1.Felaar looks ready and only bad luck beats him like a streaker getting in his way. Never in doubt! $2
18.Danzdanzdance is primed to win. 4.Mission Hill also relaxed and ready. She just lost her spot when the pressure went on but I doubt if she would have won if she had got out earlier. -50 units Balance 0. It had to happen soon. Back for the last race.
Race 8 1.Julius looks terrific and ready to win again. Too big too strong. Back for the big one soon.
Wingatui Race 7 1.Excelleration – earlier Boots ‘n’ all won from the back and with Pipiana setting an even pace, she will get every chance to get over these with that uphill last 200 metres. 20 units at $1.80FF 2nd had her chance. -20 units. Balance 30 units with that invested on the Derby.
1.Contessa Vanessa and 4.Marcellina look terrific and look the two.
5.Astor she can miss the jump by a length or so and from 1 at the barrier may end up 3 back on the inner and I’m convinced the inside is the best place to be. So at $1.90 she is no value so pass on her. Got that wrong after she pinged nicely and led and proved too powerful.
3.Sacred Day looks like a coiled snake and very ready to win.
An open race but 5.Tiptronic and 8.Ruby Armani looks ready.
6.Ruby Love and 7.Soroc both looked very fit. Both ew chances. Good ride by Maija Vance to hold on at $8 and got out to $10 FF. Quinella with Ruby was $17
7.Endean Express looks very well and is a nice eachway bet to start with.
Apologies, but due to circumstances beyond my control, I couldn’t make it to the course, so I’ll be doing the Birdcage Bully and other updates off the TV. Suggested quaddies below. Back for race 1 soon.
Suggested Ellerslie quaddie:
$10 for 25%
|Leg 1:||1. Contessa Vanessa
3. Gris Dame
7. Gold Spice
|Leg 2:||1. Julius
3. Sacred Star
6. Heroic Valour
7. Sultan Of Swing
|Leg 3:||4. Mission Hill
|Leg 4:||1. Felaar|
Suggested Flemington quaddie $30 for 5%
|Leg 1:||1. Tshahitsi
4. Poetic Dream
|Leg 2:||1. Mighty Boss
2. Cliff’s Edge
7. Main Stage
13. Peaceful State
16. Bring Me Roses
|Leg 3:||1. Fell Swoop
2. Secret Agenda
3. Crystal Dreamer
8. Husson Eagle
|Leg 4:||2. Cao Cao
12. Over And Above
Heads Up here with a preview of the Derby and a chance to win a $20 multi bet, plus much more. Apologies – there is a problem with the YouTube upload so no Heads Up this week.
For the Good Confidence bets, I recommend this in the Friday preview on Friday morning,
‘No Good Confidence bets today, but as I feel the prices on Danzdanzdance and Mission Hill are very likely to come in, especially with 2.6mm of rain to come today which will suit both and not some others, I’ll suggest getting on now. So from the Bank of 50 units we’ll have 20 units on Danzdanzdance at $3.80 FF and 10 units on Mission Hill at $6 FF now.’
Excelleration looks well placed to win the 3yo fillies race at Wingatui at $2.10 FF
We started the Good Confidence bets with 20 units on Danzdanzdance at $3.80 FF and 10 units on Mission Hill at $6 FF on Friday morning, so 30 units spent so far. We have 20 units left to bet on the other three Good Confidence bets.
Bet of the Day Wingatui Race 7 1.Excelleration $2.10 FF Updated 3.49 p.m.
Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 9 18.Danzdanzdance $3.50 FF
Speed Map Special Ellerslie Race 6 5.Astor $1.90 FF Updated 3.28 p.m.
Sneaky of the Day Ellerslie Race 2 7.Soroc $9.50 FF 1st $8
Other Good Confidence bets: Ellerslie Race 10 1.Felaar $2.40 FF Updated 5.55 p.m.
Ellerslie Derby Day
I’ll be doing a Birdcage Bully live from the track before each race. That’s where I post which runner or runners look ready to win or lose etc.
7.Endean Express ran a close third in a stronger field last Saturday. She won second up last campaign off a 5 day back up. She has drawn to get all favours and get every chance. She has won on a Slow 7 track. RP $4.50
5.Chicane drawn well and has won here over 1200m.
2.Indecision with a good beginning, can be in this.
6.Rikki Tikki Tavi has been freshened up and is ready to fire up.
7.Soroc last week did well when being on the pace and holding on well for third. He looked fit but would improve with that run being his first run for 29 days. He almost won here in December when just beaten by Howboutdat over 1400m. He has drawn the inside, and last week he pinged the gates well and led then tucked in, so from the inside, he should land on the pace and get an ideal run. Any rain will only enhance his chances. RP $4.50, $9.50 FF
6.Ruby Love game second last start. Fitter and drawn to get all favours.
8.Pierrocity nice horse who will be ready to fire fresh here.
Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race
2.Ladies First closed off nicely for second here last start. She just keeps on improving and the worse the track, the better her chances. RP $4.50, $3.00 FF
3.Our Kings Sway ran on really well last week to almost win. He needs a Dead 5 or worse track to back with confidence.
9.Comin’through battled well in the slower ground here last start. Should be right in this.
1.Magic Chai goes well here and can be in it with the right run.
5.Tiptronic is a good horse as he showed when wide all the way in the Rich Hill Mile and kept finding for a 2L sixth. In his recent trial, he trailed and kept up a strong gallop without being pushed going just as well as Devise who finished wider and behind him. He maps to get a nice run in behind the leaders and Chris Johnson will give him every chance. RP $4, $3.50 FF
8.Ruby Armani looked to have a bit to offer last week but had no room. Won an R85 race here with the same weight in January.
7.Yearn closed off nicely last week and drawn to get a winning run.
9.Lovers Lane has the ability to be right in this if ready.
3.Sacred Day looked very good in his trial and debut win. Ran well over 2000m at Gisborne. Back to 1600m and should be hard to beat. I’d have liked to have seen the blinkers going on coming back in distance, but Tony Pike knows what he is doing, so can still win. RP $3.50, $2.90 FF
5.Mongolian Marshall is a good horse and won with a bit in hand last start.
14.Konstantina won very well last start and being on the pace could be a winning advantage over the above two.
5.Astor last start here sat outside the leader on an even pace and kicked away strongly increasing her stride rate well and soon put it beyond doubt. The extra 100m will hold no fears with the way she won that and she is a strong filly. Drawn to get all favours and looks very well placed on 54kgs at set weights being the equal highest rated runner and she rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $1.90, $1.90 FF
1.Felton Road in his trial was keen behind the slow tempo but closed off nicely.
6.Ladynadel looked in need of the run last week and with a good run, should be in this. One for the Birdcage Bully.
1.Contessa Vanessa last week was in need of the run but still won. That’s because she is the ideal race horse. She just puts herself in the race, relaxes then gives her best. She won here over 1600m and fought hard for second over 2100m here on a Dead 6 track in the slower ground. Should jump and be in the first four again and be the one to beat. RP $4.00
4.Marcellina ran a strong closing 3rd here just behind Contessa Vanessa in the G2 Royal Stakes and wasn’t suited when up on the pace and on a slow track. May be better ridden quieter and come at them.
3.Gris Dame ran a good fifth here behind the two above and is fitter after that last run over 1600m.
7.Gold Spice won very well on a wet track over 1600m charging home late. 2100m looks ideal now and the inside draw is a plus.
Solid pace with Billie in and five others looking to be on the pace.
Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky race
3.Sacred Star hasn’t struck the right conditions or the right run in both starts this campaign. If the track is a Dead 4 or better, he maps to settle off the pace and with the right run, could easily blow these away. A wait and see bet with the weather determining his chances. RP $6, $13 FF
7.Sultan Of Swing was late getting clear here last start and flew home for fifth running the fastest last 600 and 200m. Freshened up and goes well that way and always goes well here. Drawn better this time and with a good pace likely, gets his chance
6.Heroic Valour strong run in the Telegraph and nice trial recently.
1.Julius in top form – will need to work harder this time from the draw and gives a little weight this time.
Last year in this race, Gingernuts won this race strongly and he ran the fastest last 200m in the Avondale Guineas and was strong through the line. Danzdanzdance has done the same thing and was just as impressive on and through the line. She also got knocked around on the turn, had to change ground 200m out and came from behind most and ran past them. She relaxes well and won’t mind a Dead track, plus she has drawn ideally to land close enough without doing a lot of work. Matt Cameron hasn’t won the Derby before but ran second on Volkstok’nbarrell and third on Jon Snow in the last three years, and I really do feel all the stars have aligned for him this year with the right horse, right draw and right track condition. The wetter the track the better her chances as she has an ideal wet track action. A Good track is no concern as she ran home in the second fastest last 600m in the KM 1600m here behind Scott Base. RP $2.80, $4.20 FF
4.Mission Hill was winding up nicely in the Avondale Guineas but ran out of room late. By Teofilo and is bred to stay 2400m very strongly. Peaking nicely for this.
10.Time Lord ran on strongly for third in the Waikato Guineas and is out of a Zabeel mare and the blinkers go on which will help as he was being scrubbed up well out at Te Rapa. He definitely looks like he will see out 2400m better than most and has drawn to do nothing- the upsetter.
3.On The Rocks won the Avondale Guineas well and from a good draw, he will get a good run and on a better track, can place.
1.Felaar is going to win more races based on how he won here three starts back and his two good runs with things going against him in his next two races. Drawn down on the inside so he is going to have to do no extra work to the 800 metres. Then Danielle just has to start picking the gaps to get him out and balanced near the turn and he should put these away. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF
13.El Jodi ran a strong second at New Plymouth and didn’t seem happy on the sandy Te Rapa track.
7.Splendido wilted late here last start and will be improved.
9.Sovereign Prince good second last start and has ability.
1.Excelleration beat Global Thinking decisively here last start. She has had 4 weeks off but from all reports is ready to fire again. Dropping back to 1400m with a freshener looks ideal. She will get back but with a close to even tempo likely, she can track her way into this and with her turn of foot in decent surfaces, she should beat these again. RP $1.80, $2.10 FF