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Thursday selections below

There is a delay with the FF odds being posted on the TAB site, but the preview is below.

Taranaki

Good morning, The track has come back to a Dead 4 and with a fine day forecast, we should get some good racing. The Rail is out 10m which is quite a way and it usually favours on pace runners, especially if they get any sign of a soft lead.

No good confidence bets at Taranaki today, but there will be an update by 1 p.m. with any bets at the Greyhounds and there may be one there.

Bet of the Day Race 8 1.Wordofmouth $3.10 FF 1st $2.70

Value bet of the day Race 2  7.Vencedora $4 FF 1st $4.80 a nice $120 + for every $10 for the multi or all up on tote

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

9.Lucetta ran home strongly on debut over 1600m, then wasn’t suited by the slower track over 1600m second up. Up over more ground from a good draw suits and gets 1.5kgs off from the Baker/Forsman stable. Should be a few lengths in front of Off With her Head, her main rival, 600m out and that could be the difference in a moderately run race.

Dangers:

8.Off With Her Head 1st $3 was well weighted to go close in an R65 race last start and was a bit stiff. Drops back to a maiden again with 3kgs off to make her very well placed to win. Negative is she gets back and relies on a decent tempo which doesn’t look likely, so it makes her task harder.

1.Producer  did well in R75 company last start when 2nd. Back to maidens with 3kgs off.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 ( The Formpro Ratings Filter tells us that 7 and 9 have clearly rated the best over the distance on a decent surface in the last 12 months. )

7.Vencedora 1st $4.80 drops back out of harder races and drawn well with 1.5kgs off. Last start the rider eased her down as she wasn’t handling the Dead 5 to slow track conditions at Awapuni. She should get a winning run and with her race fitness edge and good form on this track, looks the one. RP $3.20, $4 FF

Dangers:

9.Al Vandaam  should be harder to beat with the rail out 10m and getting a soft time in the lead or near it. Blinkers come off and Troy Harris is simply a better rider than these.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

7.Ristretto 1st $1.90  looked good winning her trial leading all the way and cruising to the line. The stable is firing. RP $3

Dangers:

4.London Express ran a strong third at Trentham on debut and going round a bend will suit better.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

5.Prince Origami 1st $2.50  ran on well on debut. Drawn ideally and will no doubt be ready to win from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP$3.20

Dangers:

1.Ocean Ruler  good 4th in a stronger field last start. The main danger.

2.Obsessive  has the blinkers going on which she has needed.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Wellletsdoit fought on well second up for third over 1600m. Will be fitter now as he is a big horse and will have improved further and in-form Troy Harris jumps on. RP $4.70

Dangers:

10.Raspberry Beret 1st $2  ran a stronger closing third left handed two starts back and battled right handed last start. Back left handed could be the key as she is well thought of by the Baker? Forsman stable.

12.Phillythepower  didn’t fire after a good debut run. Blinkers go on and home track this time.

11.Regal Rock  ran on well off a moderate tempo last start over 1400. 1600m suits now.

Other thoughts:

8.Later On was doing some nice work late last start. Fitter now and if they go hard, could be the upsetter.

2.Startling Reminder battled on under a ride for second in a recent trial. Wide draw no help.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

2.Virtuosos lad won well last start over 1200m and he was strong on the line running his last 600m n 34.39, by far the best in the race. He has an action for a decent track which he got last start. Back to a Dead 4 on a fine day suits now.

Dangers:

7.Power Hata 1st $4 looked good winning here in December and won her trial well recently.

3.Malo Blik won just ok at Trentham and found the R75 jump too much next up. Drawn well which he will need to win.

4.Alvin’s Dream  went out favourite fresh up and battled on after laying in for fifth. Definite improver and 1300m.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

4.Not Usual Prince good third two starts back when handy and fighting well. Won his trial well sharing the lead and kicked well to win easing down. Looks stronger now. Has early speed and from the good draw should get a winning run.

Dangers:

5.Whenharrymetsaddle 1st $5  fought well for a close third last start and with luck from a wide draw can win.

9.Lady Kartel  good 3rd before being lame last start.

10.Mizelli  flew home fresh up .

11.Realm  good 2nd last start and

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Wordofmouth 1st $2.70 quaddie $197  last start had the blinkers go on after some battling runs. He had to work for the lead setting up the fastest first 600m of the 1200m races, kicked well and was run down by the smart Devil May Care in a good speed rating. He needs a better track then the Dead 6 he got then and gets it. Drawn ideally with Troy Harris up. RP $2.80

Dangers:

4.Qian Cheng in his trial sat 2nd outer and drew out after then eased down to win well. Big horse and drawn out a little, so may get caught 3 wide. No value.

10.Wild Child  had more to offer last start when running on in tight room near the rail. Danielle knows her better now.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!