Thursday preview below

 

Update: with the soft and heavy tracks in Oz I’ll pass there.

Taranaki

Heel Be Jake won well for us yesterday after surviving a protest. I never felt as though he would get relegated as you could not confidently say Smiling Assassin would have beaten him so they are consistent.

It has come up a slow 9 and with the odd shower forecast it isn’t going to improve. No Good Confidence bets here of 3/5 or better but there may be later today which I will post by 3.00 p.m.

Bet of the day Race 1 7.Dancilla $2.70 1st $2.60 FF after being backed in early

Value bet of the day Race 5 1.Beltoy $5 FF 1st $6.70

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Dancilla Bolted in 1st $2.60  has been finding the line in a grinding fashion so the 2000m third up with the blinkers going on from the Baker/Forsman stable adds up to a filly hard to beat. Half sister to good stayer Decorah too. You would think they would hold the blinkers back until she had one run over a middle distance, so they must think she is ready. That was the clue. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

8.Ripping Princess can improve on her battling 4th on debut. May need one more but Fraser Auret would not start her over 2000m second up unless she thought she was a good stayer and fit enough.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Kingsgrave has the best FR on a slow to heavy track when a 3.5L 6th in an R85 race at Te Rapa. Fresh up at Wanganui he may well have won if he had not ran into a wall of horse out wide. He finished with a bit in hand. Then he trialled recently and eased back but was doing some powerful work late. He’s fit now and with a good ride from the wide barrier, he can beat these. He actually maps to get on the pace and from there will be nicely placed. RP $4, $5.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Beau Jeu  almost got up fresh up in the fastest time of the day by far. The track did get worse as the day went on though and he gallops as though he will excel over more ground. A few chances here.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Rockoneve  found the line strongly last start against the hot favourite. She gallops like she needs 1600m on a slow track and gets that third up with 2kgs coming off. RP $3.40, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Blue Rata Anna  ran a game second here two back and was ok at Trentham. Back here she will be harder.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Ifnot Wainot ran a game second on debut at Ellerslie after being slow away. In his recent trial he began first, galloped well to the 200 and came hard late. Looks stronger and drawn the inside with 4kgs off. RP $3.50

Dangers:

3.Our Milo has won a few trials and in his last one sweated up quite a bit and ran a close second. Drawn wide with good speed inside him, so that makes it harder over 1100m.

9.Arabica  ran home well in her trial – her action says slow track ok but heavy may be too tough.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Beltoy 1st $6.70 rated FR 97 on a heavy track at Awapuni and in her recent trial soon led and relished her work to the turn. She was given a reminder 100m out and put her head down and went to the line to win easily. She looks stronger now and maps to lead or be second outer and has been set for this Pearl Bonus race. RP $3.80, $5 FF

Dangers:

3.Keltic Rockstar ran home well from off the pace on debut. Drawn better and is the main danger.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

6.The Heiress two strong placings last campaign and is ready to fire fresh from the Baker/Forsman stable after two nice trials. RP $4

Dangers:

7.Sky Hi Rahtwo 1st $4  ready to strike now third up after a strong second last start.

8.Ali Magee will be ready after a short break.

1.Itsabelta fitter now and drawn to get a good run.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

4.Alvin’s Dream ran a game third here to Power O’Hata who went on with it. Drawn ideally and 1400m suits. RP $4.80

Dangers:

6.Turncoat 1st $3.40  ready after two runs and gets 4kgs off.

2.Keep It Savvy  is ready to fire fresh up and will relish the ground.

10.Chester Carlson fitter now and gets 4kgs off.