Wednesday preview below

Good morning,

I have put the Updated Good Confidence bets on hold until the Spring. With the wet tracks upon us now, and more favourites getting beaten, and more outsiders coming in, I am starting up a quadddie syndicate here and it closes this Friday night.

Good luck,

Neil

 

Bet of the day Awapuni  Race 4  10.La Souer $2.70 Ff

Value bet of the day Avondale Race 2 9.Voleur Pour Moi  $5.20 FF 3rd $1.80 

Sneaky of the day Awapuni Race 7 6.Slimline $7 FF

The Warriors +6.5 $1.87 has to be a good bet tonight as well.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

12.Lucetta ran home strongly last start over 2000m and 2100m will suit ideally now. RP $4

Dangers:

11.Chiara  is bred to go well over ground and ran home better last start over 1600m.

9.Mod Maude  1st $16.30 led and battled well for fourth last start. Fitter now.

7.Raqisa should get the ideal run and be ready now.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

9.Voleur Pour Moi  had no luck in the running from the turn last start. She had a bit to offer and nicely weighted here. Ran some above average sectionals last campaign. RP $4, $5.20 Ff

Dangers:

2.Makdanife  ran home strongly for a close 7th last start. Drops in class and drawn well.

7.My Dakota  strong seconds last start but up in ground against some handy horses in this grade.

6.Splendido with the right run could upset.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

12.Paint The Town freshened up and will be ready to win. Shown enough to say she can beat these. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Verbaliser finished hard second up and is fitter now.

3.Swith In Time 1st $16.30 from the Tiley stable with no trials form. Showed enough to include from last campaign.

13.Fine and Dandee  is going to win at least a maiden and with a good run today could be the day.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Symphonic did very well at Trentham in a strong field. Battled in an even stronger field last start. This is more like it for her. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Smart Dragon  won well last start and can go on with it with a good run.

2.Marciano drawn to get all favours.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

2.Ohceedee  1st $4.20  has rated strongly in better fields. Gelded. Wide draw no help though. RP $5

Dangers:

10.The Last Word seems to find one or two better each time and hasn’t finished it off as well as other.

14.Dream On will be ready to fire fresh.

12.Dream good 3rd here behind nice horses. Will be ready.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

2.Media Sensation 1st $1.70  did well to win after working to lead. Looks to have a future. RP $3

Dangers:

8.Ritzy Sparkle looked good winning his trial leading and scampering away to win easily. Drawn the inside and if that is ok can win.

4.Simogramor well bred and has been given time to mature.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

5.Tuscan Whistler won well fresh up after a quiet trial. Drops his head nicely and 1400m suits now. RP $4

Dangers:

10.Toy Kingdom looked good winning last start and has a future.

2.O’He Can won well here fresh and ok second up. With a good run can go close.

9.Belle Fascino  if inside is off can upset.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

14.Snitz Of Time  ran home well last start and is a  nice galloper. Ready now.

Dangers:

5.Franklin 1st $3.80 strong third fresh up and fitter now.

8.Reliable Lad did well after a tough run last start.

13.Cameo  keeps doing enough to keep you interested. If inside goes off, could do it.

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence:1/5

11.Winehouse  ran on well last start and more ground suits. RP $6

Dangers:

9.Ravenhill 1st $12.60  looks like she might like more ground now.

6.Stunning  has had plenty of chances but a great place bet.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Qian Cheng 1st $2.10  is an improver after a strong second to a nice horse last start. Drawn to be harder to beat this time.

Dangers:

2.Rio Star keeps on improving. Needs luck from the draw but ready to win.

7.Magico  ready to fire fresh after good trial win.

11.La Landonne ran in the March 14 Levin Jumpouts and has been backed early. You can’t bet in this race now not being able to see what it has done at that jumpout.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

8.Book Smart won well last start and has a fitness edge. RP $5

Dangers:

9.Tiffany’s Time ready to fire fresh

3.Gerardasun has had two trials and will be ready with 2kgs off.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

10.La Souer charged home last start ridden quieter in 34.98 which was one of the fastest last 600m all day. 1400m suits even better and drawn to get a quiet run midfield and bury these. RP $2.20, $2.70 Ff

Dangers:

1.Benson  ran on well last start and 1400m suits.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Roll The Gold did well to win sitting 3w in the open last start. Drawn better and tough so hard to beat. RP $4.50

Dangers:

4.Tavigarde drawn to get all favours and be right in it.

9.Rosetta found 2000m too far at WFA last start. This is more like it.

3.St Ransom ran third at this meeting last year fresh up. Nice 2nd in his trial and gets 3kgs off.

10.Rough Cut  1st $12.70  has rated well against good horses. Fresh up could surprise.

Other thoughts:

6.All In Luck has had 12 starts at R75 level for a third and fresh up has only placed once.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Regal Winks fitter now and is a nice horse in the right race. RP $4. $5.20

Dangers:

6.Bojangles 1st $6.80 will be ready to fire fresh and has won fresh up.

1.The Growler looked good winning at Wanganui. Gets 2kgs off.

3.Nom Du beel drawn to get all favours and fitter now.

8.Judith Kate  found 1550m too far last start. Back to 1400m suits.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

6.Slimline  won this race last year on a similar surface. Has been racing well in strong fields. Drawn ideally. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers:

10.Flamingo is a nice mare and just keeps on stepping up now. The wide draw makes it harder in a field like this though.

8.Ruby Armani 1st $11.30 strong second here last start and 1550m could be ideal now.

1.Shadows Cast 1st $2 drawn to get all favours and right in this.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

4.Handsome Return  won well here last start and should get the right trip again.

Dangers:

8.Wafer  is better than that last run.

6.Da Jin Shan will find this easier.

7.Nadiastar 1st $2.50  can go close as she is very fit.