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Wednesday selections below

Whangarei

Good morning,

A fine day is forecast with maybe a few showers which won’t effect this track much. There are a couple of runners I’ve rated 3/5 today who both look well placed to win. No quaddie bet for the syndicate today. James McDonald looks in for a good start today at Warwick Farm.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 6 1.Revered $3.20 after opening at $4.20 yesterday 3rd $15.60 

Value bet of the Day Race 7 13.Voler Pour Moi $5.50Ff 1st $5

Recommended quaddie for $10 for 50%:

Leg 1: 3. Legramor
4. Mystery Show
6. Carson River
13. Rocette Lady
14. Elettra
Leg 2: 1. Revered
Leg 3: 13. Voler Pour Moi
Leg 4: 1. Blanco Bay
8. Snitz Of Time
9. Top Actress
10. McCartney

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Weka Force 1st $4.30  drew wide in her trial and sped to the lead and won relishing her work in a good time compared to the other trials and she could have gone much quicker. Drawn 7 but has the speed to cross and get 2nd outer without too much effort after looking at all runners in trials etc and is out of the smart Spera so looks ready to win on debut. RP $2.80, $4 Ff

Dangers:

3.Speed And Expel did little and was a good lay. looked good leading all the way in his trial but ran it in 48.62 ( Not 48.10) the slowest of the 17 heats, and the quickest of them was 46.86, around ten lengths quicker, so  was made to look good by a weak bunch. Drawn well and has early speed and has been backed in from $3 to $2.50 but is just no value at that price.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Tavezbac looked good winning his last trial. Sweated up a bit before the start but responded well when asked to go 150m out with a strong stride. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Darci Palmer 2nd had his chance. on a better track will suit and may have been a bit flat after his good second on debut.

10.Kate Louise has the runs on the board with a strong closing second to the smart Astor last campaign.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

3.Scarfi  ran a game second to the smart Demonetization on debut. Had a couple of trials before then and none this time. Will be ready though. RP $4.00

Dangers:

6.Los Angeles started in the Group 2 Royal Stakes and Chris Gibbs thinks a lot of her, so from the good draw is a chance.

7.Snowbelle fitter now and better track will help.

5.Palamedes with a good run from the draw can be in this with 4kgs off.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Full Of Grace  1st $2.90  is a nice galloper and looked like she would definitely improve with that third fresh up. RP $3.60

Dangers:

3.Eurostar drawn well and likely to lead. If not taken on too much could pinch it.

14.Badea  nicely bred and ran on late on debut. Drawn well.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Legramor ran on late fresh up in a stronger R75 race rating 102 and won second up last campaign. She has rated up to 105 and needs to rate 102 to win this. Drawn ideally.

Dangers:

6.Carson River fitter and drawn the ace to get a winning run.

4.Mystery Show closed off nicely in her trial out wide and the harder they go the better her chances.

9.Rocette Lady 1st $32   will be ready to fire and is a nice mare who looked like she would be better with time.

14.Elletra 2nd Qu $213 looked good winning her trial at Te Teko with strong late strides under a hold.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

1.Revered 3rd $1.50  two starts back shared a good pace on the outer and after being headed rallied strongly for a close second. Was amongst runners last start and didn’t seem happy but ran a good third. Looks set to sit 2nd outer, although if the rail is ok, he would be better off in front on the rail, he can kick on these and be very hard to run down from the Nigel Tiley stable. RP $3.20

Dangers:

9.Birdie Blitz  was run down late last start. Fitter now and drawn to get a good run.

10.Cherry Lane  two nice runs and with a good run is in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

13.Voler Pour Moi 1st $5 and it worked out exactly to the script. – this is her day! Last year she ran home in above average sectionals. This campaign she stepped up to 2100m and was stiff when held up and weaved her way home for a good seventh. Then last start was snagged back again but they didn’t go hard enough and he ran home well for third beating Makdanife  who won impressively next up off a  better tempo. So third up over ground she will be at fever pitch. All she needs is a decent tempo which she will get with a few looking to lead and others caught wide pressing forward early. So Lammas from her nice draw should be able to slot in midfield or behind it, and from there, get on the back of something at the right time and if she produces her finishing bursts of last campaign, they will be all out to keep her from winning. RP $2.60, $5.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Red My Mind drawn well and fitter after a battling fresh run.

5.Archduchess needed her last run and back in class after dropping from 67 to 65 for this. More ground suits and drawn well.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.Snitz Of Time 2nd $1.40 qu $28 Double $72  last start hit the front well out and was sitting duck but just went down late. The side winkers go on which she needs and that strong form makes her the one to beat. RP $3

Dangers:

10.McCartney 1st $21 has shown enough on wetter tracks to say she will be a quick improver on a better surface from the ace draw with 1kg off.

1.Blanco Bay will be peaking now and has good from with Opie up.

9.Top Actress just needs the right run to test these. And the better surface suits.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!