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Saturday March 31 preview below

Update:

Interesting comments from Lisa Latta that Robbie Hannam on Authentic Paddy won’t be giving Saint Emilion an easy time in front as he is very fit. So Opie may take a sit and then get 2nd outer, which should be ok, and Saint Emilion is looking very well,- 5 units a win on the tote. Very disappointing finish. Closing Balance 52 units for a 2 unit profit for the week- time for a party!!! No more bets for the weekend.

Bank Balance is 62 units

Sydney race 4 1.Daysee Doom has been steady in the market and on pace runners are getting no disadvantage. 5 units a win on tote. Had her chance. 57 unit balance. Back for the Saint soon.

Saturday

Awapuni

Track Slow 7 as at Thursday 8.31 a.m. The forecast is for fine today and tomorrow  so it should get back to a Dead 6 or maybe a little better.

Riverton is a Dead 6 track but has rain forecast for Saturday morning.

I’ve also been through Riverton, Caulfield and Rosehill and can only find two Good Confidence bets, Saint Emilion at $2.30 and Daysee Doom at $3.60 FF. They both map to get their way in front and both come out of strong wins.

Apologies, no Heads Up this weekend but we will be back in the flesh next Friday.

Bet of the day Awapuni Race 8 1.Saint Emilion $2.20 Ff Updated 4.47 p.m.

Value bet of the day Sydney Race 4 1.Daysee Doom $3.60 FF Updated 4.18 p.m.

Sneaky of the Day Race 6 3. Sir Nate $6 FF 3rd $2 

Speed map special Awapuni Race 5 2.The Ice Knight $6 FF 3rd $1.80

Update by 1 p.m. with the Ozzie quaddies.

Caulfield $10 for 11%

Leg 1: 8. Top of the Range
13. Addison
Leg 2: 4. Odeon
Leg 3: 6. Theanswermyfriend
8. Ken’s Dream
9. So Si Bon
10. Widgee Turf
12. Sword of Light
13. Glenall
15. Steel Frost
Leg 4: 1. Milwaukee
6. Star Stealer
8. El Sicario
10. Pick Me Up
11. Written Era
12. Handsome Thief

Update: Sydney quaddie $24 for 5% Yes $980 $49 return 

Leg 1: 1. Gailo Chop
2. Almandin
9. Single Gaze
Leg 2: 1. Aloisia
2. Alizee
3. Bring Me Roses
7. Unforgotten
8. Danzdanzdance
9. Hiyaam
10. All Too Soon
12. Semari
Leg 3: 2. Ecuador
4. Interlocuter
8. Mister Sea Wolf
9. Radipole
10. Cellarman
Leg 4: 5. Osborne Bulls
8. Stonebrook
10. Tribal Wisdom
13. Beau Geste

Awapuni recommended quaddie for 6% for $10

Leg 1: 1. Sword Of Osman
3. Sir Nate
8. Avantage
9. Melt
Leg 2: 2. Mime
4. Heroic Valour
6. Magnum
8. Yearn
Leg 3: 1. Saint Emilion
Leg 4: 1. Bushfire
3. Magic Ivan
5. Razors Edge
7. Dream Dancer
10. Koko Belle
11. Vencedora
12. Lubaya
15. Luen Yat Miracle
16. Toms

Sydney

Race 4 4.20 p.m.

Confidence 3/5

1.Daysee Doom last start here over the same distance drew wide and had to work to get 2nd outer, then they ran to the 600m mark averaging 11.75 per 200m. That was faster than the two other two 1500m race and faster than the two 1200m races on the same day. So they had their chance to run her down but she just kept finding to hold on strongly in the fastest speed rating all day. This time she maps to lead and get a softer time in front. Despite a slight negative weight swing, the advantage she will gain from the softer tempo will outweigh that disadvantage. She has won from  9 from 19 races for a reason- she has that will to win and is third up and probably fitter. RP $2.50, $3.60 FF

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Handfull has been racing very well and rated an FR ( Formpro Rating) of 110 last start in an Open Handicap at Trentham on a similar surface. He just needs to rate 108 to win this. Drawn to get a winning run and he won well here beating the very good Eagle Bay. RP $4.80, $7.50 Ff

Dangers:

6.Disturbance ran home well behind Euphoria at Trentham off an on pace race giving her 5kgs and rated 110 also. Drops 2.5 and meets her 1.5kgs better off. Third up and fitter.

9.Euphoria just got up last start and although up in class, drops to a dangerous weight. She does get keen if they back off and that is likely to happen so is a risk because of that.

Race 2

There looks to be good early speed here with 6 runners looking to lead or be on it early, so an even tempo likely.

11.Sugar Rush 1st$5.10 qu $22   ran ok in a harder field at Trentham last start at set weights. This time she drops in class and gets in on the minimum with in-form Lisa Allpress up. RP $4.50, $5.30 FF

Dangers:

7.Awesome Al won strongly in a good speed rating last start. Up in class but has upside.

1.Awatane 2nd $2.80 giving weight to all and had his chance last start.

5.Keely Be  had her chance last start on a soft lead and fought ok for second. With a soft time on the pace again, could hold on.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

5.Master Pat 1st $12 Qu $62.40  ran home well in a sprint home at Trentham rating strongly. Steps to 2100m for the first time. With a good run likely, can get over these late. RP $6

Dangers:

3.Hank Moody closed nicely last start over 1600m. He rated an FR of 110 at Trentham in a strong Trentham Stakes race. If he rates that again , he’ll bolt in.

6.Challenge  was well ridden to win last start and looks a progressive type.

11.Shared Secrets 2nd $3.20   won like a good horse here in December but hasn’t gone on with it. Blinkers come off.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race.

7.Joe’s Legacy  3rd $2.50  ran on well late in the Derby. Looked good before then and with a decent trip from the wide draw, can do it. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

1.Rock On Wood is a good horse as she showed last start. Drawn wide and will need luck so $3.10 FF is too short.

2.Sherrif 1st $2.80 will be suited by the distance and better draw than his main rivals.

5.Cyclops  races as though he needs 2000m now.

Race 5

2.The Ice Knight3rd $1.80 mainly because of the draw, gets the nod here. He has won his last two strongly and has really turned into a smart looking 3yo. From the Nigel Tiley stable and Leith Innes jumps on. Drawn to get a good run in behind a decent tempo and from there looks the right btype to drive through and beat these. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Gift Of Power gets in nicely at the weights but the wide draw is the concern.

7.Boss is a nice horse and drawn to be a real threat.

Race 6

The speed map shows six runners looking to be on the pace or lead early so a good early tempo likely and with wide runners likely to go forward like Avantage, it should ensure an even tempo, so it sets up for runners with cosy runs or off the pace.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Sir Nate 3rd $2 tri $87 In the Karaka Millions over 1200m drew wide and got back but once balanced up came home in the second fastest last 200m ( 11.80) of the race and was just warming up. He had 49 days off and won going away over 1200m at Trentham over 1200m. Obviously, the 1400m is going to suit, but he does need a good tempo which is probably going to happen. He maps to settle 6th outer, in the perfect spot with Jonathan Parkes up, and get every chance to get over these. RP $4.50, $6.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Sword Of Osman got a soft lead last start( slowest first 600m of the 4 x 1200m races and had to win. Strong win two back at Matamata. This time there are five runners drawn inside him that all have early speed, so he is going to have to work for the lead, and if the inside is off, it makes things trickier for Opie, so $3.30 FF is a bit short.

9.Melt 2nd $1.90 was beaten by a firm track at Ellerslie. Very impressive before that and a Dead to slow track is ideal from the Tiley stable.

8.Avantage 1st $3.80  has the tactical early speed to get into a good spot and is very fit.

Race 7

Early speed from quite a few here and out wide so it should ensure an even tempo.

Confidence: 2/5 and depends on how the track is playing

4.Heroic Valour ran home from the rear in 31.85 at Trentham! He should be suited by a decent tempo here and if the inside is ok, can beat these. RP $3.50, $3.0 FF

Dangers:

8.Yearn did well at Matamata last week when giving weight to them all. Fitter for this and a Dead to Slow track will give her an advantage, as well as the light weight.

6.Magnum  1st $12   has run two good races and third up over 1400m suits.

2.Mime tough mare and with a good run is in this.

 

Race 8

The speed map shows Saint Emilion should get an uncontested lead and a moderate tempo is likely.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Saint Emilion  was a dominant leader and a dominant winner at Ellerslie rating an FR of 117 and he should get his own way in front again. He is relishing his racing and has won on Slow tracks before. The way he is racing, it is hard to see any of these running him down, despite the SW and penalties scale this time. Even so, he would be carrying 60kgs here in a handicap and the next one 58.5 kgs and most others on 54kgs, so he gets in better than a handicap. RP $1.90, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

2.Authentic Paddy should land 2nd outer and with no mid-race pressure likely, can hold on for second.

5.Beefeater  goes well here and from the draw can settle handy and be a place chance from there.

3.Sampson won this race last year and drawn to get a good trip near the pace.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

7.Dream Dancer 1st $6.20 did very well last start when coming from the rear to almost win off a slow pace. Back in class for this . RP $5.00

Dangers:

12.Lubaya  got back off a moderate tempo in a good 3yo field and ran on ok. This is easier and Opie jumps on.

1.Bushfire game second last start at Trentham and 3kgs off again.

10.Koko Belle strong second here two back and nice finish at Ellerslie last start.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!