Home » Results » Saturday 5 May preview below

Saturday 5 May preview below

Update: 5.02 p.m.

We got $777 back for the Te Rapa quaddie

We have spent $1296 on a 0.50 quaddie at Morphetville $1561 returned. New Balance $5226 + $1561 = $6787

Opening balance $5745 +777-1296=$5226 closing balance.

Leg 1: 1. Santa Ana Lane
2. Keen Array
3. Casino Wizard
4. First Among Equals
5. I’m Wesley
6. Ferrando
7. Sprightly Lass
10. Desert Lashes
Leg 2: 1. Aloisia
2. Bring Me Roses
4. Think Bleue
5. Sopressa
6. Pleasuring
7. Savacool
9. Temple of Bel
11. Semari
14. Pure Scot
Leg 3: 1. Secret Agenda
3. Super Cash
4. Missrock
5. Dainty Tess
6. Quilista
7. Whispering Brook
8. Miss Gunpowder
9. Pedrena
10. Legless Veuve
14. Shoals
15. Catchy
16. Formality
Leg 4: 1. Savapinski
2. French Emotion
11. Hussterical

The Quaddie pool at Te is only $13 with under an hour to go, so I haven’t spent a big amount there. I’ll likely have a quaddie at Morphetville depending on how the track is playing and will post that by 5 p.m. Syndicate details here

Te Rapa  – Balance 6331- $586 ( Te Rapa ) = $5745

$294 on $1 units

Leg 1: 9. Santa Catarina
Leg 2: 2. O’Guy
4. Simply Optimistic
5. Socially Excited
12. Short Fuse
13. Toitoi
14. Power Dream
15. Alvins Dream
Leg 3: 2. Neeson
4. Poker Face
6. Startling Reminder
7. Georgethefifth
13. Aniceta
14. Our McKay
Leg 4: 1. Skyweka
2. Lucky Sweep
4. Big Mike
8. Sarabande
9. Stand Firm
11. My Pride And Joy
15. Incantesimo

 

$294 on 50% units

Leg 1: 2. Byzantine
6. Qiji Express
Leg 2: 2. O’Guy
4. Simply Optimistic
5. Socially Excited
12. Short Fuse
13. Toitoi
14. Power Dream
15. Alvins Dream
Leg 3: 2. Neeson
4. Poker Face
6. Startling Reminder
7. Georgethefifth
13. Aniceta
14. Our McKay
Leg 4: 1. Skyweka
2. Lucky Sweep
4. Big Mike
8. Sarabande
9. Stand Firm
11. My Pride And Joy
15. Incantesimo

Good morning,

Heads Up below – win a free months sub to Formpro, The Money Shot and I preview two races, have a rant plus more

I have previewed a few races from both Te Rapa and Riccarton. Speed maps, courtesy of Formpro Ratings, have been shown for some races. Heads Up will be posted by 5 p.m. along with an update.

 

 

 Bets for the quaddie syndicate will be updated by 2pm 

Bet of the Day Riccarton Race 1 2.Redefine $3.20 FF 1st $2.60 

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 7 12. Short Fuse $5.50 Ff  2nd $2.20 

Sneaky of the Day Te Rapa Race 9 8.Sarabande $11FF

Speed Map Special Te Rapa Race 6 9 Santa Catarina $3.20 FF 1st $2.60 

Other Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or better:

Riccarton Race 3 9.Euphoria $3.80 FF

Riccarton race 9 10.Dark Princess $3.50 FF

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is Canberra Option 2502 -7.5 $1.87 played 5 p.m. Saturday. Yes – won by 14 points.

Te Rapa

Rail true from 6m last week.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

1.It’s A Wonder 1st $4.20  is fit and jumps well. Ready to win.

Dangers:

3.No Change 2nd $1.60  jumps well also and looks the quinella. $3.80 

Race 2

4.Joey Jonz will be ready and he can jump well. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

9.White Diamond has more ability than these on the flat on a Dead track and won a recent hurdle trial.

Race 3

The speed map shows five runners right across the field so a good early pace and with wide runners pressing forward, an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Mihaul 1st $3  has been a dominant winner in both of his two wins since a long break. He is beach trained and is a happy horse so is likely to be even fitter and better for this. He will have to be too as this is a stronger field. Drawn 1 which should allow Innes to get a good run behind an even tempo about 3 back inner and get the gaps at the right time and be very hard to keep out despite the class rise. RP $3.00, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

13.Rosa Carolina  should be spot on for this and won well here fresh up. A slow track off an even pace is ideal for her with a weight advantage.

10.Lord Sibford did well fresh up in the slower inner ground to be close up. Tough galloper.

5.Selfie ran home hard for a close third last start on a  track he didn’t relish and Opie replaces the apprentice.

Other thoughts:

8.Sleeping Beauty  wasn’t suited by the firmish track fresh up. The improving track here may not either, especially against good sprinters on better tracks from a wider draw.

15.Maholo ran home in a strong last 600m last start and is a rough chance for First Fours.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

6.Justa Charlie 1st $2.80  won his only steeplechase race very decisively. Two good runs on the flat and has more pace than these.

Dangers:

5.Fair Script won this race last year and will set to repeat.

 

Race 5

The speed map shows an even tempo with The Shackler, Prince Mambo , Stacey Ann and Victory Drive out wide all going forward.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Francis Drake 3rd $2.50  looked sharp running home for second last start over 1600m. He loves it here and 59.5kgs may not stop him from winning. Rp $4

Dangers:

8.Zanyetta won easily last campaign stepping to 2100m from 1600m which she is doing here. Nicely weighted.

3.Balham won his trial very easily and will be further improved by that fresh up 6th. More ground suits now with 2kgs off.

9.Fawn  2nd $1.70 good win here last start and drawn to get all favours.

Race 6

The speed maps shows plenty of early speed ( 8 of the 12 runners ) setting it up for an off pace runner.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Santa Catarina 1st $2.60  has looked really good in her two starts and two trial wins. She will be better over more ground but with the strong tempo likely here, that will suit her nicely as her last 100m is the strongest. RP $3.00, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

6.Qiji Express did really well last Saturday 5th 3w in the open on an even tempo and kept closing for third. Drawn better and should get a nice tuck in behind the good speed and Baker/Forsman don’t back them up unless they are 100%.

2.Byzantine beat Santa Catarina last start but got a soft lead and was able to hold out her late charge. He won’t get that same easy time in front this time so $4.20 FF is too short fro a wide draw as well.

12.Shipshape is a nice looking filly and didn’t get a lot of room in the straight on debut but did enough to saay she can improve off that and 1100m will suit better.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

12.Short Fuse won easily at Matamata second up beating Mongolian Marshall 3rd. Last start she closed hard from 5th off an on-pace race rating and FR of 102. She also rated 104 when finishing on well for fifth at Ellerslie behind Melody belle, Astor and Gift Of Power, who would all be hot favourites for this race. She just needs to rate 99 in this with the 3kgs off and from the good draw, should get every chance to do that. RP $3.80, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Socially Excited weakened out when urged in his recent trial. But that was on March 27 and the Baker/Forsman team have won with other horses fresh up off similar trail runs. Drawn well. Was beaten 1.3l by Short Fuse here on a slow track last August.

2.O’Guy will appreciate the better surface and can bounce back.

13.Toitoi did well to win 3 wide in the open last start and drawn well.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

13.Aniceta won really well last start improving nicely off her fresh run. She will be further improved by that and the improved track will help as well. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers: 

6.Startling Reminder  won well last start and looked like he still had further improvement in him. Drawn well.

14.Our McKay 2nd $4.40  ran on strongly late last start and 1600m suits.

2.Neeson 1st $4.60 qu $42 ready to strike winning form on the better surface after a game second last start.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

8.Sarabande won well here third up beating the smart Wooden Edge and Excalibur. She ran home strongly for 4th fresh up and gets in on a nice weight of 54kgs. Looks to be an even tempo and they are likely to be angling wider to win. RP $5, $11 FF

Dangers:

1.Skyweka hit the line hard last start. Gets in nicely with 2kgs off and rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro ratings.

2.Lucky Sweep battled late in the heavy going. Better track suits much better and drawn well,. Has won here.

15.Incantesimo  did well last start when 3 wide in the open and was just a length away from the winner. Better track suits and has a light weight. Won well two back at Ellerslie.

Christchurch

Rail True from 4m last meeting here.

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.Redefine 1st $2.80- too good for these   looked well placed to win last start at Blenheim and won easily. He ran a top third to Mihaul who has gone on with it also. He is still improving and gets into his on a Slow track at a nice weight again. Maps to get every chance and Tina is a very good rider claiming 2kgs. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

9.Euphoria 3rd $1.40 won well here last start and the good tempo allowed her to do that. It looks like a decent tempo again so she can settle back, track into it and be very hard to keep out. An improving slow track is ideal. RP $3.40, $3.90 FF

Race 5

The speed maps shows good early speed from 2-5-10 and an even pace likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Peaceful blundered at the start and got back and was about 4 lengths behind winner Santa Catarina at the 600m but too 3 lengths off her to run second to her and she is very smart. There looks to be good speed to allow her to settle midfield and get over these. Baker/Forsman don’t travel them unless they are ready to win. RP $3.40, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

1.Khimar War  is a big strong 2yo who was a dominant winner here last start on a Dead track. It should get back to around a slow 7 by race day with the decent weather forecast and his actions says a slow track will be fine. Drawn to be a winning chance.

Race 7

The speed maps shows a moderate tempo likely suiting the first 4 runners

Confidence: 2/5

4.Son Of Zac 1st $3.40  almost won an R85 race here over 2500m on a Good track. Last start here over 2000m at WFA he as last as usual in the running, but once out and balanced about 250m out, he took 5 lengths off Who Dares Wins running 34.68. the fastest last 600m in the race. The slow track will suit him better as will the 2500m, plus he gets 4.5kgs off Who Dares Wins this time in the handicap. Small field and 2500m will help negate the moderate tempo. RP $2.60, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

3.Who Dares Wins looked like he had beaten Saint Emilion here last start at WFA. He rated a career best 113 then and should get a good run, but should be beaten by Son Of Zac.

 

Race 8

The speed maps shows La Fille En Jeu should get the lead again and with nothing to put pressure on her she can get her own way in front. She did set an even pace last start here averaging 11.8 200m to the 600m mark.

Confidence: 2/5

6.La Fille En Jeu  just ran them into the ground hare last start setting an even tempo and showing a real will to win to hold them out. She maps to get the lead again and despite getting up to 57kgs from 53kgs, and as long as the inside is still ok, she can kick on these and be hard to beat again. RP $4.00, $4.50 Ff

Dangers:

16.Zawhip won an R75 over 1400m here two starts back and did very well here last start over 1200m when 4 wide in the open and kept closing for third. She can slot in close to the pace and on 53kgs looks the best of the lighter weighted runners.

7.Johnny Jones looked to have plenty to offer here behind Zawhip but had hordes rump in front all the way to the line. $17 and $5 s FF is nice value.

4.Son Of Maher will appreciate the 1400m but maps to get caught wide unless he hunts to second outer.

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

10.Dark Princess closed like a good mare fresh up and she has strong form from her last campaign with a 3rd to Embellish and Asama Blue. 1600m suits ideally and Lisa Allpress knows her after a trial win in March. RP $3.00,

Dangers:

1.Amun Ra  drops back in class and is fitter after two runs back.

5.Madam Libre  is a strong mare and did well last campaign on slow and heavy tracks. If Dark Princess gets in trouble, she can win fresh up with Sam Wynne up.

8.Red  River Rock racing well and with a good run is in this.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!