The camera
packed a sad today so, sorry, no Youtube preview of the Great Northern Steeples.
We both agreed that Hypnotize would be too good on the deep track. The weight
shouldn’t stop him. As long as he is within 20 lengths of the leader at the bottom
of the hill, they will be down to a walk by the last, and he will wear them
down to get his third.
Where is
the logic in just moving the rail in 3 metres from the last meeting at
Ellerslie? It should be better going in the early couple of races down there.
Why not take it in 6 or 7 metres so most horses get fair running or just leave
it where it is? Still, depending on how it does play out in the first race, we
could have a take advantage of it in the second race which is also over 1200m.
I have
previewed most races at Ellerslie and Wanganui. But it is not a day you want to
be opening up your wallet. There are some very good races in Australia and The
Insider has found a couple of nice ones for us.
I will posting an early preview of some races later tonight.
Thursday September
2
Apologies
for not previewing the Waverley quaddie today but I couldn’t select one horse
that I had any confidence about in any of the legs. I wouldn’t have put any
money on it if I had posted a quaddie preview so why encourage you to put money
on it! As it turned out there were only two other horses on the card that I had
any confidence about and they both won – Binklebonk $3.10 and Goldmist $3.40
which got some of you a nice multi.
Many of you
have learnt to be more patient with your betting which is always a work in progress
skill for all of us. The best way to keep it in check is to write down your
bets before you have them. Keep a diary as well. I recently saw a subscriber’s
record of all of his bets and they were detailed - he is a far better punter
for it I’m sure. Another new subscriber has set a target of seeing his son’s family
in Boston next year. He is betting with a set amount each week and if it all goes,
that’s it till the following week. He won $163 for his $5 Warwick Farm quaddie yesterday
and has withdrawn $150 of it to get that target off to a good start. That is
smart money management but how many punters do it automatically? Hopefully you
do it more often now.
Jarred from
the excellent www.tipstar.co.nz site for
NZ Harness selections has kindly let us have his preview of the Forbury Park Trots
tonight. Hopefully you can make a dollar or two.
The Premier Racing Club has The Harrier racing in the last
race tomorrow and with natural improvement is a realistic chance. Courtney Van
Der Werf, the promising young apprentice we are following, looks to have a good
chance in Race 3 on Big Energy. She fought like a tiger last start and if she
can cross them again, they have to be a strong chance to hold them out.
Below is
his preview of Race 3 tonight. I may have a couple of selections for Ashburton
tomorrow. The Insider will be previewing the quaddie at the good Wyong meeting tomorrow
and will post it by 4 p.m. so he can see a few early races to see how the track
is playing. The first leg is at 5.16 p.m. We will also be doing a Youtube
preview of the Great Northern which will be posted by 5 p.m. Friday.
Race 3 #14 Acaptivatingeagle was a
touch unlucky on debut when three the fence and held up half way up the
straight. He ran up the straight not too bad when given some space but was
never really able to hit the line hard. Recently changed stables to a
very inform Stuart team - should go close at nice each way odds. #2 Sunnivue Senator was another
on debut and he went a nice race. Is well drawn here to do no extra work as he
will already be in the running line and in a good position.Last start was a stand and yet to see the
mobile so he may have some speed. #9 Silver Dollar Girl was raced
as a two year old in some very good times she just wasn’t up to them at that
age.She has had some time to develop
and will improve greatly on that experience will give a cheeky account.
Wednesday
September 1st
Isn’t it
great that Spring has finally arrived. The weather here today was perfect and
really gets you in the mood for finding those winners. Shame Paeroa had to be
abandoned but they will be racing, weather permitting, on Sunday. But it gave
The Insider and me time to go through the Warwick Farm quaddie together and it
paid off with a $2332 price and it wasn’t hard to get with the instructions given
– we just wish they were all that easy to snap up. A few of you got a slice of
it and it did pay way unders but I’m sure you won’t complain.
I’ve had a
few enquiries about paying for subscriptions with a credit card- good news, you
can now. Just email me for instructions.
For newer subscribers,
the Formpro Speed Ratings are going to be a very useful figure to take note of
in the reviews. The higher the figure the better the run. Most Open handicaps
and Weight For Age winners will rate over 110. Keep The Peace rated 119 in the
Mudgway which is very good and was the best on the day. An average maiden winner
will rate around 95, R70 around 100, R80 around 105 and R90 around 110. Most
Speed Raters overseas don’t take into account the pace of the race and don’t adjust
them accordingly. If you don’t, you simply get false readings and can be left
with a horse rating very well but in actual fact it only rated well because
other key races may have been run at a slow pace and sprinted home giving an
overall slow race time, giving the high rated horse a false high rating. It means
they come down to my judgment on occasions, but I would much rather have it
that way and I have a very good feel for the speed ratings now and you can use
them with confidence.
There is a
solid eachway bet in the second race tomorrow. No Premier bets tomorrow.
Race 2
3.Binklebonk did very well to run down the runaway leader in the straight two
starts back at Wanganui. Then next start ran a solid third in a stronger field
than this.The 2200m will suit as he is
a tough galloper and Jonathan Riddell jumps on. He is at peak fitness and is
going to be hard to keep out here.
Tuesday
August 31st
I had a
good chat with a subscriber yesterday. He had an excellent day on Saturday combining his
best selections with Show Up, one of the Premier Bets. He wasn’t able to logon
to the site until Saturday morning and was a bit upset that I had gone for Pennachio
and was prepared to watch Keep The Peace from the inside draw as he had already
backed Keep The Peace and wanted to take her in multis. But as I mentioned in
the Youtube preview, the Mudgway wasn’t the kind of race you would put the rent
on, with so many fresh up and different formlines to match up. But he was
convinced that Shaune Ritchie had her ready to win fresh, and he coupled up
Betty Brown and Show Up in multis with Keep The Peace and held his breath as
Wall Street came late at her but she was able to fight and win. He made a few
thousand dollars by backing his opinion. As I mentioned in my blog on Friday, I
am wrong in many races, and if you are convinced, after doing your homework
properly, that you have a winner, then follow your opinion. I feel that I over
analysed the Mudgway. In my early preview of the race I was very keen on her
chances, especially after her smart trial run. But I mapped her at least 4 back
on the rail after the draw which I thought would make it too tough for her to
win. But MacDonald made sure she wasn’t and got her into the right part in the
straight and those two factors were the winning of the race.
As I have
mentioned before, most races during a week are raffle races. There will be too
many questions about too many horses. The Premier Bets and Sectional Specials
are the only races where I feel we have most things going for us and those are
the bets where I know we stand an excellent chance of making money long term.
We haven’t got into the consistently Good and Dead track races yet but when we
do the form is going to be much more reliable to work out, and I’ll be doing my
very best to find the money makers for us.
If you saw
the Stipe’s Eye view of the Mudgway it was well worth recording and keeping.
They were racing off the rail for most of the way and you could see so much
more of every runner. It one of racings mysteries why Trackside don’t show them
for at least the main meeting of the week in a replay slot. Information gives
punters a reason to bet. The cost of producing it would be a fraction of the
increase in turnover it would produce.
Great to
see the bookies had the Final Field prices up just after 8 a.m. on Saturday. I
mentioned that Show Up opened at $4.20 FF but she actually opened at $4.50 FF
but by the time I went to post the selections she had dropped to $4.20 FF. That’s
why I posted her opening at $4.20 FF.
I’ve had
good feedback about the early preview of the Hastings meeting. Some liked the
likely pace of the race and which runners it may favour. Others liked the
comments about the ‘Other thoughts’ to help work out trifectas and trebles etc.
So when time allows I will preview and post some races before Saturday.
There is a
solid eachway bet at Paeroa tomorrow. No Premier bets.
Race 3
8.Tom Kiah.
He just got up for us here two back and ran a fair race on the flat next up.
Back over a course he has won over with a light weight means he will be hard to
keep out despite the class rise.
Monday August
30
I have sent
out the free login details to the Mudgway quinella competition winners and
notified current subscribers of their extended expiry date. If you haven’t
heard from me and you selected it, email me as soon as possible. There were 134
entries and 16 who struck it, so well done. Leith Innes, our guest selector,
went for Wall Street, and Keep The Peace – not bad for an armchair jockey! Good
to see he will be back riding at the end of September.
It was a top
notch ride from James MacDonald to get her handy and switch out around Fritzy
Boy instead of getting sucked into an inside run, which would surely have meant
losing by nose or more rather than winning by a nose. Shaune Ritchie had her
looking a picture and she is racing at Hastings next then on to Turnbull which was
won by Efficient last year.
I’ll have
most of the sectional reviews posted by 1 p.m. tomorrow.
Friday
August 27th
With nearly
one hundred entries in the quinella competition some of you will surely strike
a free month unless Hold It Harvey or Beautiful Girl do the decent thing for
me!
Thanks for
the feedback on the early race previews going out today. Hopefully they have
helped clarify your thoughts. Remember they are my opinions and I’m going to be
wrong in many of them, so if you are keen on one after doing your homework, don’t
let me put you off. The bookies have put up some good head to head bets in the
Mudgway which you can bet on tonight. With the track a slow 7 this afternoon and
a fine 18 degree day forecast tomorrow, it should provide a decent surface by
race time.
There is a
solid eachway bet in the fifth race tomorrow.
Race 5
10.My Keepsake is a smart mare. She won the Queensland Oaks
and showed very good ability before that in New Zealand. She will get back but
with at least an even pace likely, she can come with the last run at them and
with the weight advantage, she is going to be hard to keep out. RP $3.40
Thursday August
26th
It’s always
great to see the Stipe’s Eye view replays during the week. You can pick up so
much more. It’s a shame Trackside don’t replay them after the meeting as most
punters are working and don’t get to see them. Even having the Stipes Eye
replays of the Saturday meetings would help most punters get more information
out of them.
I will be
posting the YouTube preview of the Mudgway by 5 .00 p.m. tomorrow. Hopefully,
between The Insider and me, we can narrow it down for you.
Apologies
for posting the wrong number and horse in the last race at Woodville today.
Murphy’s Law meant it was probably going to win. Some of you were able to
notice the mistake from the comment made and get the correct horse. No excuses –
I just have to double check the numbers more carefully. I’ve posted the preview
to the Mudgway and race 5. I’ll also be posting a few more races from Hastings
throughout the day tomorrow.
There will
be a preview of the Oamaru quaddie posted by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning as well.
The
quinella competition is proving very popular. Wall Street is in most
combinations. You can enter right up until noon Saturday. Just email me at formpro@formpro.co.nz with your three
selections for the Mudgway and if you select the quinella you get a free month’s
subscription to the site. Existing subscribers will have a month added to their
sub.
Wednesday August
25th
I’ll be
previewing some of the Hastings races and posting them before Saturday. I know
many of you do your own homework so having my preview available may help you
clarify your thoughts and narrow your selections down.
I don’t
know why the bookies don’t open most markets for a big meeting such as this on
a Thursday afternoon or on Friday morning. It would generate much more interest if you
knew the odds and tried to find some value. I asked the bookies why they don’t
and they couldn’t give me an answer.
Maybe it is because they may get hit hard on
certain runners early on, but surely they would have much more time to adjust
prices to balance the book up, instead of just a few hours before the race. It is
done in Australia and it certainly helps when trying to find any value. Even if
they opened the book at 140% instead of the normal 128%, it would give punters
more time to compare odds rather than have to quickly scan the fields to find
value when they open on Saturday morning. By opening at a higher percentage it
just means the prices would generally be shorter than they would be at 128%.
We have
Final Field betting on all gallops races now which is terrific. The next step
is to reveal those markets before the day of the races to generate much more
interest. It wouldn’t make clubs happy as they get more return from tote
turnover but many punters would have the information to decide if they would
rather wait till Saturday as they may get better odds then on the tote.
The TAB is
competing against pokies and Casinos for the punters discretionary dollar. If
they want to stop the decline in interest in punting, then they have to offer
every reason for the seasoned punter to stay involved and to entice new ones.
Knowing Final Field odds before the day of the races for all meetings would
surely help stem the decline.
One Formpro
reader re-subscribed yesterday and paid for it many times over after striking a
good percentage of the $2087 quaddie at Ruakaka today. It was a stress free
last leg down the straight as we had the first three over the last 200m. Nice
trifecta as well at $121.
If you
think you can pick the Mudgway quinella with three selections, email me at formpro@formpro.co.nz before noon
Saturday and if you select it, you will win a month’s free subscription to
Formpro. If more than one selects it, then you still get the free month. So if
ten of you pick it then ten of you get a free month! Existing subscribers can
enter and if you pick it you just get an extra month added to your subscription
for free. If any of your selections are scratched then unless you email me before
noon Saturday with a new selection, you only have your two selections running
for you. I just hope Mufhasa and Wall Street don’t quinella it!
If you read
this in time there is a nice eachway bet at Sandown at 6.45 p.m. tonight. Race
7 2.Side Splitter. He has run two solid seconds on good paces. Drops to a
winnable weight with the 3kg allowance and has won a slow track 3 times and a
second on a heavy track. He should be right on the pace and is right at his
peak for this.
There is a
solid eachway bet in the second race tomorrow at Woodville. No Premier bets
tomorrow.
Race 2
4.Rangatira
won third up here in May 2009. Then at this time last year he won at Foxton on
a heavy 10 track in an R80 race. He has had four runs back now and looks nicely
placed against these to sneak a win with Hayden Tinsley jumping on board.
Tuesday August
24th
It’s good
to get the feedback on the synthetic track debate. The first one I feel should
be placed at Cambridge over the current track there with a more orthodox shape.
It would be easier to get to when Central districts tracks are cancelled as
well as Waikato meetings. If a midweek meeting per week could be scheduled
there it would give trainers, punters and owners certainty. Trainers could race
their horses more often and as the Geelong track has proven, it can cope with
three meetings on successive days so it would soon pay for itself. Many punters
cut their betting back over the wet months but a synthetic track would take the
bog track factor out of analyzing the form and they will bet more. Putting them
inside existing tracks needs to be well thought out as they could be too tight.
There is a
good eachway bet at Ruakaka tomorrow. No Premier bets.
Race 4 6.Ma
Belle Ami won on debut here over 1000m after disputing the pace from a similar
draw. She then raced in the much stronger Matamata Breeders Stakes and showed
good early speed but wilted from the 200m mark. With plenty of time to grow,
she should come out stronger here and with James McDonald on board, she should
get every chance to win.
Monday
August 23rd
I’ll tell
you what, I’m looking forward to a great day of racing at Hawke’s Bay this
Saturday. Remember last year’s meeting when Tavistock and Wall Street won? The
good horses will be coming out to play. The challenge is to work out which ones
are fit and good enough to win. I’ve had a few responses to my early Mudgway preview.
With the forecast showing rain at times on Thursday then clearing till
Saturday, the track should be no worse than a Slow 8 and with wind forecast it
may dry out to Dead- here’s hoping.
Last
Saturday I just couldn’t get interested in a bet on the New Zealand races with
the bog tracks. It is hard enough trying to sort out a winner let alone trying
to work out if it can handle the mud. I spent $20 on a Taranaki quaddie and backed the
premier bets in Australia which all missed. Curtana didn’t appear happy on the
Slow track and few runners made ground on the inside biased track which Ron
Dufficy described as a goat track. I wonder how he would describe some of our recent
tracks! Pinwheel got caught in a pocket and got clear too late to run a fast
closing second. That’s racing and I’m keen to make amends this week.
I will be
posting the sectionals from all North Island meetings from now on. When it
rains on the day and the track gets progressively slower throughout the day,
they aren’t as useful but some of you may like to know them anyway. The Speed
Ratings won’t be done on some tracks because of that reason and on very heavy
tracks as well.
I’ll be
doinga Youtube preview of the Mudgway
with The Insider this Friday. You will also get achance to win a free one month subscription
to Formpro as well. I’ll mention details later in the week.
Friday
August 20th
I’ve spent
most of the day going through the New Zealand and Australian form and I don’t
feel confident about any one horse on the bog tracks in New Zealand. I have
previewed the quaddie at Ellerslie and Taranaki. Glass
Half Full looks the obvious standout bet in New Zealand in the fifth race but
the bookies will open her at around $2.00 if you are lucky and she hasn’t won
in a bog. Being by Van Nistelrooy she would prefer better ground so you wouldn’t
risk your mortgage payment on her at evens. So I suggest looking for some value
in the race to beat the favourite.
11.Young Yachtie could just be the one. Two
starts back he was back to the turn, but when clear was given a couple and ran
in. The rider had to straighten him a couple of times but he closed very well
late over the 1200m. Then next start in the much stronger Ryder Stakes he
settled back and kept battling on through horses. He is bred to handle the bog
and will be fitter now. Craig Grylls jumps on and he can use the whip in the
left hand and is a strong rider, so he could be the upsetter over a more
suitable 1400m.
I have gone
through the Australian form and have at least one sectional special sorted out. I'll post it tomorrow morning.
Thursday
August 19th
Some
interesting feedback on the racetrack issue. For example, if we are going to
reduce track numbers, the ones that are left are going to have to have modern
facilities like Ellerslie and Awapuni. If Trentham is going to be kept, do they
spend millions on a new stand there or relocate to an area near Wellington
without a very wet micro-climate?
With the
tight Rangiora Track and course issues there, why not reshape the track to a
more orthodox shape and put a Synthetic track down there. It would make for an
ideal training centre and any cancelled meetings on the West Coast or within
the top half of the South Island could quickly be transferred to there. Also,
many wet month meetings could be raced there and Riccarton would have a chance
to recover properly.
One
Australian reader mentioned that many don’t like the tightness of Geelong
inside synthetic track and should we be completely replacing some grass tracks
on the course proper with synthetic tracks?
We have the
Inter-Provincial race at New Plymouth on Saturday and it is uses one of the
most ridiculous things I have ever seen in racing. They use representative
rugby colours for the riders’ silks. Unless your horse is a clear leader, trying
to follow a horse or horses you have backed in the race is like trying to find
a golfball in the snow- you have little chance. The concept is good but even when I do the video
comments for the race, I have to triple check that I have the right horse, so
what chance does the punter have of knowing he or she has the right horse when
watching it live? Why not have
distinctive colours on the caps and slip on coloured bands for the top half of
the arm? It would still give the race that Inter Provincial feel but would at
least give punters a chance to follow their horses. Plus, the owner of the
winner I’m sure would much rather have their own colours in the winning photo.
There is a
solid eachway bet at Te Aroha tomorrow. There are no Premier bets.
Race 2
1.Hottenov.
He ran two very good races first and second up and then was flat in the bog at
Tauranga. He has had a chance to freshen up and from the handy draw will get a
nice trip in behind the pace and be hard to keep out.
Wednesday
August 18th
After
ringing the helpdesk at the TAB today they informed me Australia were having
trouble from their end with commingling into our quaddie pools. But it will be
happening just as soon as it is sorted out. Other exotics will also be
commingled.
Interesting
to see that Cameron George has kicked off some good debate by saying that we
could cut our racetracks down to around fifteen from our current fifty three
tracks. Most of us would agree with reducing numbers but how do we go about it?
We can debate it till the cows come home, but it just needs someone in power to
get all the relevant information, make the hard decisions and just do it.
There were
races at Geelong today on the synthetic track, and Bendigo has been transferred
to Geelong tomorrow and there are races there on Friday as well. That track is
paying for itself quicker than expected. The three logical places for Synthetic tracks
in New Zealand, in order of priority are inside the Awapuni track because of
its location for Central District racing, Cambridge, because the horse
population is there, and Riccarton, because of its location. It would also give
the grass track at Riccarton 6 or 7 months to recover after racing in the good
weather months.
Cameron
George also mentioned that he would be trying to introduce the publishing of
all penetrometer readings from all around the track. This would be great. They
are currently publishing the number of mls of rain being dropped on courses in
the lead up days. I’ve been keen to get these readings published for punters so
we can decide for ourselves if there is likely to be any bias towards certain
parts of the tracks, especially when the rail is taken in. Also, if we know the
readings are higher from say the 1400m mark and further back and better in
front of that mark, we will know for example that the track could be a true
Good from the 1400m and Dead behind that mark. Or the straight could be faster
or slower than the back straight.
Information
for punters means they will just have more reasons to invest their money.
With no
racing at Foxton tomorrow there will be no selections here or in Australia.
Tuesday
August 17th
I see on
Racenet that they have announced co-mingling with our Quaddie and other exotic
pools. This is positive news as betting into $20 to $30K pools for the quaddies
isn’t very enticing. Of course, it won’t make it any easier to pick but if you
do strike one which excludes most or all favoured runners you are much more likely
to get a much better value payout.
We’ll see
how much the quaddie increases at Rotorua tomorrow.
There is a
solid eachway bet at Rotorua tomorrow. There may be a Premier Bet.
Race 2
2.The
Hague. He did nothing at Te Awamutu on debut but showed much better form next
start at Tauranga in the heavy ground. He raced second outer, was under a ride
3rd 200m out but kept on giving to run a game second. The rider just
needs to ride with less body movement down the straight and the full effect of
the 2.5kgs could be enough to get him home this time.
Monday
August 16th
It’s a long
blog today but I have a couple of points I am keen to get across.
A long time
subscriber who does his form thoroughly, backed the Waikato Stud Foxbridge
Plate winner Bulginbaah through a logical process of elimination. His first
choice, St Germaine, according to trainer John Sargent, was more than likely going
to need the run, so the only obvious one when the rain came was Bulginbaah. It
was the first time he had backed the horse straight out for a win. He paid the
excellent price of $7.50. So here was a case of receiving information that a
punter was able to use to make money. I occasionally get information about horses
that for one reason or another, means it probably won’t win. Of course they can
make liars of the provider of the information occasionally but knowing that a
horse is not ready to win, can really help you narrow down the race to one or
two winning chances.
Often just
knowing that a horse can be eliminated because of unsuitable track conditions
can make you more confident. Voodoo Vixen was a good example at Riccarton on
the first day. Conchord was being well backed but he needed it deeper so she
looked great value at around $10 with James McDonald on board. But I can get it
wrong as well. Just yesterday, a subscriber emailed me earlier in the day
asking me why I didn’t select Tudor Bubble after her excellent Speed Rating of
117 ( Faster than Eric The Viking -111 on the same day). The reason was the
heavy 11 track condition. I spoke to the trainer before her New Plymouth win
and he mentioned he was concerned if the track stayed heavy that day as she has
done best on Slow or better tracks. If the track had been a Slow 9 or better yesterday
we would have been in boots and all, but I was prepared to let her go round stepping
up in class and from the inside draw. She showed a real will to win after being
headed on the turn. She will be aimed at the Fillies and Mares races now and
they look ideal for her.
Many of you
made some good money off the Premier bets over the last week with 5 out of the
6 selections winning. Remember to withdraw the profits and leave your float in
for this week. My motto to myself over the Winter has been to be very patient
and just select the very best placed horses and let the prices take care of
themselves. From May 17th 2009 ( when I started the Premier
bets)to the end of August 2009, I used
$300 per week for 16 weeks for a total input of $4800. The balance at the end
of those 16 weeks was $8900 for a net profit of $4,100. For the same period
this year from May 16th and with two weeks to go I used $300 for 14
weeks for a total of $4,200 for a return of $8963 and a net profit of $4763 so
we have improved on last year. Some subscribers have been following the Premier
Bets with the same amount and staking plan suggested. Some have made more, some
less, depending on what odds they have got. Some have joined in at various
stages over the last 15 months. If you have been thinking about having a
separate account just for the Premier Bets, then I suggest it is a bit like
buying your first house. Just get into it as soon as you can afford to
otherwise you never will and keep waiting for the right time.
The
Sectional Specials have proved very profitable also with 9 selections for 6 x
winners and 3 x seconds. When we get the better tracks the number of these bets
will increase and I’ll be doing my best to keep the strike rate up.
Always keep
one thing in mind when just backing my Premier Bets. Think long term and forget
about the weekly ups and downs. Last week we had a return of $1798 from the
original $300. The two previous weeks returned duck eggs. Before that $2165 and
$1167 was returned. There will be times when we have losing runs of say 3 or 4
weeks or maybe even more. But the ones who bet what they can afford to commit
to each week and not feel as though they have to win to pay the rent or
mortgage for the week, will stick to it and reach their target. One subscriber
has a swimming pool she is saving for. I’m looking forward to the opening BBQ ceremony
as I know if she sticks to the plan she will get there. Others are saving for a
betting bank or other targets.
There is a dark
side to punting though. Some punters find that they can follow my selections
but when they collect blow it on impulsive bets and never get ahead. If you
find you are betting more than you can really afford and losing, you need to
get a grip and decide if you need help. How do you know if you have a problem?
If you are using borrowed money or money that should be spent on the people you
care about or other priorities, then you definitely need help. A young
subscriber got in touch with me a couple of weeks ago and told me has now given
up betting and has been getting help because he had lost control. His betting
had got him into trouble and he realized he was getting in too deep so he had
the guts to get help. He is so much happier now. Have a look at this site here
if you have decided that you need help. Or
if you want to discuss it with me, text me on 027 3526402 and I will call you
back.
Have a
great week.
Friday
August 13th
Amazing
what a freshener can do for a race tipster. I should take a few days break more
often! Three selections for three winners at Taupo today with both Premier bets
winning easily. The decent surface made it so much more interesting.
Trainer, Brian
Jenkins made some very interesting comments on Trackside today about the
Geelong Synthetic track.
‘It doesn’t
bottom them out and they can back up quicker. It allows owners more opportunities
to make a dollar. Generally, my horses recover well from racing here and other
trainers are happy to race here as they do recover well. Betting is up 7.6% on
meetings transferred to here as punters find the form reliable and usually the
best and fittest horses win.’
So here is
the answer to our problems. We just need to sell off any unproductive assets
and we can have a consistently good racing surface to race and punt on. It just
needs someone to make the decision and to follow it through despite any
minority protests.
The Money
Shot has no selections for tonight but he will be emailing his thoughts in the
morning, which I will post by 9 a.m. He does a weekly radio slot on Trackside
radio at 10.55 a.m. on Saturday morning. That sports show from 10 a.m. to 11
a.m. is well worth listening to. I was driving last week whilst listening to it
and got some valuable and profitable information.
There is a good
bet in the Grand National Steeples tomorrow.
Race 7
1.Yourtheman
in last week’s warm up for this ran second to stablemate Counter Punch. But the
placings could have been reversed. Coming to the last Isaac Lupton rode
Counterpunch into the last and he jumped it well and went on to win. Daniel
Stackhouse eased off on Yourtheman and he scrambled over when he looked to have
his measure before they jumped it. He stuck on gamely for second and that was
his first run for 21 days so is definitely going to improve with that run. He
loves the mud and will be right at his peak for this. Currently $3.00 on Final
Field betting.
Thursday
August 12th
I’ve been
able to sneak a few days off and recharge the batteries. You can’t keep trying
to peak week after week so a few days of rest and recreation has certainly done
the trick. Apologies for not keeping the Blog up to date but I’ll make up for
it over the next few days.
With
$100,000 plus quaddie pools likely this Saturday, I’ll be putting in plenty of
homework on those races at Te Rapa and Riccarton.
I had a
couple of emails asking if Favela Star was going to be a Sectional Special ( as
he was last start when winning) at Brisbane yesterday. The heavy track put me
off him and I was hoping he would get beaten so we could get a decent price
next up but won well in the end. He’s a very promising Captain Rio 4 year old
and has shown that he can now win on Good Dead and Heavy tracks.
I’ve also
had a few emails about the Youtube previews. They will start up again soon as
they proved popular. I’m not sure if The Insider is too keen on getting makeup
applied as one reader suggested, but I’ll see what I can do.
Can Tiger
come back this week? Class is permanent and form temporary, and he is probably, mentally,
the toughest athlete in the world.
There may
be a Premier bet at Taupo tomorrow. There is a solid eachway bet in the first
race.
Race 1
3.Mackadoo
ran a strong closing second on debut at Te rapa after jumping evenly and settling
3 back on the fence. He has a had a chance to freshen up and grow a bit and
from the handy draw should get a nice trip behind the pace and prove hard to
keep out.
Monday August 9th
Earlier this year John Sargent announced that he was establishing a South Island stable based in Chistchurch. Andrew Carston will run the stable and he has confirmed that top rider David Walsh will be riding for the stable. Mark Du Plessis will still be riding the stable’s runners in big races down there when he can.
Young Centaur and Kiwi Hustler, along with a few other mainly one win horses, will be travelling down very soon to kick off their campaigns. Sargent trained 80 winners last season with the best strike rate of 5.83 of the top thirty trainers. With this move along with David Walsh joining the team,that total has every chance of increasing.
He has horses you can get involved in and can be reached on 021 577 055 for more information.
Friday August 6th
On the very odd occasion I strike a Saturday where I just can't select a horse with any confidence. This is close to one of those weekends. I've been trying to find a horse at Counties and I have found one which should be a solid eachway bet, which I have outlined below. The rain looks as though it won't arrive until after the races at Riccarton which is good to see. The Northern raiders invariably clean up over the three days and it should be no different this time round. I have found some well placed bets there.
A new subscriber asked me what RP stands for after my selections. It stands for Rated Price. The lower the RP, the better chance I feel it has.
Counties Race 5
4.Tackytu won impressively in this class at Rotorua after being taken on nearly. Then next start he stepped up to R80 class at Te Rapa and didn't fire in the straight after being on the pace. Back to R70 class with Alvin Ng claiming 2kgs he looks much better placed. He handles a heavy track and can easily bounce back here.
Thursday August 5th
With both tracks on Saturday being heavy and with rain forecast, it is going to be day where you have to be selective in what you back. There is a real Northern assault on Riccarton and I’ve got some very good bets sorted out for there.
I’m really battling with Counties to select something with confidence. It may depend on how the track actually pans out on the day there.
Some of the good horses are starting to reappear in Australia. I nearly always like to see their first run then assess how well they have come back. They were raving about Shoot Out last Saturday but you couldn’t back him next start on his Speed Rating and sectional splits.
There is a solid eachway bet in the first race tomorrow as long as the monsoon stays away! No Premier Bets or Sectional Specials.
Whangarei Race 1
3.Flash Hapi did well on debut here. He sat outside the leader and didn’t stop trying all the way to the line and there was a gap to third. He looked as though he would definitely improve with the run as well. Has the early pace to get on the pace one off and with a soft mid-race sectional, he is going to be much harder to keep out.
Wednesday August 5th
Some interesting questions about the Speed Ratings.One reader asked if a horse rated at say 105 on a Slow track is just as fast as the horse rated 105 on a Good track. The answer is more than likely no. You have to take into account each individual horse’s form. If both met on a Good track, more than likely the Slow track horse which rated 105 would probably get beaten by the other horse. But then again, the slow track rater may have rated higher than 105 on a good track in a previous race, so you know the horse is near or at peak form.
So, whilst the Speed Ratings give us a good indication of the horse’s ability to run time, you still have to do your homework to see if it still well placed to win. It just gives you the confidence that you have the evidence to say this horse is one of the fastest horses in the race on the right track condition.
Class and weight ratings are also a good indicator of a horse’s ability but trying to assess a horse’s class is very open to opinion. With Speed Ratings and sectionals, it is based more on factual information.
Shame about Tauranga and Foxton being called off. Just two more reasons why we need a synthetic track to race on. Cancellations cost many industry players a lot of money. It should be a top priority and it would pay for itself sooner, rather than later.
Tuesday August 3
I’ve had many enquiries about the speed ratings. Rather than reply to each one in detail, I’ve said I’ll explain them as best as I can in the blog. So here we go. If you have any questions about them, please ask, as many may be thinking the same thing.
A Speed Rating (SR) is a number given to horse which indicates how fast it is. For example, Open Class horses can rate up to around 120 or be as low as 90.
As a guide the average R90 race rates around 110. The average R80 race rates around 105, R70 100 and maidens 95. I adjust the daily ratings to take into account the track conditions on the day. For example, if they average 15 points below average on a Dead track I’ll adjust them up accordingly. I will also adjust the times to take into account individual tracks. For example, New Plymouth’s 1800m races go round two bends where as the 1600m races go round just the one. Trentham sprint times down the chute are run faster than the times on the course proper so they are adjusted to take this into account. I’m not prepared to reveal these adjustments as they have taken me a lot of time to work out. Those adjustments plus the pace of the race adjustments explained below, help me get a more reliable speed figure.
I’ll also use the sectionals to work out how truly run the races were. For example, I often use the best field on the day as the benchmark for the Ratings. This is crucial to finding out if the lower class field’s times are an accurate reflection of the strength of the field. The American and Australian Speed Raters don’t do this which is where they fall down I feel. I have found that if I can adjust the SR to a more accurate one based on the pace of the races, they are much more reliable. It does make them more subjective but I have much more faith in them than unadjusted ones.
Let’s take a good recent example. King Victor on July 2nd Rated 106 and was by far the best rated on the day. So I had the proof that he could at least win up to R80 class. Next start he dropped back in distance and found the line late. Then two weeks ago he stepped up to a much more suitable distance of 1800m against a very average field with inferior speed ratings in a 1 win and maiden Special Conditions field. So on Speed Ratings alone he looked very well placed.
But you can’t just take the Speed Ratings in isolation. You have to make sure the race maps okay for it, the track conditions are suitable and all the other important factors say it is the best horse in the race and can win. I’m always trying to find a reason it can get beaten, then if I still think it can win, reflect that reasoning in my Rated Price.
With Don Dixit last week, when I first looked at the field, I thought he would find the track a bit too quick to win, but after analyzing his last run where he had a personal speed rating of 115 on the slow 9 track, which was faster than the Opunake Cup winner, I felt on a true Slow 8 track which was posted on Saturday morning he could still win as long as they ran around a 1.38 time. He tried his best and was beaten by Midday Hero which had a cosy run 3 back on the fence from the number 1 barrier draw. Ironically, I wrote an article for The Informant last week about the advantages of drawing the inside barrier! I had a few emails about the selection with justifiable comments. It was a borderline selection but I only just got it wrong and it all comes down to opinion.
You can use the Speed Rating figure to compare horses on any track on any surface. But I feel they will really come into their own once we get consistently better tracks. I’ll be focusing on Australian Sectional Specials a bit more too. As you may have noticed, many of my selections tend to drop in price rather than increase, but the pools are obviously much bigger on Australia racing and I’m sure with some carefully chosen selections, we will do well long term.
With Tauranga cancelled tomorrow, The Insider has some selections for Australia. I will post those by noon.
