Home » Results » Saturday March 17 Saturday preview below

Saturday March 17 Saturday preview below

Update:

We will sit on the 7 units balance and watch a terrific race

5 units ew on tote on Dama Zorro balance 7 units with 3 units ew on Belle Du Nord to come from Thursday bet

15 units Felaar 15 units and 5 units Commanding Prince $6.50

I cant update before race 2 at Rotorua so we will get on early. 7 units at $2.80 FF

Good morning,

Trentham has come up a Good 3 which is going to suit our three main bets there ideally. The forecast is for a good day as well. There are four Good Confidence bets which I will update just before the race.

Trentham (Posted Thursday morning)

Below is an  early preview of the Oaks. I’ll post another update by 5 p.m. Thursday.

The weather is looking good apart for a few showers Thursday and Friday so the current Dead 5 track should get back to a Dead 4 or maybe better.

Rotorua has a Dead 6 track and decent forecast as well.

For the 50 unit Betting Bank for the week, we’ll get in early on Belle du Nord as $15 is just too much to resist. so 3 units eachway at $15 and $4.50 FF now.

Posted Saturday morning – I figured out why Heads Up wasn’t playing but too late for the $20 multi comp question, so I’ll make it $40 next week.

 

The Money Shot’s Sports tip is for the Highlanders to win head to head.

Good confidence bets: WE start each week with 50 units. I recommended getting on Belle Du Nord at $15 and $4.50 with 3 units each way on Thursday and she is into $10s now.

Bet of the Day Trentham race 4 2.Felaar $2.20 FF Updated 2.26 p.m. 2nd $1.20

Value bet of the Day Trentham Race 6 9.Dame Zorro $8.50 FF

Sneaky of the day Trentham Race 8 4.Belle du Nord $15 on Thursday- now $10 with deductions and some good bets. Updated 4.56 p.m. Des Coppins picked Belle du Nord as his value bet of the day on Trackside radio so I’ll make Trentham Race 6 9.Dama Zorro $8.50 FF

Speed Map Special Rotorua Race 2 3.Caesour’s Dream $2.80 Ff  Updated 12.56 p.m.

Other nice eachway bets:

Trentham Race 7 8.Volks Lightning $8 Ff

Rotorua Race 5 1.Soroc $5.50 FF

The Money Shot’s Sports tip is for the Highlanders to win tonight head to head. $1.87 Yes

My Warriors Sports tip is Warriors -10.5 $1.87 ( It was -8.5 on Friday) The Titans have lost a key player in halfback Ash Taylor. Yes

No Australian selections today

Trentham 5 winners on top

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Euphoria  1st $3.10  last start just went down in a fast time at Hastings over 1300m. The 1400m is ideal for her now and she looks well placed to get a winning run and be hard to beat. Chris Johnson jumps on with the lighter weight. Trainer Rachel Frost told us, ” She has come on really well since Hastings. She should get a good run in behind the leaders and as long as she settles ok, she should be hard to beat. I’d prefer a Dead track for her so any showers tomorrow( Friday) I’d be happy with.” RP $3.80, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

2.Rock My Soul had his chance last start. Will find this a little easier and should get a good run. The 1400m may be what he is after now too.

3.Prince Mambo  has been costing himself with slow starts but closing off well although he was blocked last start. If he can begin better and either lead or sit outside The Bandito, he will be harder to beat.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Hinerangi 1st $2.30  has looked good in bother wins. The blinkers go on which will suit. Not a lot of pace here so she can lead or sit 2nd outer and be the one to beat. Andrew Forsman made her his best from the stable on Friday. RP $3.50, $2.70 FF is a bit short up in class.

Dangers:

6.Classic Touch did well last start from the back. He can get handy here and with Johnson up, should get his chance.

2.Master Pat with a freshener is capable of upsetting.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race.

1.Sir Nate 1st $2.50 qu $8.60  is a nice horse and with a clear shot 200m out can win.

Dangers:

6.What A Smasher 2nd $3 won well on debut and drawn ideally.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

2.Felaar 2nd $1.20 tri $257  had to be good to win last start after getting held up and powering through them to win well. With Commanding Prince and Bizzwinkle setting an even pace, it will set up nicely for him. RP $2.00, $2.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Commanding Prince will see out a strong 2500m and is the one Felaar has to run down.

5.Daytona Red  1st $13 back in class here and 2500m will suit.

1.Bizzwinkle 3rd $2.80  if left alone by Commanding prince could pinch it.

Race 5

The speed map shows La Fille En Jeu and China Star should look to share the pace and with wide runners likely tom press forward, a modearte to even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

2.Montoya Star 1st $3.50 beat a strong field last start and drawn ideally. Well off at set weights. If she can settle 3 back inner with a better deginning, she is the one to beat. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Slimline gets in well under the set weights and with a good run can be in this.

3.La Fille En Jeu should get a decent time on the pace and if so, could upset.

15.Wafer showed she could be getting back to her best form last start with a big finish. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed out wide and down on the inner early so an even tempo at least likely and could suit off pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5 Upgraded to 3/5 with the Good 3 track

9.Dama Zorro had to be well above average to win last start at Hastings she came from last off a moderate tempo to win in a 5 length faster time than the R85 race in 33.19, the fastest last 600m and 200m ( 11.03 ) all day. There is a good tempo likely here which is going to suit her ideally. So from a good draw, she can settle midfield and come with the last run at them. RP $4.80, $8.80 FF

Dangers:

13.Pawlownia 2nd $3.10  has looked very good at the trials and on debut. Big step up but is going to win a few races and with a good tempo up front and the right track into it, she will definitely be right in this.

11.Lubaya is a smart filly and will be suited by the decent tempo. She will be fitter now as well.

1.Scott Base- 1st $2.60  if you back him at $2.20 FF you must have too much money. He was trained for the Derby and to drop back to 1400m , even though he has had two weeks to freshen, is just no value. The race tempo will suit him but he is likely to be looking for gaps near the turn and with the above two fillies getting clearer runs likely, he can get beaten.

Race 7

The Speed map shows plenty of speed from all over the place ensuring a solid tempo suiting runners off the pace

Confidence: 2/5

8.Volks Lightning looked very strong and ready at Ellerslie before the race. But she was caught 3 wide in the open on an even tempo and did well to keep fighting for 6th, 2.5L off the winner Julius. She ran a game third in the Railway from a wide draw too. Then in the Telegraph here, she was also caught 5w in the open and did well to finish 3.6L from the winner. This time, if she gets caught wide from the inside draw I’ll Tweet Donal Trump and ask him to fire me. She won here in January last year from the inside draw, so with Chris Johnson knowing her better after two rides on her, and a solid tempo in front of her, she looks a very good eachway chance in this. RP $4.70, $7.50 FF and $2.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Ferrando 1st $4.10 needs a nice firm track to be harder to beat. Game third in the Telegraph on an off track and if rail is good, will be the one Volks Lighting has to run down.

5.Heroic Valour 2nd $2 game second to Julius last start. a solid tempo will suit especially if inside is off.

12.Akoya has won two from two in weaker races here but should get a good run.

 

Race 8 The NZ Oaks

The Speed map shows plenty of early speed out wide and with runners likely to be caught wide into the first bend, an even tempo should be there suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Belle du Nord beat home Savvy Coup here over the 1600m in the Levin Classic over 1600m when coming from behind her to finish second and Savvy Coup third. Then she had no luck 3 wide in the open at the back at Waikato on a slow track. But at Hastings last start, she settled well, and was blocked on the turn when full of running and didn’t really get clear till close to the line and had a few gears up her sleeve. If she had got clear,in my opinion she would have beaten Savvy Coup home. Last year she showed she was capable of some excellent closing sectionals. She is right back to that form and with the extra strength, the 2400m will suit her much better than most. Trainer, Emma-Lee Browne is very happy with her progress since then and she also told us that Vinnie was happy with the way she settled at Hastings. So from the inside draw, she can settle 3 back inner or close to it, and with an even tempo likely, on the likely Dead or better track, she can beat these home. ( She also beat Aloisia iat this meeting last year who went on to win the Group 1 1000 Guineas in Australia. RP $6, Currently $15 and $4.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Contessa Vanessa will go forward and get into a winning position. She showed her fighting qualities at Ellerslie last start and is right in this.

8.Marcellina closed off strongly at Ellerslie last start and is peaking nicely for this. Andrew Forsman has been very keen to get her here in peak order and has done so. The bigger track will suit her he feels and I agree.

2.Savvy Coup 1st $2.60 won the Lowland strongly and that race is always a strong lead into the Oaks. There were a few unlucky runners in that though so she was made to look good. The map shows that she is likely to be about midfield early and wide so Johnson is going to have to decide early whether to go forward or snag back. I’m picking he will allow her to slide forward until he can slot in but she is going to have to do extra work doing it making her vulnerable and no $2.90 FF chance.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

6.Awesome Al 1st $2.60 Tri $1695  ran on as though 1400m would suit now and a better surface as well. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Hartley 3rd $2.20  is a nice horse and 1400m suits better.

7.Castani held up for a last go at them could do it.

2.Choice Attitude 2nd $7 drawn to get all favours.

Rotorua

Race 1

The speed map shows hello Sailor and Nabiac liklely to share a moderate tempo and suit the first four runners in running.

Confidence: 1/5

1.Nabiac 2nd $2.90 qu $6.70   won well over 1600m then last start was handy inner, got out a bit late and kept finding to run a close second. He looks like he will appreciate the 2200m and should get a good run on the pace. RP $4.50, $6.20 FF

Dangers:

3.Gabriel did well to win last start after getting the shuffle up. Drawn to get a cosy trail on a moderate tempo so right in this.

2.Woodloveto 1st $2.60  was doing his best work late last start in a stronger R75 field. Will get back and with a moderate tempo likely, could be in trouble in a sprint from the 500m.

Race 2

Early speed from Pop Star Princess and Caesour’s Dream

Confidence: 3/5

3.Caesour’s Dream ran a career best race last start when a fighting second to the stronger Astor rating a Formpro Rating of 104 in a fast time for the 1300m. She drops back to a slightly easier race and gets in on 54.5kgs with the 2kgs off. Jasmine Fawcett should suit her nicely and she does jump quickly which could be the winning of the race as Pop Star Princess missed the jump in her trial and got back and on debut she took a few strides to get going before hunting through to lead. So based on that much improved run last start, she can get the lead comfortably and with no pressure likely mid race, she only has to rate a Formpro Rating of 101 to win this, so looks very well placed. RP $2.00, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Pop Star princess 1st $3.60 did fight hard against Contessa Vanessa last start

1.Felton Road will be improved by that fresh run behind Caesour’s Dream but does tend to over race behind a moderate tempo.

Race 3

Pas. For quaddies: 2-3 1st $4 -6

 

Race 4

The speed map shows Iwanndancelikehim and Santiago likely to lead out giving Calligraphy a nice sit 3rd outer. A moderate tempo likely suiting the first four runners.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Calligraphy 1st $2.50 Tri $43 First 4 $127  was checked in a stronger field last start and got back and no runners really made ground in the straight so forgive her for that. She has won over 1600m at Ellerslie an showed a will to win at Tauranga three starts back. Gets 2kgs off which puts her on a winning weight. She maps to get 2nd or third outer with Santiago and Iwannadancelikehim likely to dispute that early, and get a good run. All her wins are right handed but she won at Te Rapa then was relegated, and just missed there again later on, so should be ok. RP $3.40, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

5.Santiago  2nd $2.90 qu $6 has won here over 1400m leading all the way and may try and do that again if allowed to slide to the lead, but is likely to be content 2nd outer and looks the main danger.

7.Libretti 4th  has won here over 1560m from a distant 4th inner. If she can begin better and seci=ure the trail, she can place.

1.Iwannadancelikehim 3rd NTD  got a soft lead last start( 12.36 /200m to the 600m and battled ok when headed 300m against better horses than these. Would need to get a soft lead to have a chance of holding on and they are likely to have a crack at him well before the turn on this track.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Soroc won well last start after leading. Up in weight but is a big strong horse and in the same grade, can win again. RP $3.90, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

9.Voler Pour Moi is a nice horse and with the right run is the main danger.

10.Donna and Billy back in distance with a light weight suits.

Race 6

The speed map shows Ocean Emperor can lead this if Shaun McKay wants and Battle Time can get a soft sit second outer. A Moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky race with a moderate tempo likely.

2.Cote D’Or did well to win off a moderate tempo last start. She is a  good mare and 1400m suits but the likely moderate tempo won’t, but if she can get a nice track into it, she just puts her head down and goes, so can still do it.

Dangers:

5.Sultan Of Swing is better left handed but could take the bull by the horns and lead. If he did that, they could steal it.

1.Scapolo is going well and races well here.

6.Battle Time is two stone lighter which could turn his form around. He maps to get a good run on the pace.

Race 7

The Speed map shows plenty of early speed all over at the start and a solid tempo from there, so it suits a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Elusive Treasure ran a very good fifth the at Te Rapa in the Group 1 1400m race on a wet track. Drawn to get a winning run off the pace and come with a winning run. RP $4.50, $5.20

Dangers:

7.Howboutdat  is a strong horse suited a to a solidly run 1230m

5.Bisou Bisou is in the best form of her life and drawn and weighted well.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.Keely Be 2nd $2.20 qu $16  won well last start and is right on top of her game. Has the early speed to get into a good spot. RP $4

Dangers:

11.Unfazed 1st $5.10  was stiff last start after a good win.

1.Decscendant looks a good chance from the good draw.

8.Winmotion if they go hard could upset.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!