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Wednesday Matamata preview below

 

Matamata

Good morning,

A fine day has dawned at Matamata and the track has come back to a Dead 6 and could get an upgrade. No Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or more. I am keen on a filly in the Oaks but want to see how she fairs in the draw before posting it which I will do at 4 p.m. today.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 3 1.Devil May care $1.80 Ff 1st $1.50 

Value bets of the day Race 6 4.Stand Firm $3.80 FF, 1st $4.40

Race 5 4.On Parole $7.50 Ff

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Abrahams  ran a game second on debut but looked around a bit. So the Blinkers went on and from the wide draw just missed the jump a little and had to snag back then got checked 1000m out. He was forced to go the widest 500m out and ran home ok with the blinkers helping him concentrate and nice long strides as though 1400m would suit now. Drawn the rail with Opie up so third up looks set to peak and be hard to beat.RP $3.20

Dangers:

12.Concert Hall 1st $4.50 sat 2nd outer in her trial and was ridden up on the turn and responded well.Drawn to get all favours but hard to see her beating Abrahams on that.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Lady Lira 3rd $1.50 tri $24  was confidently backed in the Breeders stakes here on debut. She disputed a hot first 200 metres then eased out of it and settled 4th outer and was urged along on the turn, but battled on well. The rider said she would definitely improve with that experience. Her adjusted time was half a length behind Handsome Rebel’s but she has drawn better than him and should have more improvement in her. RP $3.60

Dangers:

1.Handsome Rebel 1st $1.70   is likely to get back from the wide draw. If they go forward, he may get caught wide and set it up for Lady Lira.

3.More Wonder 2nd $2.30  drawn to get all favours and if the above two get in trouble, he could do it.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Devil May Care 1st $1.50 beat some nice subsequent winners (9)  last campaign in three starts. He has been given time to grow and in his recent trial, settled 4th outer, cruised up 150m out and was never pushed to bolt in. Looks stronger and being a long strider that relaxes well, is going to be suited by the early speed inside so he can settle about 5th outer, and from there, with the even speed, looks very hard to keep out. RP $2.40

Dangers:

6.Meditteranean Star  looks a nice horse and drawn well.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

5.Emerald Amour  just beaten fresh up and looked a definite improver. Drawn well. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Veine D’Or was just beaten fresh up and drawn well.

1.Master Painton  is certainly capable of winning a maiden. Drawn out though so needs a good ride from Opie.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.On Parole ran home in the fastest last 600m of the race from the back here last start in a stronger R75 field. Gets 2kgs off and with an even tempo, will be hard to keep out. RP $5

Dangers:

9.Lady Shabeel has the blinkers going on and if saved for one last go at them, could do it.

10.Don Blanco good second last start and racing like 2000m suits.

6.Elegant D’Oro held on well last start surprising she is starting over 2000m after a 45 day break so could be ready.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Stand Firm  1st $4.40  won very well here fresh up with a nice action in a similar time to the R65 race then battled ok right handed at Pukekohe. But didn’t look as comfortable right handed. The blinkers go on and from the inside draw and up to 1400mnow looks ideal. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Flourishing  looked good winning last start beating 3 subsequent winners. May not get the lead from the wide draw with three runners in side mapped to go out early. Hasn’t raced for 49 days too so may be vulnerable on fitness.

9.Falkirk Lass  freshened up with blinkers on- fights well.

6.Scarlett Princess  good run last start but hard to see beating the above two.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.Pink Graffiti  2nd $1.10 two strong seconds. The blinkers come off and drawn well. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Podravina 1st $4.50 solid third last week and is an improver from the Baker/Forsman stable.

10.Raspberry Beret  1st $2.60 Ff has the ability to win if in the mood.

2.Midsummer magic  two strong seconds and

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!