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Saturday 19 May preview below

 

Update: 4.16 p.m.

We have spent $900 on a 50% quaddie at Morphetville Yes. $1616 returned

Balance is $4742 – $900 = $3842 + $1616 = $5458

Leg 1: 1. Lite’n in My Veins
9. Land of Plenty
14. Over Exposure
Leg 2: 1. Dainty Tess
3. Miss Gunpowder
6. Creativity
15. She’s So High
17. Leather’n’lace
Leg 3: 1. Vega Magic
2. Santa Ana Lane
3. Thronum
4. Secret Agenda
5. Viddora
6. Voodoo Lad
Leg 4: 1. Blue Tycoon
2. Artie Dee Two
4. Eschiele
5. Stragun
6. Beautiful Flyer
7. Bord de Gain
8. See Me Fly
9. Disgraceful
10. The Card Players
11. Vieira
12. Comfortable
13. Counter Spin
14. Rock Status
16. Boss Coni
17. Good Therapy
18. Port Vale
20. Military Forces
21. Via Balciano
22. Weather Channel
23. France’s Boy

Update: 12.52 p.m.

No NZ quaddie. We may have one in Oz which I’ll post by 4.30 p.m.

The Heads Up podcast is below  with the preview of two races on Saturday, the winner of the Formpro ratings 1 month sub, brickbats and bouquets, plus the Money Shot’s best bet for the weekend.

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is tonight with the Hurricanes -29.5 $1.87 No 

My Warriors bet is Combined Points being 39.5 or less for $1.87 Yes – just

Suggested multi is with Elle Mac 2nd  R8 at Addington at $1.55 $10 returns $54.30 Missed

 

Good morning,

Rain is expected at both NZ venues today. I may have a quaddie at one of them plus Australia, which I will post by 2pm and 4.30 p.m.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 1 2.Francis Drake $2.80 FF

Value bet of the day Awapuni Race 6 8.Sarabande $9 FF

Sneaky of the Day Morphettville Race 7 6.Voodoo Lad $10 Ff

Other recommended bets:

Te Rapa Race 4 6.Max $4 FF

Rosehill Race 1 6.Press Box $2.40 Ff

 

 

Saturday Morphettville

Race 7 6.26 p.m. NZ Time

Confidence: 3/5

6.Voodoo Lad ran second to Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket at Flemington with a 10.65 200m sectional from the 400 to the 200 and still ran the fastest last 200m of 11.39. He always goes very well fresh and has obviously been set for this by top trainer Darren Weir. He has drawn the ace and should settle midfield inner behind a strong tempo and he should get the split around 200m or further out or they may all move off the rail by this time of day and he has  that devastating 200 sprint that he use to bury these. RP $6, $10 FF

 

James McDonald’s mounts at Rosehill Saturday.

In summary, his best chance is Press Box in Race 1 at $2.40Ff. Best value ride is Race 2 Smartedge at $7 FF. Ebenos at $9.50FF and possibly more is worth an ew bet.

 

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 and is a good win bet.

6.Press Box strong 2yo from Chris Waller stable who looked good knuckling down over the last 150m to almost win on debut. Drawn ideally and James will give her every chance. $2.40 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 and a solid eachway bet

3.Smartedge Opened at $10 and into $7 now.

Ran on well fresh up in a fast race time after a slow start. Game second over 1400m last campaign. Maps to get a nice run about 6th or 7th behind an even speed and get every chance. She needs a Good track with her action and gets it. RP $4.80, $7 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 eachway chance.

2.Curdled ran on strongly fresh up for 3rd over 1100m fresh last campaign. In her recent trial was caught wide midfield and kept going nicely and will be improved by that. Maps to get back 8th inr but a decent tempo will help. RP $5.50, $6 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

1.Dia De Reyes maps to settle last and an even tempo likely. Needs luck from there. Placed 2nd fresh up over 1200m. RP $9, $11 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

8.Solo Mission got a good run last start when 3bk inner and got a rails run at the right time. Maps to get back and wide off a moderate tempo so can’t back with confidence. RP $6.00, $5 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

7.Ebenos has won fresh up over 1100m. Two nice trials, the last closing off strongly under a hold. Will get back and if they go hard enough, this powerful galloper can get over them late. Worth an eachway bet at nice odds especially if closers are winning. RP $6, $9.50 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.Up’n’Rolling won strongly in a fair speed rating last start and drawn to get a winning run. Up in class but has won over 1500m twice. Needs a good pace in front of him and should get that. $3.50FF is too short so if he gets out to $4.50 he’s worth a bet in an even race. RP $4.40, $3.50 Ff

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.I Am Serious is a good mare and had a good blowout in a fast run race fresh up. Drawn out but an even tempo likely. James just needs to get her in one off somewhere behind midfield and she could easily blow these away. RP $3.20, $3.50 FF

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 and worth an ew bet.

4.Viceroy will get back and rely on a decent tempo which there should be. He’s in good form with two solid seconds and if the inside is off, could upset. RP $8.50, $13 Ff

 

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.Francis Drake was very unlucky here last start when held up and ran home in the quickest last 600m, 400m and 200m. He loves it here and drops to a winning weight right at his peak. RP $1.80, $2.80 Ff

Dangers:

3.Youwatmore returns to a winning track for her. Too tough last week.

7.Cherry Bay  ran on nicely after being hampered in the straight. Fitter now.

Race 2

3.Mesmerize jumped well when second to The Big Opal at Wanganui over hurdles. Has had a pipe opener to get him ready for this.

Dangers:

4.Napoleon  jumps well also and has a fitness edge over most.

1.Cashel will be hard to run down.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.It’s A Wonder  won strongly last start here and jumped well. The rider said he didn’t want to leave it to a sprint home and put the pressure on well out and won easing down. So the 3200m with 65kgs looks ideal. Any rain will only help. RP $3, $2.70 Ff

Dangers:

1.Sea King has come back looking fit and ready to fire. Carries 71kgs but Myers will have him ready to lump it.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Southern Icon ran a good race last week fresh up when 3 wide in the open on a good pace and didn’t flinch holding on for fourth. Goes well here and maps to share the pace with Donna And Billy and be harder to beat . RP $4, $4 FF

Dangers:

8.Cinematic has been getting better and better. Only gets 2kgs off as rider has 52kg riding weight but still should be hard to keep out with that light weight.

4.Speechcraft ran home in the quickest last 600m, 400m and 200m here last start. Doubt over 1400m form but could be a sneaky with 3kgs off. $9 FF

Race 5

9.Perry Mason  won well over hurdles and looks better suited to the steeple chase obstacles. RP $2.50

Dangers:

1.Venerate  looks the obvious danger.

4.Point Proven  from the Myers stable will be right in it.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

4.Max looked good winning his two steeplechases last campaign and showed he had come back even better with a decisive win fresh up at Wanganui. He’s a very good jumper and Raymond Connors knows how to train them. RP $3.20, $4 FF

Dangers:

8.Chocolate Fish  will be improved by his second to Max. Worse off at the weights though.

2.The Big Opal won this last year and had his weight compressed by the stablemate and jumps well.

7.Justa Charlie  was too tough for many of these last start here and can only improve on a wetter track.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.Sistabeel closed off in strong sectionals here last start. Had a freshener which will suit and drawn to get the last run at them.

Dangers:

2.Padraig looked very good last campaign. Won in Australia and trialled well when ridden out for second and will have improved a lot with that.

3.Power O’Hata got all favours winning here but did it well. With a good run is right in this.

10. I Am Queen easy winner on debut but these are proven better three year olds.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

6.Odisha  looks nicely placed fresh up. She has won here fresh up and drawn to get all favours. RP $6, $11 FF

Dangers:

5.Capucine has won both of her races decisively and back here from a good draw looks ideal.

2.Stradivarius back in class and with a good run from the wide draw can be in it.

12.Amastar goes well here and drawn to get the right run.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Surrey is the best bred horse here all day and won like a good horse on debut. He has an ideal action for a heavy track and the step up in class won’t hurt. RP $4.50, $6

Dangers: 

8.Obsessive has raced much better with the blinkers on and is bred to win more races.

12.Elle Eye Are  won strongly from the Baker/Forsman stable last startand can step up.

15.Our McKay will be suited by the wide draw.

 

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

8.Sentimal Miss  put her head down and won her trial well handling the wet track nicely. Drawn the inaide with Lisa Allpress up. RP $5

Dangers:

7.Platinum Ripper ran on well last start and ready to improve.

2.Jon Wick won his trial well and blinkers go on.

Race 2

5.Belle Canto two strong thirds and fitter now. Scratched from Thursday for this and 1400m suits.

Dangers:

6.Sandy Small ready to fresh up after nice trials.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Paddy Bourke won very well two back then up in class and after getting blocked at a crucial time, battled in to fourth,. Back in class with a good tempo likely, he can get to the outside and charge at them late. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers:

4.Almo Street looked ready winning his trial and wide draw and good tempo will suit.

1.Sweepstake is a bit short at $2.70 if the inside is hard going.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.I’lltelluonething  has kept on stepping up and with 54kgs and the wide draw, Lisa should be able to put her where she likes and be the one to beat again. RP $4

Dangers:

4.Sylvester can bide his time off the pace this time and be right in this.

Race 5

 Confidence: 3/5

4.Diehard looked above average last campaign and resumed with a strong run for fifth. Bred to win a few races and looks stronger now from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $3.20, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Galway Lil ran home strongly from the rear last start and is a nice staying filly with a light weight.

1.The Great Guru  drops back in class with 4kgs off and will relish a heavy track.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

8.Sarabande ran an improver’s race fresh up then second up on the better track, began well, snagged back but they went hard up front and she got well back and was run off her feet. She closed off in strong last 600m, 400m and 200m here and the fastest last 800m in 46.31. She will appreciate the heavy ground, won third up last campaign and drawn to get a good run midfield off a decent tempo and be hard to beat. RP $4.50, $9 FF

Dangers:

7.Viktor Vegas looked a definite improver and is a nice horse.

4.Detentore has looked good winning against weaker fields. This is a bit tougher though and lacks race experience.

Race 7

The speed map shows it won’t be a fast run race with no obvious leader

Confidence: 2/5

5.Slimline ran second in this race last year on a heavy track to Ladies First. She got back amongst others last start here and battled on ok in an on pace race. This time she maps to land in the first four and with a moderate tempo will be in the right place to win. Trainer Gary Vile told us, ” She has come through that last run well and is ready to go. The inside draw and heavy 10 track concerns me but if it rained and became loose, I’d be much happier.”  RP $5.50, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Ruby Armani  could lead these with nothing else likely to want it. She can get a bit keen early so may be allowed to slide to the lead. She won well here off a moderate tempo sitting 3 wide in the open . The heavy track is a query but if she gets out wide into a better strip, that may help.

2.William Wallace is the up and comer. Negative is he will get back off a slow tempo but if they do go harder than expected, will be right in this. Plus he is up in class with a decent weight.

7.She’s Poppy will be ready to go fresh and is nicely weighted.

Race 8

A tough race. Confidence 1/5

8.Prodigal Son has the best FRs on a heavy track and gets 4kgs off.

3.Brahmarahma  won well last start and has a future.

7.Myrtle  won well last start and will be improved.

5.Sea Star  will relish a heavy track.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!