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Friday selections posted below

March 16

Te Aroha March 16 Weather fine Track Dead 6 and rail out 6m.

The track has come back to a Dead 6 from Slow 8 Thursday morning, so it may get an upgrade. It is always tricky trying to work out how this track will play making it hard to bet with confidence. You have to watch the first few races before seeing any pattern. We are getting into that time of year where we need to see the penetrometer readings taken from around the track, or get the opinion of the Track Manager or someone who has walked the track. Punters have been asking for this since the Money Shot was in nappies, so I can’t see a simple thing like this happening this year – hopefully I’m proven wrong.

I have good confidence about Divine Elite in Race 2 but with no confidence on this track, no bets with the bank money.

There is an early preview of Saturday here which will be updated by 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. along with the Heads Up podcast.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 2 10.Divine Elite $2.10 FF 1st $1.50

Value bet of the day Race 4 7.Konstantina $5 FF

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

7.King Of The Dance has shown enough to say it can win soon.$2.40 is a bit short though. He needs a Dead or better track surface so getting first use will help. RP $3.30, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

12.Mamba really found the line strongly at Avondale from the rear last start. A slow track will suit and she is very fit now.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

10.Divine Elite looks well placed and ready to strike after two strong placings. Last start he settled well midfield inner, got out but got a bit of a bump when angling out and the winner, hotty Mongolian Marshall, got the advantage by a length, but once balanced up he really let down strongly to close hard on him to be beaten by 0.4 lengths, and he won the Spec Cond race at Ellerslie next up in fast time. There was a gap to the rest and the time was quicker than the R65 race. So third up, and fitter, he looks well placed to win. His action also says he will relish an off track like today’s. RP $2.20, $2.10 FF

Dangers:

14.Katie Perrie has had her chances in her last two seconds. The speed rating in her first second was below average and she had every chance last start and was beaten comfortably by 1.5L. I just feel Divine Elite has the measure over her in strength and ability.

9.Verses  two solid seconds then went average last start. May have had an injury with the 41 day break and likely to need this.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

5.Lucetta  closed hard last start when the leader got all favours in front. Fitter now. RP $4.00

Dangers:

6.Honfleur two good runs and was held up at a vital stage last start. Looked fitter last start so right at her peak now.

7.Secretaria fought well on debut for third and is an improver.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 in a nice field of 3yos.

7.Konstantina game second in stronger $50k Spec Cond race at Ellerslie last start in a good speed rating on a Good track where her action and form suggests a Dead to slow track would suit better. I’ll give it to her on race experience, what she has done so far, her weight advantage and her ability to win on a Dead to slow track. Plus the bonus is she is Baker/Forsman trained and has Matt Cameron who suits her and knows her well now. RP $3.80, $5.00 FF

Dangers:

3.Sherrif  was going well and had to make his own gap 100m out when charging through and won strongly. Looks a good horse and the big tracks suit him.

1.Rock On Wood ran 4th behind our top 3yos at Trentham. Only query is fitness with the 38 day break but won on debut  over 1200m, so certainly good enough to win if fit enough.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

6.Saignon  fought on for second last start over 1400m. Drops back to 1200m with more speed in front of him which suits. Handles any track condition so looks the one. RP $4, $4.20 Ff

Dangers:

5.Cinematic  freshened up and goes well that way. Drawn near the inner though and a Dead 6 is at her limit for track conditions so no anchor.

3.Fortune Patch  fitter after two runs and handles any track condition. Best run last campaign was third up and gets 4kgs off.

7.Nothinglefttolose if the inside is off, could swoop on them.

Race 6

Confidence:

Confidence: 2/5

11.Imblaze  is a nice mare who looked good on wet tracks last campaign. She has the early pace to make use of the inside draw but we don’t know if the inside will be on, off or whatever, so wait and see before backing. RP $5

Dangers:

2.Poker Face  goes well fresh but wouldn’t want it any worse than a Dead 6.

1.Chadsdale has won fresh and has had two trial to get ready.

4.Alvin’s Dream ran a nice trial when in behind and never really got clear and looked to be travelling very well. Won fresh last campaign.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in a race with five realistic chances.

8.Serenity  ran home well last start in a race suiting on pace runners. Blinkers on now third up and has won on a slow track, so ready to strike. RP $4.00

Dangers:

3.Supera hit the line well last start and will be improved by that. Nicely bred and 1600m suits now.

5.Perroquet  looked good winning last start in a faster time than the R65 race. Nicely bred too.

1.Hot Saki  back to 1600m should be ok. Likely to lead or sit 2nd outer and if on pace runners are winning could do it.

2.Tavis Star  was a bit unlucky last start getting shuffled. Has rated well and Opie jumps on.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

1.Prince Jabeel strong second at Ellerslie last start and very well bred. Will be ready to fire fresh. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Executive Power  strong second beaten by a nice horse last start. If inside is off will be advantaged by a wide draw.

16.Artistry is ready to fire on debut from the Pike stable with Opie up.

2.Answer Back  nice finish last start. Drawn the inside and if it is ok down there, could upset them.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!