Home » Results » Saturday April 7 2018 preview below

Saturday April 7 2018 preview below

Update:

In Her Time looks better than when she won fresh up. Track is playing ideally for her. 7 units on tote as $4.20 Ff is too short FF I could have ridden it better than Lane- no urgency from a good gate and settles back and wonders why he got held up! balance 52 units- there may be a bet tomorrow.

La Fille En Jeu looks strong and fit. She should get her own way in front and Lisa can angle to where she thinks the best part is and be very hard to beat. 5 units win on tote and 5 at $2.80 Ff A top class front running ride. +19 units balance 59 units – back for In her Time at 5.48 p.m.

Gee I’d love to see that photo before Xmas! – 9 units. balance 41 units Back for Le Fille En Jeu

The value has gone out of The Precious One after opening at $2.90FF Thursday. She looks relaxed and ready and so does 2.Courte Zarindi so 7 units at $2.10 FF The Precious One and 2 units a win tote on 2.Courte Zarindi

Colin’s $20 multi bet is below to return $178

Australian Racing 07 Apr 2018 13:30 M11 R1 RANDWICK RACES 1100m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt111)
$2.50 Enbihaar (9)54.5
NZ Racing 07 Apr 2018 15:29 M6 R7 RICCARTON PARK RAC 1600m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt607)
$2.10 The Precious One (5)56.5
NZ Racing 07 Apr 2018 16:20 M2 R8 TE AROHA RACES 1600m
Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1208)
$1.70 Cote D’Or (1)57

Saturday

Good morning,

Te Aroha has come back to a Dead 4 and with a fine day forecast should get back to a Good 3.

Riccarton is a Good 3 with drizzle which won’t hurt the chances of our two best bets down there.

Colin won the $20 Multi question with David Walsh being the correct answer being the trainer of Zirna. I’ll post his bet by noon.

There are three Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or better and they will be updated 2 minutes before the race for the 50 unit bank.

 

Bet of the day Riccarton Race 7 5.The Precious One Opened $2.90 now $2.20 FF Updated 3.27 p.m.

Value bet of the day  Sydney Race 8 8.In Her Time $4 FF Updated 5.48 p.m. 3rd $1.50

Speed map Special Riccarton Race 8 5.La Fille En Jeu $3.00 FF Updated 4.02 p.m. 1st $3 

Sneaky of the day Te Aroha Race 7 5.Sultan Of Swing $7.50 FF 1st $5 

 

The Te Aroha track is looking like it will get back to a Good 3 by race day with the fine weather forecast. The rail was out 6 metres here last meeting so expect that inside 6 metres to be an advantage for on pace runners early on.

Heads Up is below with the $20 multi question. The Money Shot’s sports tip is The Storm -7.5 points Opt 2422 #4 $1.82 Saturday 5 p.m.

Plus we talk about fresh up winners and how to find them, plus a preview of two races from Te Aroha

Randwick

Race 8 5.50 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

8.In Her Time is a very good mare. She won in better time than Redzel on the same day as the Everest last campaign. Her win fresh up was just terrific and the trainer has aimed her at this race all along. Maps to get an ideal run about 6th or 7th off a hot speed, and she is very good at chasing horses down. With her liking for the track and being right at her peak for this, she is a good chance to run these down, including Redzel. RP $3.00, $4.20 FF

Te Aroha

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

3.Lovelight is a very good mare and a Dead 4 track will be ideal for her here. Should land 2nd outer on a moderate tempo and be hard to run down. RP $3.00, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Princess El Jay is tough and just keeps giving. If she gets a soft run on the pace or even leading, she could beat these.

2.Jake The Muss is best suited to a truly run race and may not get that here.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

9.Needlepoint was unlucky fresh up when getting out too late but found the line well for 4th. Has placed against good horses and with the blinkers going on can win. RP $4.50, $6.80 FF

Dangers:

16.Bravissimo closed off strongly last start in good time. Very fit now and with a good track into it, can be in this.

14.The Last Word  would need to have strengthened up a bit to back with confidence.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Bizzwinkle looks set to get his own way in front again and when he gets that, he is always hard to run down. RP $3.70

Dangers:

6.Cheeky Boy ran a solid third last start. Freshened and drawn to get a cosy trail.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.The Great Southern ran a strong third at Trentham after getting a good run. Should land near the pace and be the one to beat. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Pop Star Princess won well last start and should be even fitter for this.

1.Swisswatch  likely to try and lead all the way so needs a soft time at some stage.

3.Sacred Day  is a good horse and if they go hard enough, could do it.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Light Shadow 1st $10   put in a top effort to almost win at Ellerslie being wide all the way. Then next up went too fast in front ( fastest opening average 200m all day!) but did well to hold on for fourth. Drawn the rail and if he can begin like he did last start, he will get every chance back in class. RP $4.50, $9.20 FF

Dangers:

15.My Dakota  closed off well late fresh up. Nice mare and 1600m suits now.

12.Smart Thinking will be fitter for that last run and with a good run should be in this.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky race.

4.Killarney looked a definite improver after his fighting second fresh up to the smart Cote D’Or. He is best suited to a solidly run race and with Billie in here, he will get that. Drawn to get a good trip and with Vinnie up, will get every chance. RP $3.50, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Sleeping Beauty  will be ready to fire fresh after a soft trial run. Drawn ideally.

Race 7

Early speed from 7-8-11-13

Confidence: 2/5

5.Sultan Of Swing 1st $5 has been racing very well. He beat home Ocean Emperor last start who won a Gr 2 next up. Two starts back charged home behind Julius in fast time.  He is better this way round and from the wide draw should be able to slide forward and get into a one off position with a clean beginning and be in the right spot to beat these. RP $4.50, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

9.Romancer flashed home behind the very good Julius over 1200m two starts back at Ellerslie.

4.All Roads is a big horse and has two trials to get ready. The last was an easy win. May get back off a moderate tempo though and find it hard to win.

3.Ronchi  drops back from WFA racing and if in the right mood could do it.

 

Race 8

The speed map shows early speed from three runners ( 3-6-8) from out wide and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5 ( I’ve switched here with Cote D’Or third up and being set for it.

5.Cote D’Or  is peaking nicely for this third up. Best when saved for the last run and should get that chance here. She has been specifically set for this and that could be the edge she has over the last 50 metres with her powerful last 200 metres. RP $3.80, $4.50 FF

 

Dangers:

3.Darscape Princess  did very well to win two starts back when using up petrol early from a wide gate, kicked away on the turn and was too tough. Last start at Ellerslie in Group 1 company, got back off a moderate tempo and showed how good she was by closing hard for second in clearly the best sectionals. She will have had a chance to freshen up and with a winning run near the pace likely, she can win. Opened $3.60 and into $3.20 FF

2.Coldplay  is a tough mare and the better surface suits this fighter.

1.Thee Auld Floosie better this way round and better surface will help.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

4.Unfazed  has always had the ability to win a few races and is putting it altogether now. Drawn the inside and if she doesn’t get too far back, with an even tempo likely and if the inside is ok, she can win again after that top win last start. RP $5

Dangers:

13.Thatsforsure  has found the line well last two. Right in this with a good pace.

16.Stand Firm had the blinkers go on last time and she was just too good. Smart mare and could do it.

1.Shadows  has had a freshener and with 2kgs off will be charging, especially in the inside is off.

Riccarton

 

Race 7

Confidence: 4/5

5.The Precious One looked very good last campaign winning both of her races easily. Then after a spell came back and looked stronger. She relaxed well and when the gap appeared and she balanced up, trounced Pippi Rea, who won in good time in an R75 race at Timaru on Wednesday. She is bred to be top class being out of 10 win The Jewel who won the 2002 1000 Guineas going from 1200m to 1600m and looks every bit as good as her. She relaxes well and meets some nice ones here but she handles any ground and with a Good track forecast, that should suit her the best. Chris Johnson suits her ideally. RP $1.90, $2.90

Dangers: very bad luck

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

The speed map shows 5.La Fille En Jeu 1st $3  can get the same lead she got here last start. She gets in here on 53kgs with Lisa Allpress up, and with the 3.5 to 7kg advantage over her main rivals, Lisa will be saving as much as she can to sustain a sprint from the 400m mark. RP $2.60, $3.10

Dangers:

2.Boots ‘N’ All  keeps on winning but is giving 6 kgs to La Fille En Jeu.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!