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Thursday preview below

Woodville

The track has come back to a Slow 9 and with only the odd shower forecast, it should stay around that. The frustrating thing about CD meetings is that they are riddled with invisible jumpout form which makes it very hard to have any confidence in the form in low key meetings like this, and to bet with any confidence. Personally I avoid the CD for serious betting for that reason. We have plenty of other choices to bet on. The bookies should have odds on how many trainers will mention that the horse that just won for them won a recent jumpout after the race.

I’ll post an early preview of Saturday by 5 p.m.

No Good Confidence bets.

Bet of the day Race 4 1.Fearless $2 FF

Value bet of the day Race 3 6.Thatz David $8.20 FF

Best Big Value bet Race 7 7.Later On $19 and $4.80 Ff

Early quaddie $5.40 for 20%

Leg 1: 1. Venerate
6. May We All
7. Bastille Babe
Leg 2: 1. El Bayardo
2. Zac Brown
6. Nadiasstar
Leg 3: 1. Tallyho Twinkletoe
2. It’s A Wonder
6. Thatz David
Leg 4: 1. Fearless

 

Late quaddie suggested bet for $8 for 5%

Leg 1: 1. Choice Attitude
2. Prawn Star
4. Worldclass
6. Wapiti
12. Bellissimo
Leg 2: 1. Heineken Rocks
2. Vannoss
5. Yakety Yak
10. Dalla Mosa
Leg 3: 3. Candy Belt
7. Later On
8. Lorde Have Mercy
9. Cookie Time
Leg 4: 1. All The Talk
4. Reliably Perky

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Venerate charged home last start for second and will be even fitter. Gets 3kgs off. RP $3.00, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

6.May We All 1st $3 tri $20  good improver’s third last start and slow to heavy track suits.

7.Bastille Babe a slower track is going to suit better.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.El Bayardo has the three best Formpro Ratings in the last year and drops back from a harder R75 race on Saturday. Fitter and hard to beat. RP $3.40, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Zac Brown good run last start and won third up last campaign.

6.Nadiastar 1st $5.60  rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Thatz David won a similar race second up last campaign at this time of year. He is going to lead these and with the 3kgs off, has the weight advantage to allow him to hold on if he is fit enough. RP $5, $.20 Ff

Dangers:

2.It’s A Wonder ran home strongly fresh for fourth and has the two best FRs in the last year. Gets 3kgs off.

1.Tallyhotwinkletoe 1st $2.60 game second last start and fitter now.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Fearless  looked good winning his trial from off the pace. Debut run was very good and set to win fresh up. RP $2.50, $2 FF

Dangers:

8.Wonderful Barbie has the ability to test the favourite of ready.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

1.Choice Attitude will find this easier after racing well in harder fields. Gets 3kgs off. RP $5, $6.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Worldclass won a recent jumpout impressively and has won fresh up on a slow track over 1300m at Taupo. Blinkers go on which indicates he is fit enough to win.

6.Wapiti ran home nicely for third in his trial and looked ready to go well fresh.

12.Bellissimo 1st $13.70 good third last start after being trapped 3w in the open. Has won here on a Dead 6 track.

2.Prawn Star with the right run could do it.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

2.Vannoss ran well against better horses than these. Ran on nicely in the slower inner ground in a recent trial.

Dangers:

1.Heineken Rocks 1st $3.50solid second fresh up. Had a few goes but with the right run could do it.

5.Yakety Yak looked to blow out on debut after leading but still ran third. Has a good wet track action and gets 4kgs relief.

10.Dalla Mosa ran on well last start and has a fitness edge over most.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

8.Lorde Have Mercy fresh up drew wide, snagged to last, but ran home with a sustained finish out wide in the fastest last 600m of the race. 1600m looks ideal and Jonathan Parkes knows her better now. A Slow 9 track should be ok. RP $3.80, $3.25 FF

Dangers:

7.Later On found the line well before her last start but was ridden on the pace last start and didn’t finish it off. Ridden quieter here, could upset. $19 FF

9.Cookie Time  ran on late when clear fresh up. 1600m suits.

3.Candy Belt back to 1600m will suit with Lisa Allpress up.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.All The Talk 1st $5.30 drew wide last start and had to snag back. He was near last on the turn, got out and 200m out changed legs and really got into his work well to finish 5th just as fast as the second horse, Lincoln Star, who won well next up. He gets his head down nicely so the 1600m suits well. Drawn better this time and should land closer and from there be the one to beat. RP $3.00

Dangers:

4.Reliably Perky 2nd $1.70 has run two solid thirds against stronger maiden fields over ground. Drops back to 1600m with the blinkers going on. Has a fitness edge too. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

5.Dashing Ruby ran a fair race last start and has a good wet track action. Fitter and the blinkers go on. If inside is ok could do it.

3.Locharburn ran a nice 4th in his last trial last year. Nice galloper from the Myers stable.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!