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Front Running Profits
If all you backed were horses that looked like they would get an uncontested lead, and were well placed to win, I’m sure you would make a long term profit.
In fact, to help prove the point, I went through my Bets of the Day since July 2006, when the site started, and there were ten selections that were based on their ability to lead and win. Six of them won, and based on the Value Staking plan a profit of $1144 based on $10 units would have been made. ( See table below)
|
Date |
Horse |
Rated price |
TAB price |
Value
Factor |
Bet |
Placed |
Collect |
Net Profit or Loss |
|
21/04/07 |
Blue Ranger |
$2.00 |
$8.50FF |
4.3 |
$129 |
2nd |
|
-129 |
|
17/02/07 |
Antipodean |
$1.50 |
$3.00FF |
2 |
$60 |
1st |
$180 |
+120 |
|
3/02/07 |
The Pooka |
$1.70 |
$2.50 |
1.5 |
$45 |
2nd |
|
-45 |
|
2/12/06 |
Sir Slick |
$1.80 |
$4.25FF |
2.4 |
$72 |
3rd |
- |
-72 |
|
18/11/06 |
Sir Slick |
$1.80 |
$4.20FF |
2.3 |
$69 |
1st |
$289.80 |
+220.80 |
|
21/10/06 |
Tom Tom Cat |
$1.50 |
$4.60FF |
3.1 |
$93 |
1= |
$213.90 |
+120.90 |
|
7/10/06 |
Aftershock |
$1.80 |
$4.75FF |
2.6 |
$78 |
1st |
$370.50 |
+292.50 |
|
23/09/06 |
Giovanni |
$2.00 |
$5FF |
2.5 |
$75 |
1st |
$375.00 |
+300.00 |
|
2/09/06 |
Shamrock Star |
$2.60 |
$4.00FF |
1.5 |
$30 |
1st |
$120 |
+90.00 |
|
15/0706 |
Star Of Rio |
$2.20 |
$4.00 |
1.8 |
$36 |
Missed |
- |
-36 |
What are the advantages of being in front?
1/ It will be out of trouble
2/ It’s not going to cover extra ground.
3/ If the horse enjoys racing in front and can roll along at its optimum cruising speed, and get an easy time up front, its going to have plenty left when the pressure goes on at the turn.
How do you find a horse that is likely to get an uncontested lead?
Using my racebook or TAB PDF formguides I go through races where there is plenty of exposed form and mark all horses with where I think they will be once they settle.
These are the abbreviations I use beside each horse codes.
L = Lead
P = On Pace
M= Midfield
B= Back
Sometimes L/P if it has shown that it can lead or sit outside the leader. If only one or two horses look likely to take up the pace it immediately gets more of my attention.
Once I have found a horse that looks as though it should lead and not get pressurized in front, I will look at its most recent runs to see if it is good enough to lead all the way. This is really a judgement call, and depends on your knowledge of the other horses in the race.
I watch all NZ gallops races and have a very good idea of what most horses are capable of.
If it is dropping back in class or racing over a more favourable distance, it may well be worth a bet. I also have the advantage of knowing what sort of tempo most races are run at as I work out the sectionals of most NZ races. For example, if a horse ran its first 600m of a 1200m race flat out in front because it was taken on, then wilts over the last 200m, I know, when it strikes a race where it is likely to get a softer lead, it is going to be much harder to beat.
Let’s take a recent example.
On May 19 2007 at Awapuni, The Bighearted was the only horse likely to lead in a field of nine runners. At his last start, he set the terms in an Open Handicap, was headed at the 150m and fought right to the line for third. In this particular weaker R92 race he had been given topweight with 58kgs but with apprentice, Patrick Bell on board, he was able to claim a handy 2kgs.
So now he not only looked likely that he’d get an uncontested lead, but he was well weighted to win. Plus, that was his first run for 6 weeks last start, so he looked ready to lead all the way.
I rated him a $2.80 chance and as the race started, he soon made the lead. From there, Bell was able to let him bowl along in front at a moderate pace. Passing the 600m it soon became obvious he was the one to beat as the others were starting to scrub up and he was still pinging along nicely.
At the 300m he kicked hard and was simply too fast for them in the straight winning comfortably.
He ended up paying $4.40 on the tote and a bit less on Fixed Odds.
It doesn’t always work out that way but all you need is a 30% strike rate to make yourself a good profit long term.
You are probably familiar with the Formpro Stable where I add horses that look as though there is a profit in them in their next few starts.
Most punters haven’t got the time to study all the runs at a meeting but if you specialized in front runners, it wouldn’t take that much time to go through the replays, and I’m sure you would do very well over a period of time.
If you decide to do this, I would also note how much early speed it has from the barriers. Some front runners can be a bit tardy to begin but after a few strides can accelerate through or round to the front. But if they can’t get a clear early passage, it does mean it can get caught in a position it doesn’t race well in.
You could also note if it is taken on and how hard they were going up front. If it faded late in a fast run race in a good field, put it down as one to watch out for when it is better placed to get an uncontested lead.
The same principals can be used in harness racing. In fact, it is probably easier to build up a stable as often the lead times and sectionals published, can tell you the tempo of the race.
Looking out for an uncontested leader and working out that it should lead and have every chance of winning, can be one of the most satisfying challenges in this punting game. When it comes off, it is a great thrill. One of the best thrills I got last year was with a smart horse called Aftershock. Everything pointed to him winning. He looked to be the only leader, had the early pace to get the front, and had by far the fastest time over 1600m.
I rated him a $1.80 chance and couldn’t believe my eyes when the Bookies opened him at $4.75 on Final Field betting. I couldn’t tap out the bet quick enough to make sure I got some of that.
At the start of the race he quickly bounded to the lead and was able to dictate to them right until the turn. Cathy Treymane soon asked him to go and cleared out to win impressively.
So when you can find them, they can really be worth their weight in gold. | 
