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How to Win Big On Trifectas
By Neil Davis
Trifectas have the attraction of a big return for a comparatively small outlay. But the big plus is, that with percentage betting, you can scale the bet to fit your budget.
But how do you strike the good priced ones in gallops? Simple, find the false favourites and make the most of it.
The Win pool and Trifecta pools are completely separate pools but the win prices do influence the trifecta prices. If a horse is being talked up on Trackside and it starts coming down in price many punters will follow and anchor it or include it in their trifecta combinations.
But if you can go against the crowd and bet against it winning or even better, not filling a place, you are going to get value for money. That is the key to making a long term profit with any punting.
You can’t expect to win every week. Using the method I’ve outlined below, if you can get 2 or 3 out of 10 trifectas you stand a very good chance of making a profit over the period of a year, as the ones you strike will more than likely cover the losses.
The key is identifying the false favourites and having the nerve to go against the crowd. Remember, statistics are in your favour -70% of favourites don’t win. So, if you can find a race in which you feel the favourite has little chance of getting into a place, then those races are like precious gems.
So what do you look out for when trying to identify a false favourite?
Below are the main ones I look for.
1/ I’ll start with my two favourites. It’s when a horse’s body language indicates before the start, that it is not going to perform as expected. I’ve explained a recent example below. I’ll be writing an article on this topic alone next month.
2/ The horse may be ridden by a top in-form rider and punters are backing it mainly for that reason.
3/ An unfavourable draw – on Good or Dead tracks a wide draw with a short run to the first bend is tough to overcome. On a Slow or Heavy track an inside draw can count against it. The draw is another topic on it’s own.
4/ Second up after a hard run first up, especially when it has not performed 2nd up before.
5/ A poor winning strike rate.
6/ The pattern of the race may not suit the favourite. It may be a back runner with very few on- pace runners which could make it difficult to make up ground in a sprint home.
7/ It has not performed in the prevailing track conditions.
8/ Racing at a distance or track that it has consistently not performed at.
9/ Not raced for 21 days or less. Especially so if most of its wins have been within 21 days of its last start.
10/ All of its form has been one way of going and it has failed going the other way.
11/ It’s best times on a Good track surfaces are not as fast as other fit horses.
And of course, the sectionals can be a very good indicator of a horse going off form. E.g. It gets a soft lead then fights on up the straight for a 2 length third, when others are running faster last 600m sectionals.
That alone will save you many dollars and signal that you can bet against it next up.
There are many other reasons but they are some of the main ones to look out for.
I mentioned in Number 1 above about a horse’s body language indicating that it is not ready to win.
The most recent example I can use was on Sunday September 10th at Taupo.
In Race 9, Tatlock was sent out a hot favourite at $1.65 for a win. Just eight days before he raced at Hastings and hung badly throughout the race. He proved a difficult ride for Lisa Cropp, finishing 8 lengths behind winner Kay’s Awake.
In this much weaker field, he had the performances behind him to justify his favouritism.
But if you watched his preliminary, which was shown on Trackside, he did exactly the same thing that he did in his prelim at Hastings – he hung.
At Hastings he sweated up badly before the race, which, combined with the hanging, indicated, that he was a bad bet.
He did not sweat up anywhere near as badly at Taupo but his tail was flat against his backside and he was reluctant to go into the barrier which all added up to him saying, ‘I don’t want to be here’.
And that is how he raced. He couldn’t muster any early speed despite the urgings of Lisa Cropp and when he got going around the top he started to lay in and was even worse in the straight. He finished on for fourth.
So that was a race to get stuck into the trifecta. The trifecta with 4th win favourite, Point Guard, with the 3rd and 2nd win favourites paid $264.20 in a 7 horse field. One horse had no show in the race, Vermont, which finished a long last.
You could have narrowed your bets down and taken 3 horses to win, 4 for second and 5 for third, for a $27 dollar outlay and would have got it without too much stress.
Of course it wasn’t a huge trifecta. You generally won’t get a $1000 plus trifecta in 8 horse fields or less. So to get the big ones, we still use the same principles of sorting out the false favourites, but bet on fields of 12 or more. If you see a false favourite in a smaller field, still bet in it but keep your cost down. The dividends, long term, will not give you the big boost you will need to keep the bank growing. But in the right races, the smaller ones are the bread and butter.
The chances of a favourite getting beaten in bigger sized fields are increased anyway, simply by the fact that he has more horses to beat and more things can go wrong.
That brings us to the staking plan.
I’ll guarantee 95% of the people reading this article, won’t persist with this plan of attack, because they will have the inevitable five or six losses in a row and go for the favourites again in their combinations.
The 5% that will persevere will have every chance of striking the occasional big ones that make it all worthwhile.
Here’s the key with betting on Trifectas – expect to lose around 80% of the time and build that into your staking and money management plan.
Say your budget for trifectas is $100 per week. Put that $100 away for 10 weeks in a row, don’t have another bet on trifectas, and try it out on paper. After 10 weeks, you will have discovered how to do this properly.
If you have to have a trifecta bet, do it for a $5 or $10 percentage bet which will give you a 5% or 10% bet on a 4x5x8 trifecta. That way you aren’t risking the bulk of your bank but still stand a good chance of getting a big one and bumping up you bank whilst developing your skills.
Once you have got to a bank of $1000 you can bet a percentage of it on each trifecta bet. I suggest betting 2% or $20 on your first one, then after each day of betting, readajust your bet to 2% of the balance. E.g. If it goes up to $1200 your next bet is $24. If it goes down to $800, still bet that $20 until your balance increases over $1000. That way you know it will take 50 losses in row to wipe out your bank.
In the meantime, build up a reserve bank of the same amount, just in case you have a real drought. Having that in place will give you extra confidence also.
Boxing horses up is an easy way of covering all combinations, but you will need to strike a lot more trifectas than you could reasonably expect to make a long term profit.
So we need to cut our costs down. Instead of boxing up 6 horses for $120, with a bit more study you could reduce the cost dramatically and take a 4x5x6 combination for $64 or a 3x4x8 combination for $54.
Once you have sorted out a race where you think the favourite can get beaten in a field of 12 or more runners, you have to decide what are the realistic chances of winning. If you can only see 2 or 3 then that’s great, as it will keep your outlay down. If there are 2 or 3 more that you can only see pushing the winners, they get added in for second, along with your horses for first, then the third placegetter is where you get the big trifectas.
When doing the form, go through each runner and cross it off if you give it absolutely no show of getting near a place. If you can say, yes, it could get into a place, then put it in for third.
After you have gone through the field carefully, then include all of your picks for first and second in your third place selections.
Below I’ve detailed some common combinations for the cost of $1 units.
The first digit is the number of horses taken for first, the second one is for second placegetters and the third is for third placegetters.
2x3x5 $12
2x3x6 $16
2x4x6 $24
3x4x5 $27
3x4x6 $36
3x4x8 $54
3x5x5 $36
3x5x8 $72
3x6x6 $60
4x5x6 $64
4x5x7 $80
4 x5x8 $96
4x6x10 $160
Here’s an example.
I’ll use letters to describe horses.
A, B and C for first
ABCDE for second
ABCDEFGH for third
That’s a 3x5x8 combination and will cost $72 in $1 units or a minimum of $5 for 6%
Sometimes you will sort out the winners alright but have real trouble selecting only 2 or 3 more for second, so in that case just include them all for 2nd and 3rd, excluding the hopeless chances.
You may be thinking, do I include the favourite for 2nd or 3rd? If you are confident that it will get beaten, back your judgement and exclude it. It is best if you can.
But if you are not that confident, put it in for 2nd or 3rd. It increases the cost but in a good sized field, especially if it is a less than $2 favourite, if it gets beaten, the return can sometimes be worthwhile. It just comes down to how confident you are about it getting beaten.
Another type of trifecta bet that I use on occasions is the AB x AB x Field trifecta. This is ideal when you have got two horses, and it may include a favourite, that you are very keen on for first and second.
So you take them for first and second in any order and the field for third. In a good sized field, if you can get a $5 place or more chance up for third, it can give you chance of a really big one, especially if you’re A or B selection is not the favourite. I don’t do it very often, but I have had tremendous dividends from relatively small outlays over the years.
Sometimes the favourite will slot into third – accept it, because all you want is the odd real outsider to make it very worthwhile.
It’s uncanny really, but about four hours before I posted this article, there was a race at Avondale that was ideal for an AB trifecta.
There were two horses that I was very keen on to fight it out, Yendarra and Doryman. The favourite, Waiknotme, hadn’t raced for 28 days, was also carrying equal topweight of 58kgs on a downgraded Heavy track, so there was a good chance of him feeling the pinch in the last 200m over a 1600m slog in the mud.
They both fought it out with the lesser favoured Yendarra wearing down Doreyman. Tuscan Sun was able to hang on for third at $2.85, while favourite Waiknotme battled on for fourth after being second at the 300m.
The trifecta paid a handy $317.55. For the cost of $18 for $1 units, you can see that you would have to lose the next 18 AB trifecta bets to break about even.
You may be thinking, ok, it’s easy to be a wise guy after the event, but I did post in the selections for the day, that they were the only two I liked in the race. But believe me, it doesn’t always work out as easy as that.
When co-mingling of the betting pools between Australia and New Zealand takes place, in 2007, the take out on trifecta betting will be reduced from 25 per cent to 20 per cent, increasing the average trifecta dividend on gallops meetings from $1000 to $1066.60.
That is going to be another reason to do your homework on Trifecta betting.
In summing up:
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Thirdly, and most importantly, accept the fact that you are going to lose more bets that you are going to win and build that into your staking plan. You will then get through those losing streaks. But when those winning streaks come, or you strike the occasional big one, they will be the cream on the cake and will pay for your trip to the Melbourne Cup and hopefully back again.
If you decide to do use these tactics, please let me know how you get on.
Also, if there is something that I have not explained clearly, let me know.
Good luck.
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