Home » Results » Wednesday Avondale preview below

Wednesday Avondale preview below

Update: In the last four sprint races if you haven’t been on the pace you had little chance. The earlier ones were tempo related but the last race they ran along at an even tempo and still noting could make any significant ground. The Ice Knight maps to settle about 6th which makes it hard, and if they push the button early there are 5 other runners that will be doing the same, so he may be found wanting late, so at $2.50 FF now, I’m happy to just watch. He looks terrific so if you were on early, don’t give up hope! The race panned out as mapped and he just held on so if you were on you will be happy and if you weren’t you won’t be!

Update: No further bets- back for The Ice Knight at 3.40 p.m.

Avondale

There are showers with some being heavy along with thunderstorms forecast today, but it may miss the track though. So wait and see if you want to back a horse that need a decent surface.

There are some even races today but a couple look well placed to win. I may have a bet for Australia later on so there will be an update by 1 p.m. and 4 p.m.

The sectionals off the front from Ellerslie can be seen here

 

One Good Confidence bet today with The Ice Knight in Race 6 which will be updated at 3.40 p.m. starting with a 50 unit bank for the week.

Bet of the day Race 6 1.The Ice Knight $3.30 FF 1st $2.30 

Value bet of the Day Race 7 7.Avec Moi $3.80 Ff  1st $3.30 

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race with a few ready to win.

1.Gabriel 1st $6  worked wide for the first 900m of the race before settling 2nd outer and tried hard right to the line. Any rain no concern with him and he is very fit.

Dangers:

7.Top Actress  kept finding the line strongly last start over 1600m hitting the line the best of anything. That indicates she is ready for 2000m now.

5.Seven Falls looks like more ground will suit now and drawn to get all favours.

4.King Of The Dance peaking now and drawn ideally.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 and depends on what the weather does.

5.Saignon  ran a career best Formpro Rating last start of102 and she needs to rate 100 to win this. Her win before that indicated 1400m would be ideal for her and any rain will be ok. RP $3.50

Dangers:

6.Serenity  was held up at a vital stage last start. Fitter and nicely placed at the weights.

1.Toorak Tower needs a decent footing to be confident with him. He is a good horse and will be ready fresh up after a good trial run for second here closing strongly. Giving 4.5kgs to a fit in form Saignon though.

4.Sellwood if the rain came down, will have an advantage over most.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Cameo  has hit the line strongly in both of her last two starts. She is ready to win- the negative is she will likely get back off a moderate tempo but of the rain comes it may suit her swooping on them. RP $4.20, $3.80 Ff

Dangers:

7.O’Sam 1st $3.40  finished strongly here last start and drawn to get all favours.

8.Honfleur ran on well on debut and will be fitter for that run.

5.Cologne strong finish last start and fitter now.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

13.Snitz Of Time looked good dashing home for third in her last trial with Jake Bayliss on, who is on today. In her previous trial she settled a distant 4th and ran home strongly with a good wet track action to Jasd who won his first two raced then went to Hong Kong. Drawn to settle around midfield and will have been set for this Bonus race from the Stephen Marsh stable. RP $3.70, $4 FF

Dangers:

5.Tokyo Lil  1st $5 should be improved by that fresh run and any rain ok.

3.Bits and Pieces solid second here last start and with a freshener should be in this.

11.Out Of The Park battled ok on debut over 1400m. Back to 1200m from a good draw from the Pike stable means she is in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 with The Concord  being a $2.35 favourite but he can race keenly, so no anchor.

4.The Concord  looked to have the ability to at least win a maiden race after his two strong seconds last campaign. Drawn to get every chance. The Norton bit goes on which may help him not race keenly. Watch his prelim- if he goes down keenly then he can get beaten especially without a trial.

Dangers:

11.Bellinsky 1st $3.50 drops back to 1200m after going good races over 1400m.

9.Reliable Man led in his last trial and wasn’t pushed to run second. Set to fire on debut.

2.The Chaser ran a good recent trial trailing, blocked turn, and drove well inner to almost win.

5.Revered  ran a good fifth in a very strong form race last start behind Embellish.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.The Ice Knight 1st $2.30 bolted in here last start in maiden company and steps to R65 here. His time compared well with the R65 race in similar ground later in the day. With good early speed likely, he can settle in behind that and with the acceleration he showed in that last race here, he can pounce on these and win again from the Nigel Tiley stable. A wet track will only help his chances. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Smiling More  will be suited by the good tempo and beat home Sultan Of Swing in his December trial.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.Avec Moi  1st $3.30   last start was only outfinished late last start behind better horses than she faces here. The winner The Mayor ran a top race for 4th in the Derby and he third horse Hot Saki won next up. The second  horse, Flying  Feet is going to win more races too. Last June at Te Rapa over 1400m on a Slow track she was just beaten by the good Huayra and 8 of the nest 9 horses have all won since. She is fourth up and maps to get a good run in the first three with not a lot of pressure, so looks well placed against these. The negative is she best form is up to 1400m, but with a moderately run 1600m she should be fine. RP $3.40, $3.80 Ff

Dangers:

5.Lord Snow had to work a bit early here last start and was found wanting in the last 200m. With a soft time on the pace could prove the one Avec Moi has to run down.

1.Divine Duke good run fresh up. Best over a middle distance though.

3.Link Road  with a soft lead could pinch it. Strong 4th in a stronger R65 field over 2000m two starts back.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

4.Hanger  has the ability to win a maiden. Just needs a decent surface. Drawn out and with a good run can win if the track is ok. RP $4

Dangers:

5.Justamaiz top second two back and got worked up before the start at Te rapa and had nothing left in the straight when well backed.

7.Northcote ran on well here last start- 1400m suits.

10.Glendowie  will also appreciate the 1400m.

6.Draiochta battled on ok here last startand the 1400m will suit with the blinkers going on.

14.Figeameout  ran a good trial and is ready to go on debut.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!