Saturday April 28 preview below

Good morning,

The rain is heading south here  from Auckland and it is just a matter of when it arrives. They may get away with it coming late in the afternoon but obviously it is a wait and see day if you are punting seriously. Hastings shouldn’t get it till tonight.

The quaddie syndicate has over $7,000 in it and I’ll be posting the first bets here, maybe for Te Rapa and Melbourne, at least 30 minutes before the first leg is run so I can get all the up to date information etc. You can win a month’s free sub ( Closes Monday night)  to Formpro by answering a simple question in the Heads Up vidcast below, plus the Money Shot and I preview the two main races at Te Rapa, plus much more.

It is just one of those days where I have no Good Confidence bets. There are some even fields so if you are in the Quadddie syndicate, that will give you a good interest.

The Money Shot’s best bet is Newcastle to upset manly tonight Head to Head at $2.35 ( Closes 8 p.m.) Yes

Bet of the day Hastings race 5 4.Animator $4.20 FF

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 7 8.Lubaya $4.20 FF 1st $3.60 

Sneaky of the Day Hastings race 2 9.Londaro $8 FF

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

4.Trisha Lea ran a game second to a strong favourite in Woodloveto last start. Fitter now and any rain will only help.

Dangers:

5.Princess El Jay 1st $6.30  keeps on giving her best and with a good run is right in this.

2.Jake The Muss needs a decent tempo track and could get both and be the one to beat.

6.Epae Road  did well ridden quieter last start.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Volpe Veloce  is the class horse of the race and has come back stronger and bigger this time. She is going to target Brisbane, which looks ideal for her. She’s got plenty of pudding but from the inside draw, Jake will be able to give her a cosy run and as long as the track is not severely biased to the middle, she should beat these. RP $2.20, $1.95

Danger:

4.Love Affair 1st $4.40  is the obvious danger but would not want any rain.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Nirvana In Fire was a bit too fresh last start and raced keenly but fought well. Norton bit goes on to help relax him. Fitter for this and drawn ideally. RP $3.30

Dangers:

4.Star Peformance 1st $3.30 looked good winning his two trials. Drawn ideally.

13.Zaniah drawn to get all favours and any rain should be ok.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Karisto  1st $3.70 closed off nicely here fresh up then ran out of room late. Looked a definite improver out of it and 1600m will suit as will any rain. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Lincoln Raider strong late finish last start and 1600m suits on a Dead to slow ok.

1.Not Usual Talent  stepped up again last start and 1600m suits.

7.Obsessive  with the blinkers going on the last two starts has gained confidence ansd shown her ability. Well bred and in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Our Abbadean 1st $5.30  won strongly at Awapuni rating an FR of 110, then improved to 113 last start when running a game second to Richie McHorse giving him plenty of weight. There looks to be a moderate to even tempo here and she can settle closer than she has and from there, looks ready to win again. A Dead to Slow 7 track is ok as she ran a close second last start at Hastings on a Slow 7 track. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Nicoletta ran a game 3rd here on a Slow track behind Lizzie L’Amour over 2000m at WFA. Strong 3rd last start to Miss Wilson. Back to 2000m where she may get an uncontested lead on a similar slow track, she could pinch it.

1.Thee Auld Floozie did very well to grab 2nd at Te Aroha after having the toughest run in the race 3w in the open. The wide draw may be a plus.

8.Youwantmore will relish any rain and can sneak into a place if there is a bit.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race and track conditions will play a big part.

2.Trueman if the rain did come really comes into it. He’s a good horse and has won here on a slow track over 1400m.

6.Chicane ran a strong 2nd to  good horse in Mihaul last start and he won again next up.

3.Cinematic 1st $6 has won her last two well and gets 4kgs off again.

9.South Fork keeps stepping up and if inside is ok can win this.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race

9.Paulownia is a classy filly who is going to win a few races. The Blinkers replace the winkers to help sharpen her up more. The wet tracks aren’t helping but on a reasonable Dead track, where the wide draw could be a help, she can get over these. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Hanger 2nd $3.10 has gone from strength to strength now. He won really well at Matamata, and also last start on a heavy track which he wasn’t totally happy in. He is better left handed and if the inside is no big negative, he can win.

8.Astor  won’t mind a wet track and is right on top of her game. Back to 1200m after a very impressive trial win, she will be right in this.

7.Malambo  won well here last start driving hard late. Drawn to get all favours again.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

10.Showemup tough run wide in the open last start and stuck well. 1400m suits better. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Leeds is a definite improver from his fresh run when looming and blowing out in the slower ground.

9.Crafty Jess is ready to fire fresh up after two nice trials. Looked the type to improve with time on her side.

7.Grand Rio  is a good horse and should do well this campaign. Won trial well and gets 3kgs off.

Hastings

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

10.Sacred Delight   closed off strongly for second last start and is peaking now. RP $4

Dangers:

6.Abacus 1st $3.10  looks the main danger and also peaking now.

1.Vannos  nice finish last start. 1600m suits.

Race 2

9.Londaro is a strong good horse who held on well sitting outside a moderate tempo last start. Up in grade but drawn to get a winning run and is a good ew chance on a track he won both his races on. Maps to get a nice run in behind and he is best chasing down others.  RP$5, $8 and $2.40 Ff

Dangers:

7.Hinerangi beaten fair and square last start and 42.80 is a bit short.

3.Disturbance  found line hard here last start and gets 4kgs off.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

12.Total Excess 1st $3.10 qu $11 looked good in his last trial travelling easily all the way. Is ready to fire. RP $4

Dangers:

15.Not Usual June 2nd 2.20  has the blinkers going on which will definitely help. Drawn ideally.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

1.Carson River  disappointed last start after a very good fresh up run but may have been a bit flat. Nice horse and can bounce back. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.One Prize One Goal 1st $$13 can bounce back here.

9.Wonder Woman drawn to get a winning run and capable of winning it.

10.Gottenburg won his trial well and is ready to fire fresh.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Animator has had two runs back now and his last run showed he definitely needs a middle distance now. He has won 3rd, 4th and 5th up and third up this time, looks well placed to win. Jonathan Parkes jumps back on who has won on him before and he should give him a good run. Negative is it is his first run over ground this campaign. RP $3.70, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Royal Ruby drops in class with 2kgs off. If left alone could do hard for Animator to run down.

5.Itellyouonething 1st $4.20   won well last start and drawn to get all favours.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.De Niro  won really well here fresh up and on a better surface has to be even better suited. Can slide over and lead or sit 2nd outer outside Lucyinrio and kick on these and be a good chance to hold on. RP $5, $11 FF

Dangers:

5.Deals In Heals closed off very strongly in a solidly run race in the fastest last 600m of the day. She won second up last campaign on a slow 9 track. I’d like to see her get more rain to get to a slow so the $2 is a bit short.

2.Go Nicholas will get back and the harder they go, the better his chances.

6.Lucyinrio will be improved by that last run and may have been a bit flat as well.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

8.Lubaya 1st $3.60 was beaten by a moderate tempo last start when coming home from the back in the second fastest last 600m all day in 35.18 which was faster than most Open class runners over 1200m. There looks to be a better pace here and Chris Johnson will suit her nicely. RP $3.40, $4.20FF

Dangers:

2.Johnny Lincoln in that same race as Lubaya unwound late too for second. Main danger.

1.Ali Baba freshened up and back to R65 grade with 2kgs off.

7.What A Diva has rated strongly in better fields.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Manhattan Flame in his last race at Te Rapa he came from last after being slow away and ran the fourth fastest last 600m all day and came along the slower inner ground. He ran fourth, under a length from the winner, and won second up last campaign. That pattern looks set to repeat over 1400m with 2kgs off. RP $4.50 $6.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Bevan Street  hit the line well last start and 1400m suits.

5.Soroc racing well and any rain well help.

9.Wordofmouth did well to win after being taken on. 1400m will suit too.