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Friday preview below

 

Awapuni

Good morning,

The track has improved to a Dead 4 from Last Saturday here when the rail was true- it is out 3m today so may be ok for inside runners this time. No good confidence bets today. There is a bit of invisible jumpout form at this meeting so it makes it hard to bet with confidence.

An early preview of Saturday can be seen here.

Bet of the day Race 5 4.Beauden $4.20 FF 1st $3 

Value bet of the day Race 3 9.Starossa $6.50 Ff

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

6.Flamingo 1st $2.20won well two back then flew home late in a strong field at Trentham. Drawn well and weighted ideally. RP $2.80

Dangers:

4.La Bella Rosa has been freshened up and if ready could easily win.

1.Disturbance  loomed as though he was going to win but that rail was slower and he was swamped late. 4kgs off could be the swinger.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Rio Star good third last start and fitter now. Drawn ideally. RP $2.80

Dangers:

5.Bid A Wee  looks a quick improver.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

9.Starossa drove through to win well last start at Wanganui. She was a bit fresh then and sweated up  a bit so would have to improve off that. Drawn to get a good trip and drops 52kgs. RP $4.50

Dangers:

1.Handfull was held up at a vital stage in a stronger field here last start. Gets 3kgs off and back in class.

3.Tavigarde has won twice here and the saddle moved last time.

5.Animator  ran on well last start and has won here over this distance.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

2.Sweepstake 1st $2 nice mare and with a good run on pace could do it. RP $3.50

Dangers:

11.McPhoebe  ran a quiet third in a recent trial and has won 3 times fresh.

4.Rufus Ruffcut best form on wetter tracks but is a nice horse and fresh could do it.

8.Danmulan  did well to win at Trentham and with a good ride could repeat.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Beauden  1st $3 won strongly here two starts back then ran a good 3rd behind two nice 3yos last start in a bit of a sprint home. Drawn to get a good run behind a good speed and with the favourite relying on luck he could drive through and win as he is a very strong 3yo. RP $3.40, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Devil May Care  is well bred and lived up to the when winning decisively last start and the horse he beat won well at Taranaki yesterday, Wordofmouth. Up in class and weight from a wide draw so he will need luck.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Ruby Love 1st $3   battled when she struck the slower inner ground here last Saturday. Back in class but drawn 1 again. Rail out 3m which may help.

Dangers:

2.Remington good run last and looked like he would definitely benefit from the blinkers going on now.

1.Choice Attitude drops back from R85 class with 3kgs off.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and at least an even tempo, so anything with a cosy run or off the pace gets the advantage.

1.All In Vogue  2nd $3 ran a very good fifth on Saturday when 3 wide in the open behind an even tempo against better horses at WFA. This time she meets a weaker field at WFA all on the same weight and drawn to get that cosy run needed to win this. Only one placing from 7 starts here but the last few have been against stronger fields or had bad luck. RP $5.00, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Calligraphy  is back to her best and has always given the impression she would be suited to 2000m with her breeding. She has that will to win and has the tactical speed to get into a winning position.

5.Porcelain Princess  has won 4 from her last 6 starts and needed that last run after she sweated up freely and won well. Fraser Auret is a top trainer and has aimed her at this.

9.Donizetti  will get a good run off the pace and with the gaps at the right time, could do it.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

2.Bushfire  hit the line strongly once clear las start. Ridden cold again, he could get over these late over more ground. RP $5

Dangers:

3.Gorbachev is a capable galloper over a middle distance with above average ratings. Blinkers go on.

7.So It Was did well to win last start and gets 4kgs off again.

8.Tipping Point ran on last start as though he needs more ground now.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!