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Wednesday preview below

 

Update:

6.Hanger looks very ready to win. 5 units at 2.20 ff and 5 units tote 1st w0n easily Paid $2.20 tote + 12 units balance 62 units.

Matamata Good morning,

The rail is out 11 metres, 3m out from Saturday. The track has come up a Dead 5 ( Dead 6 yesterday) and with a fine day forecast, it may even get an upgrade. Winners came from all over the place on Saturday and the rail being out 3 more metres may help on pace runners but this track normally does anyway.

There is one Good Confidence bet today. Last week was a quiet week for the 50Unit Bank bets but we still eked out a 7 unit profit on a tough day.

 

Bet of the Day Race 8 6.Hanger $3.20 FF

Recommended multi with Race 3 5.Santa Catarina $2.40 FF

Value bet of the day Race 2 8.Inigo Montoya $7.60 FF

First quaddie $7.20 for 5%

Leg 1: 3. Soldier Field
5. Georgian Ease
7. Eloquence
9. Mamba
Leg 2: 8. Inigo Montoya
11. Miss Scandinavia
12. Sacred Delight
13. Tenacious
Leg 3: 1. Byzantine
2. Sahar
5. Santa Catarina
Leg 4: 3. Birdie Blitz
4. Veine D’Or
8. Bravissimo

 

Late quaddie suggested bet for $5 for 12%

Leg 1: 5. La Roccetta
7. Zappeur
8. The White Queen
10. Lady Missy
Leg 2: 2. Speechmaker
6. Fawn
7. Our McKay
8. Concert Hall
9. Chou Chou
Leg 3: 3. Aniceta
6. Snitz Of Time
Leg 4: 6. Hanger

 

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

3.Soldier Field 2nd $2.70 showed the ability earlier in his career that he could win at least a maiden. He’s had two runs back now and drawn well. And 2000m should suit from a good draw. Blinkers go on. RP $6, $9.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Georgian Rose ran on fairly over 1600m in a much stronger field than this last start over 1600m in fast time and did it three wide with cover all the way.

9.Mamba  ran on well last start for third after a good fifth before that. Has had her chances though so $2.50 is a bit hort.

7.Eloquence  two solid seconds but a bit one paced, then had a vet problem

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

8.Inigo Montoya  had the tongue tie go on first time last time and ran home well once clear. 1600m suits and drawn well. RP $5

Dangers:

12.Sacred Delight finished well for third here last start and fitter now.

13.Tenacious  good third two starts back and drawn to be in it.

11.Miss Scandinavia ran on well with the pace suiting the winner fresh up.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Santa Catarina 2nd $1.50  looked good coming from off the pace to win both her trials. She is likely to be  few lengths off Byzantine and with him getting a soft lead, she will need the gaps at the right time to get over him, but she does look very good so can beat these. RP $2.20

Dangers:

1.Byzantine 1st $3.50  showed good early speed to lead from the outside barrier and fought hard for second although had enough over the 1000m near the line. Drawn the ace and likely to get a soft lead.

2.Sahar ready to go and well bred.

Race 4

Confidence:1/5

4.Veine D’Or 1st $3.50 qu $9.70  almost won fresh up and battled on well for a close 7th last start here. Fitter now and drawn well.

Dangers:

8.Bravissimo 2nd $2.20   looked to have a bit to offer here last start when blocked.

3.Birdie Blitz  was a distant 3rd fresh up. Drawn to get all favours again.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

7.Zappeur ran two strong thirds last campaign. Looked ready to go after having an easy trial sitting 2nd outer and wasn’t asked to go for third.

Dangers:

10.Lady Missy looked ready to on debut after leading and fighting well for second in her trial.

5.La Roccetta  battling thirds but fitter than most and has a good draw with 2kgs off.

8.The White Queen  looked good in her trial leading and wasn’t pushed to run 2nd- set to fire fresh and well bred.

Other thoughts:

4.Avant has had 15 goes and done well in some race. Nice trial win though but drawn wide so likely to make it 16 runs without a win.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

2.Speechmaker won strongly second up over 1600m beating some two nice horses, Mongolian marshal and Gold Spice, 4th and 5th. Then he just went too hard early in the 2000m Waikato Guineas and had nothing to offer in the straight. Has had time to recover and drawn to get a good run. Dead to slow track ok with his action. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Fawn 1st $5.50 strong third here last start and fitter from a good draw.

8.Concert Hall  won well here on debut and drawn well.

7.Our McKay  won strongly then had a vet problem last start. Nice horse.

9.Chou Chou rated well last start and drawn to improve further.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Aniceta looked good running smart horse Hinerangi to a nose on debut. Then she was held up late in a strong field at Ellerslie. Then last start was caught 3w in the open when confidently expected to win by the trainer. She has been freshened up for this and drawn well. As long as it is now worse than a slow 7 she looks set to win. RP $2.80

Dangers:

6.Snitz Of Time  ran home stylishly for 4th on debut after an impressive 3rd and 2nd at the trials.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5 but depends on how the track is.

6.Hanger 1st $2.20  did well last start coming off a moderate tempo to get up for second. He will be fitter now and the side winkers go on. Drawn well with Leith Innes up and he goes well for him. Remember he ran a strong finishing 4th at Ruakaka from well back to run 4th behind Embellish and Ever Loyal, running the same last 600m as Embellish. That was after running the fastest last 600m behind Summer Passage and Summer Monsoon here on a Good 3 track on debut here in a Listed race. So he has the ability to win at least a maiden and this is not a strong one. RP $2.00, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

13.Cameo was beaten by the tempo last start. Looked very well then and was unlucky two starts back. Likely to be behind Hanger and it will take a good effort to beat him.

7.The Concord  good run two back and drawn well.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!