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Saturday March 10 preview

 

Update:

Gailo Chop is ready to win again. The money has been strong for him and the track is playing right for him. He’s nice and relaxed and has that will to win. 18 units a win at $2.80 FF.   Had his chance 2nd. Balance 30.4 units

The way the track is playing it will suit Kementari so  16 units at $$2.40 ff Ridden well and a class above them 38.4 units returned for a 48.4 balance. Bit stiff in the Ellerslie quaddie with Light Shadow getting done on the line paying $9k! Back for Gailo Chop

Magic Chai has the firm track he needs to get the advantage over these 6 units at $5.50ff missed balance 26 units

Rusty looks very fit. 6 units at $3.60 ff Had her chance Balance 32 units

Melt is nice and relaxed and ready to win. The track is playing ideally for her. 7 units at $3.50 FF yesterday. Disappointing finish. Balance 38 units.

Race 3 Trentham. 5.Awesome Al- In race 2 horses struggled in the ground on the inner to the 300m and she is likely to be 3 back inner so pass. 2nd and struggled to make ground after she got clear in time. Looks like an on-pace day there especially if they don’t go hard

 

Next update 1.28 pm.

Back for Race 3 at Trentham at 1.28 p.m.

Suggested Ellerslie quaddie for $12.80 for 5% Just missed after Light Shadow got nailed on the line and it was paying $9k

Leg 1: 1. Arraignment
3. Ruud Not Too
6. Livin’ On A Prayer
12. Kachhi
Leg 2: 2. Authentic Paddy
3. Saint Emilion
8. Lizzie L’Amour
11. Savvy Dreams
Leg 3: 3. Five To Midnight
6. Magic Chai
11. Show The World
16. Ladies First
Leg 4: 3. Light Shadow
4. Gundown
5. The Mitigator
8. Koko Belle

Adam won the $20 multi bet on Heads Up and has Kementari and Galo Chop to return $153

 

Saturday preview

The Heads Up Podcast can be seen here with a preview of two races from Ellerslie, plus the Money Shot’s best sports bet for the weekend, ( Hurricanes to win head to head at $1.87 tonight at 7.30 p.m. )  plus your chance to win a $20 multi bet tomorrow. Adam won and I’ll post his bet by noon along with the update.

The Ellerslie track is Dead 4 and with fine weather forecast is likely to get back to a Good 3. Trentham is  a Dead 5 and should get an upgrade with just showers today and fine weather tomorrow. I’ve previewed most races in NZ and a couple in Australia. I’ll complete the preview by 8 p.m. tonight and heads Up should be up by 5 p.m.

The TAB Bookies are offering Melt at $3.50 Ff up until 5 p.m. today, Friday – click here to go to that option . That is worth taking, especially as there is no rain forecast tomorrow, and it should get back to a Good 3 surface by her race. For the Good Confidence bets, we will have 7 units on her at $3.50 FF along with the 5 units we have on American Empress 2nd at the trots tonight at $7 FF. The starting Bank for each week is 50 units. Balance 38 units including a bet of 7 units on Melt at $3.50 FF

 

 

Bet of the day Flemington Race 8 4.Galo Chop $3 FF Updated 6.25 p.m.  2nd 

Value bet of the Day Trentham Race 8 9.Rusty In Melbourne $4.80 FF Updated 4.32 p.m.

Speed map Special Randwick Race 7 3.Kementari $2.70 FF Updated 6.18 p.m. 1st $2.40

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 9 6.Magic Chai $8 Ff Updated 5.26 p.m.

Other Good confidence bets:

Trentham Race 3 5.Awsome Al $2.70 FF Updated 1.28 p.m.

Ellerslie Race 6 6.Melt $3.50 FF until 5 p.m. Friday Updated 3.33 p.m.

 

Flemington

Race 8

Confidence: 4/5

4.Gailo Chop was a dominant winner in 1.48.26 which was the fastest speed rating all day over any distance, and he was easing down on the line. He maps to either lead or sit second outer, depending on how the track is playing, and he just ticks along in good sectionals, and puts the pressure on near the turn , and should prove too fit and fast third up now. RP $1.90, $3 FF

Randwick

Race 7 

Confidence: 4/5

3.Kementari has been set for this third up and could not have been more impressive getting here in his two wins. Both in impressive times and sectionals, and he wants to race and win. Drawn to get all favours. Some are doubting he will see 1600m out but it is not going to be a strongly run race, he maps to settle just in behind the speed which suits ideally as he chases very well, or may even lead if nothing else wants it, and he just has a very good turn of foot that he can use to put a winning break on these over the rise and be too good to the line. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Ellerslie

 

The track is currently a Good 2 as at Thursday afternoon. With fine weather forecast for Friday and Saturday, it is likely to be a Good track.

There will be an update by 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. Friday along with the Heads Up podcast.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

4.Swissilicious   ran on well for second two starts back in a fast closing sectional. 1400m last start she was found wanting. Best suited fresh over 1200m and drawn to get every chance. RP $4, $5.50

Dangers:

2.Carson River  is  nice horse and from the inside draw, has to be a chance.

1.Breezon  was held up here last start when going well. Wide draw makes it hard though.

7.Pownce  should get a good run and with Samantha Collett, will get her chance.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.Fullinbloom won impressively here last year and showed ability after that as well. Won her trial well leading all the way and could do the same here. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Bevan Street is a nice horse and with a good run, can beat the favourite.

1.O’Guy  won well fresh up and drawn to get all favours.

5.Silver Cloud  with a good ride from the wide draw, will be finding the line hard.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race

4.Kings Cross ran a strong second here in the Dunstan Feeds final over 1500m and ran home well at Trentham in a strong field. Freshened up and goes well here. RP $4.50, $5.20 FF

Dangers:

15.Thatsforsure strong finish last start and will be improved with that. 1400m suits better too.

12.Sound Works drawn wide but with a good ride is racing well enough to be in this.

1.Smart Dragon won his trial well and with luck from the wide draw, could upset.

Race 4

The speed map shows it could favour runners in the first half with not a lot of leaders or on pace runners

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race.

6.Lovelight has been well placed in her last two starts winning well for us. She stays in the same grade for this but is still on a winning weight of 56.5kgs. The plus is she has early speed and in a race where there doesn’t look a lot of tempo, she can slide forward and 2+3 can get her handy without burning too much petrol, she is the one to beat. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Scrutinize is bred to be very good, especially being out of top Oaks winning mare Legs. he did look very good in his earlier part of his career then got injured. He has slowly raced his way back into form, when he has had his riders on board. He really hit the line strongly last start over 1600m where they went slowly up front. he ran his last 600m in 34.03 which was excellent in the context of the day. He drops back to R75 class and the extra ground is what he needs now. The negative is he may get back off a slowly run race but hopefully Opie Bosson will countercat that from a good draw and maybe try and settle him midfield. From there, he can win alright. RP $4.50, $6 FF

4.Jake The Muss  was held up till way too late and flashed for fourth at Matamata. Another good horse unsuited by getting back.

9.Richie McHorse  has drawn to get a good run and a better track suits.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Ja Ja Binks just hasn’t had things go her way this campaign. She has got back in slowly run races and run home well or struck wet tracks. She won this race last year when Dancing Flame set a fast tempo and she came from 8th in the 9 horse field, to win in 1.09.49, and second was Julius. So she can relax and get going 600m out and get over these on the decent surface. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Rosa Carolina is a very nice galloper who won well fresh up and a good tempo will suit.

5.Howboutdat drawn to get all favours and is in great form.

11.Princess Keruru closed well late after being blocked last week.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

6.Melt won in very good time here in January and with that experience under her belt and natural improvement, plus being in the Nigel Tiley stable, she does look well placed to settle just off the pace and be too good again. Her action suggests she needs a decent surface which she should get RP $2.00 on a Dead 4 or better track. $2.90 FF

Dangers:

1.Sword Of Osman  won in good time last start and from the inside, is the one to run down. He is likely to lead and a Dead to slow track would give him an advantage over Melt but that track surface may not happen. Negative is he may be better left handed.

5.Avantage won the KM very well but the draw makes it harder for her to get handy without burning too much and be vulnerable late.

7.Spanish Whisper  is tough and with a good run likely will be right in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Arraignment ran a strong second last start here behind Saint Emilion  and drops back to R85 class. Drawn well and if he can hunt through to lead and not get taken on, he is certainly good enough to beat these even with 59kgs. RP $5, $10 FF

Dangers:

12.Kachhi is a good mare and is an improver from Matamata.

6.Livin’On a Prayer  returns to her favourite track. Needs a good ride though.

3.Ruud Not Too has won in 1.34.01 here over 1600m and is close to that for4m again.

Race 8

Speed map below: Moderate to even tempo likely depending on what wide runners do.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Savvy Dreams  had no chance of winning at Hastings with the moderate tempo of the race. The step to 2000m is ideal – she was just beaten by Bonneval in the Lowland and ran a strong 3rd in the oaks behind Bonneval and Devise. If they go at an even tempo or quicker, which is possible, she could do it with Samantha Collett up. RP $6, $11 FF

Dangers:

8.Lizzi L’Amour was a decisive winner at Te Rapa and she won this race last year on a Dead 5 track. Drawn 1 and maps to get a winning run. A Good track brings others closer to her though. Her last 7 starts on a Good track have resulted in 1 win and her last 7 starts on a Dead or worse tracks have resulted in 5 wins. RP $2.70, Currently $1.90 FF which is too short on a Good track

3.Saint Emilion  won very strongly here last start and if left alone in front, will prove hard to run down.

2.Authentic Paddy won the Zabeel here on Boxing day. Tough run last start.

Race 9

Speed map below:

 

Confidence: 3/5 Upgraded from 2/5 after the track got back to a Good 3

6.Magic Chai ran home in 32.82 and 11.08 last week off the slow pace. He was also hit on the eye by another rider’s whip that needed treatment. He’s a tough bugger who won the Wellington Cup for us on 53kgs and now the track is back to a Good 3 he really comes into it. RP $4.00, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

16.Ladies First won well in a sprint home last week with 58kgs, 5kgs over the minimum on a Good track. It should be Dead or worse which will only help and she drops to 54kgs and 1kg over the minimum with the SW and penalties. She would have been carrying 56.5kgs if this were a handicap. So in effect we are getting Jonathan Parkes on with  2.5kgs allowance. She looks like she will stay a solid 3200m.

3.Five To Midnight gets in on 56kgs and would have been on 60kgs in a handicap. He is racing like he will relish 3200m now. Drawn the inside and if the track is ok down there, is right in this.

11.Show The World  won really well at Matamata and rider Lynsey Satherley said he has really been improving in the last few weeks. As we saw last week, Vin de Dance from the same stable, improved nicely to win the Derby.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

4.Gundown won well at Pukekohe on a heavy track. Then next up mapped to settle midield and did and couldn’t get a clear go at them and finished with a gear or two left. Co-trainer Andrew Forsman was very confident he would be the hardest to beat out of his stable. Back on a Good track where he should get a good run about midfield with an even tempo likely, and get his chance to win.RP $3.50, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

3.Light Shadow  ran a big 2nd here three starts back and did well last start. Just needs a half decent run to be in this.

5.The Mitigator  had shown good ability earlier and finally broke through last start. Could go on with it now.

8.Koko Belle  was stiff last start and drawn to get a good run.

Trentham

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

6.Bare With  got back in a strongly run race and was held up in the straight and hit the line with something in hand. It was a good time and she looks well placed here. RP $3.20, $3.30 FF

Dangers: 

7.Onawing found Excalibur and company too tough last start. This easier and fitter.

1.Time Bearer  will appreciate the extra ground.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

8.Princess Amelie ran into what could be a very good horse on debut. Drawn well and 1000m will suit.

Dangers:

7.Byzantine  looked good in his trial second. Nicely bred.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

5.Awesome Al  bolted in last start and should have won the start before here over 1000m. She maps to settle 3 back on the rail or trail, depending on how she begins, and with an even tempo likely with Culzean setting an even tempo, Racha’s job is to start working her clear over the crossing and she just needs a clear crack at then before she gets to the 200m mark and she should beat these. RP $2.40, $3.30 FF ( Malo Blik is likely to be scratched with a 16% deduction.)

Dangers:

4.Vincent  good run last start in the open. Much better with cover.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Eye’s Wide Open game third in harder field last start. 2kgs off helps too. RP 43.60

Dangers: 

2.Wilijonmcbride  gets into the right race to get a well deserved win.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.All In Vogue looks like an uncontested leader and in the form she is in, will be hard to run down. RP $3.40, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

5.Our Abbadean looked good when she won over 2200m at Te Rapa beating nice horses. Fitter now and can sprint fast.

Race 6

Good speed here with five runners going forward early.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Bring To The Block will get back but with the freshener and the 3kgs off, she should get her chance to get over these late with her turn of foot. RP $3.60, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

2.Awatane drawn to get a good run and won well here three starts back.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Heaven’s Keep had to do too much work midrace and wilted in the last 100 metres. Back to 1600m where he maps to get a softish lead, he will prove much harder to beat. RP $4.00, $4.20FF

Dangers:

8.Handfull ran a top race last start sitting 3 wide in the open and still found the line well. Very fit which could be the advantage he needs.

4.Sergeant Blast won well last start due to the decent tempo up front. Won the Douro Cup here and if the inside is off, and the tempo is on, he can win.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

9.Rusty In Melbourne did very well last start when she got back to last in a moderately run race and charged home in 33.54 for second. This time there looks to be a better tempo, so with a fair crack at them 300m out, she can definitely win. RP $3.70, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

 7.Flamingo  good third here in R75 company. hasn’t raced for 49 days though.

8.Tipping Point  good finish last start behind Rusty and bigger track suits.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!