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Harness handicapping hole revealed

Good morning,

I’ve gone through the Riccarton fields and can’t find any value there so pass. I’ll post an early preview of Saturday by 5 p.m. today, and maybe a bet for Australia later tonight.

If you haven’t changed your password for the new site, or found it too tricky, email me at formpro@formpro.co.nz or txt or call on 027 352 6402 and I can do it for you.

I’ve been looking at harness fields and how they handicap them,  and I’ve revealed  a major flaw in the way they handicap horses. Horses that run second to fifth can’t go up or down in the handicap in any race. So the pacers that finished second to fifth behind the Group 1 Northern Oaks winner, Elle Mac last Friday, didn’t get their rating increased. Elle Mac, went from 91 to 95. Yet in the Group 1 NZ Derby at Ellerslie, the winner, Vin De Dance went from 75, +15 to 90, 2nd horse, Mongolianconqueror went from 73 +15 to 88, third horse, Danzdanzdance went from 76+5 to 81, fourth horse The Mayor from 67+13 to 90 and fifth horse Endowment, 73 + 5 to 78.

Harness horses can only go down if they finish 6th or worse and up only if they win. So horses that run well finishing 2nd to 5th, just behind the winner in Group or Listed races is obvious strong form, and once they get back into a race where their false low rating allows them to get back into a weaker race, and the value is there, you can jump on. If I owned a lower grade pacer and a group placed runner beat me, I’d be a bit peeved. Also, horses that run 6th or worse  in strong rating races are going to drop down, 1,2 or 3 points until they can sneak into a lower rating band race, and bang, they are going to be well placed to win. Owners are a dying breed so this isn’t going to help them die any slower. A typical example is Delight In Me who runs in the R45 to R59 last race at the Park tomorrow night. Before the Oaks she was rated 55 and beat horses rated much higher than that, yet she has to stay on the same rating! So the other 9 owners in that race are going to think how the hell does that happen?  So I’ll be on the search for these types of runners for us. I’ve found one earlier in the night at excellent value here

You can login with username Formpro and the current and the new password can be heard by calling 0900 36 76 7  ( 0900 FORMPRO )  for a cost of $10 which will last till next Thursday night.

Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!