Saturday April 14 preview below

Update:

Suggested Sydney quaddie $10 for 13%

Leg 1:	2. Gailo Chop 3. Humidor 9. Winx
Leg 2:	1. Almandin 13. Sir Charles Road
Leg 3:	1. Daysee Doom 3. Dixie Blossoms 5. Silent Sedition
Leg 4:	3. Spright 5. Ravi 10. Quilista 11. Sugar Bella

1.Viridine has the track playing well for him as he will come off the pace. He looks fit and strong. 6 units on  the tote a win. I bet Bowman wouldn’t have ridden Winx like that! Closing Balance 59.5 units makes it 12 profitable weeks from the first 15 weeks of the year and a net profit of 99.0 units for the year.

This is the toughest field Winx has faced for a long time.She has drawn the outside and is going to cover extra ground or have to snag to last which I can’t see Bowman doing. No, I haven’t been drinking, but you heard it here first, she can get beaten today. She was in trouble until the barriers opened!

2.Woodloveto looks fit and relaxed, and the track is playing ideally for him. 5 units win at $2.30 FF and 5 units won on tote. Won well with a top ride getting the whip in the left hand ASAP.  Paid $2.80 tote! +15.5 units. Balance 65.5 units

 

Hastings update:

Hastings has a $25k Bonus in it so offers the best opportunity in New Zealand. Last week’s quaddie at Te Aroha got to $128,242 and paid $19,112 with Rich Billie Marsh $17, Sultan Of Swing $5, Miss Wilson $10 and O’Angel $9,

In the first leg, 3.Lucyinrio and 6.Honneur Noir both look strong chances. 1.Scandalo gets 4kgs off and goes well here so needs to be in as well. 4.Disturbance has had the tempo and track bias go against him last two starts so put in with 4kgs off again.

In leg 2 there are a few chances. If you go too wide we decrease our percentage so take 1-5-6-7-10

In the third leg, 7.Rikki Tikki Tavi does look well placed and the money is coming for him. 5-6 and 9 are realistic chances if she strikes problems.

The last leg suits horses looking for a slow track. 3.Redefine comes into it now and De Niro is out of it with a slow track now. 4-7- and 9 come into it now.

$16 for a 5% bet

Leg 1:	1. Scandalo 3. Lucyinrio 4. Disturbance 6. Honneur Noir
Leg 2:	1. Nymph Monte 5. Highlad 6. All In Vogue 7. Hunta Pence 10. Richie McHorse
Leg 3:	5. Deals In Heels 6. Gift Of Power 7. Rikki Tikki Tavi 9. Barcelo
Leg 4:	3. Redefine 4. Jessiegee 7. Hutch 9. Glory Days

Update:

Jan’s $20 multi bet is below to return $180.80. Good luck

NZ Racing	14 Apr 2018 14:32	M4 R4 HASTINGS RACES 2500m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt404)	$2.30 Woodloveto (5)57
NZ Racing	14 Apr 2018 16:15	M4 R7 HASTINGS RACES 1200m Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1407)	$2.10 Rikki Tikki Tavi (4)53
NRL	14 Apr 2018 17:00	NZ Warriors v Brisbane Points Start (Opt2416)	$1.87 Warriors -5.5

Saturday

Heads Up Below with a $20 multi bet question, The Money Shot’s best sports bet and previews of key races tomorrow. Jan won the $20 multi bet and I’ll post her bet by noon once she lets me know what it is.

The rail is true at Hastings and Brendan, our Track Walker said it is likely to play fairly and with only a few showers forecast, should be around a Dead 4.

Te Rapa is a Dead 5 and with rain forecast this evening and tomorrow morning, it will likely get back to a slow surface.

So it is a wait and see day of punting.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 4 2.Woodloveto $3.30 FF Friday less deductions. $2.40 1st $2.80 FF 8.20 p.m. Saturday Updated 2.30 p.m.

Best multi with Sydney Race 5 1.Viridine $3.10 FF Updated 3.48 p.m.

Sneaky of the Day Hastings Race 7 7.Rikki Tikki Tavi $9.80 FF 3rd $2.20

The Money Shot’s best Sports bet Saturday 5 p.m. Warriors – 5.5  $1.87

It is a tricky day of racing with a Dead 5 at Hastings and most horses wanting a better track and Te Rapa staying a Dead 5 after 10 mm of rain overnight. Remember, the key to making money at racing is to avoid as many losing bets as you can in between the winning ones.

It is a day for quaddies so I will post the recommended ones by 1 p.m.

 

 

Hastings

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Wafer big second two starts back on a Dead 5 track. Rated well in the Cuddle stakes on a track that was too firm for her last start. With an even tempo likely, can get over these. RP $4, $4.50

Dangers:

5.Smiling More  looked a definite improver out of Matamata and drawn ideally.

9.Lubaya  hampered early and ran on well for fifth last start. Good tempo will suit.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

6.All In Mana 2nd $2.80  will be suited by the good tempo so he can relax better. With a good trip likely, he can grind these down. RP $5, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Pep Torque drawn to get a winning run and can upset.

3.Windsor game second last start and just needs a a bit of luck from the wide draw.

1.Hugo The Boss drawn the ace and if left alone in front could hold on.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

3.Madison County 1st  $4  ran home well on debut and 1300m suits. RP $4.50, $4.20 Ff

Dangers:

10.What A Smasher  drops back out of a Group 1 race and 1200m suits better.

1.Langkawi 2nd $3,40 qu $19 will be right in this with luck from a wide draw.

Race 4

Confidence: 4/5

2.Woodloveto 1st $2.80 has always looked as though a distance like this one of 2500m would suit him down to the ground. He won easily last start in R65 company over 2200m easing down. He will get back and lope along and Matt Cameron just needs to pick the right one to follow into the race and he should be too good for these. RP $1.90, $3.30FF

Dangers:

9.Owned fought well last start for second and 2500m will suit.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Lucyinrio  was taken on by temple Tiger last start and gave the advantage to the winner, Go Nicholas from the back. She is fitter now and drawn to lead and will likely hand up without a fight if Tiger gets keen again and take a trail. From there with a moderate tempo, she could do it. RP $3.50, $3.90 Ff

Dangers:

6.Honneur Noir  just keeps on stepping up and should get the right run.

1.Scandalo 1st $8   with 4kgs off comes right into it.

Race 6

The speed map shows and even tempo likely with four runners keen to be on the pace or lead, which should suit all runners in the 10 horse field.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

10.Richie McHorse 1st $6.80 did well to get through for second last start in a race that suited the winner. Needs a Decent surface and if he gets that, on 53kgs he gets his chance to win a good race as he is a big fella and will notice the drop to 53kgs, his lightest weight ever. RP $5, $6.50

Dangers:

6.All In Vogue got out and balanced too late last start and would have won in a couple more strides. Should get a winning run and has won here before.

5.Highlad  just beat a weaker field last week. This is harder though and he jumps to 58kgs.

1.Nymphe Monte  is ready to strike form now and drawn to get all favours.

Race 7

The speed map shows good speed out wide by a few and inside as well. So an even pace likely suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race with fresh runners making it tricky.

7.Rikki Tikki Tavi 3rd $2.30  last start was 3 wide all the way and still ran the second fastest last 600m of the race. She maps to get a good run about 5th or 6th behind that even tempo and is nicely weighted to come through late. RP $4.80, $9.80 Ff

Dangers:

6.Gift Of Power drops to 53.5kgs and is unbeaten with 54kgs or less ( 3 wins) drawn wide but she has the early speed to cross over and lead with the lighter weight, and Matt Cameron suits her.

5.Deals In Heels ran home nicely for third in her trial after travelling wide. Lisa Allpress jumps on. $3.60 is a bit short on a Dead track against these though.

9.Barcelo  just went down last start. Tends to take a few strides to get up to speed so may end up in behind here, but he is in the right form to upset with the right run.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.De Niro 1st $12.90 ran a nice quiet trial for fifth and wasn’t asked for a serious effort. Ran second fresh up last campaign and can slide over and lead these. Won second up this time last year here. He should be ready to win as he prefers a Dead or better track and they will be in short supply soon. If the inside is ok, can hold on. RP $5, $6.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Aileen Grace is a nice mare and drawn to get a good run.

6.Keely Be racing well and drawn to get the right run.

3.Redefine  game third fresh up. best form on wetter tracks but drawn well tough.

 

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

7.Top Actress very fit and drops back to 1600m. Drawn to get a winning run and be the one to beat. RP $4.50, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Don’t Lie To Me racing well and drawn to get every chance.

8.Misdummer Magic  with a good run from the draw, should be right in this.

Race 2

The speed map shows good speed out wide early and an even tempo suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5 but wait and see how track is.

8.Pawlonia is a very good filly who did extremely well to almost win at Trentham at just her second start. She ran home in the fastest last 600m 32.98 in a race that suited on pace runners. She is a very good filly and the side winkers go on at the right time dropping back to 1200m. She maps to get the right run about 6th or 7th off a decent tempo and from there, is going to be very hard to keep out. She handled a Dead track ok on debut but a slow track brings others into it more, so wait and see.$2.40, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Prom Queen will go forward but there is some speed inside her so she will need to work early and they are unlikely to not give her much peace, so it will set up nicely for Pawlonia.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Veearma ran a close third last start and kept up her stride rate over the 1600m right to the line. She has won over 2100m and looks the one to beat. Dead to slow ok. RP $4, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Prince Mambo  goes well here and if he can get out and slide to the lead, it wouldn’t surprise to see him kick and upset these.

5.Challenge  needed that last run and is a capable galloper.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Voler Pour Moi fought on well for third last start and the step to 2100m looks ideal now. Gets in with a winning weight. RP $5, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Divine Duke won here in June on a slow track over 2100m in this grade.

5.Rosso Corsa  has the blinkers going on and the step to 2100m suits.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Go Nicholas won very well last start from the back. Gets back but despite the moderate tempo up front, the small field will allow him to slide into it near the turn and Cooksley knows him very well so he can come with a well timed run. RP $3.20, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

3.Ugo Foscolo 1st $3.40  looked in need of the run last start and trialled better. If he gets a soft lead can do it.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

4.He’s Cavalier  did well second up when 3 wide in the open and stuck well for fifth. Fitter now and drawn to get a winning run. Wet track ok. RP $5, $10 FF

Dangers:

10.Stacey Ann is racing in career best form and drawn to get a good run on the pace.

1.Our King Sway  if the pace is on can swamp them late.

3.Waipipi Lad will go forward and with a good run should be in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

4.Ottavio was just beaten fresh up and looks stronger now. Drawn well and any rain will only help his chances. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers: 

9.Pitch And Switch 2nd $2.20  big run last start 4 wide all the way. If inside is ok, can win.

10.Cappucine 1st $3.90  won well here on debut on a Dead 4 track. Wide draw no help though unless inside goes off.

14.Indian Maid good run fresh up and any rain is only a help.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5 but just depends on how the track is playing so wait and see.

2.Jetwings fresh up sweated up a little, got back from a wide draw, had to come widest on the turn but let down strongly running the fastest last 600m of the race. This time he is fitter, drawn the inside and has the early speed to settle in the trail or 3 back inner, and with a better run likely then Mihaul, he does look good value at $8 Ff. He won over 1200m in HK from barrier 12 after was wide in the early part and powered home out wide to win well in 1.09.73. Needs a decent surface though so wait and see. RP $4.50

Dangers:

6.Mihaul 1st $2.80  looked good winning fresh up after a long break. Should only improve off that too. Nice field though so no anchor from the wide draw with Jetwings getting all favours.

8.Bevan Street  is a nice horse and if the inside is off, comes right into it.

12.Its Destinys Child gets in on a winning weight and is in top form.

Sydney

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

1.Viridine Missed after being ridden for luck- I wonder what the crowd would have done to Bowman had he rode Winx the same way.  is third up and well placed to peak third up. He did very well last start behind In her Time who franked that form. It was a wet track then too and his action says he needs a firm track to show his best which he should get. Back to his own age group at set weights with Hugh Bowman up says he just needs to slot in one off about 7th or 8th and with an even tempo likely, looks too good. Rp $2.30, $3.10 FF