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Sunday Specials below

Good morning,

There look to be some good bets today in all three codes detailed below. Waimate have two well weighted selections that look ready to win on the Slow to heavy track. I did some of the more notable sectionals at Nelson and found four well placed runners. And at the Manukau dogs, there are fours dogs drawn to get every chance to win.

Bet of the Day Nelson Trots Race 7 10.Kensington Kate $3.50 FF 1st $4 

Value bet of the Day Waimate Race 5 5.Madam Libre $12 and $3.80 Ff Didn’t fire

Speed map Special Manuakau Greyhounds Race 10 2.Ring The Bell $3.10 FF 1st $3 

 

Waimate

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

9.Saber has the best FR on a slow to heavy track here of 109.2 when second to Scapolo at Blenheim recently. This time he maps to get a good run outside Ballybay. He settled well last start taking a sit. He only gets 1 kg off as his riding weight which is 53kgs unless he jumps in the sweat box all morning. The stablemate, Jazzman has been scratched which could indicate confidence in the camp.RP $2.80, $4.20 FF  

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

5.Madam Libre  drops back in class and last campaign she struck winning form at the same time fourth up winning two races back to back over 1600m on heavy tracks. Interestingly, the nose band goes on and Conquistador, who won the first race at Te Rapa yesterday, also had it on the first time. She gets 4kgs off with Gee Saejorhor on and she has the second best rating here on a wet track. There is not a lot of speed and she maps to be in the first four and from there, is a good value to upset. RP $5, $12 FF and $3.80 FF

Nelson trots

I’ve gone through the first day replays and found these for today.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Bettor Trenz 1st $7.90  came from well back on the pegs for a strong finishing 5th in 28.15. Drawn to get a closer run and be harder to keep out.  RP $4, $4.50 Ff

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

5.Chief Of Staff 1st $4 in the false start of this race on Friday got away well and settled 6th inner when the race was stopped. In the actual race, she began well and seemed to get squeezed up and broke and settled well off the leaders. She made ground to the turn and still kept coming to run fourth in 29.77. She is a very nice looking trotter with a future so with a clean beginning again, away from the inside, she can be handier or even work to the lead and looks very hard to beat. RP $2.50, $4.20

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

10.Kensington Kate 1st $4  on Friday got shuffled back and had to work hard in the open to get handy on the turn and kept finding for a strong second in the second fastest  speed rating all day ( allowing for the standing start) so it was probably the best run all day. Drawn wide but begins ok and with a decent run in the same grade against similar horses, where she begins well off  a stand, can go one better against a very similar field as Friday.RP $2.60, $3.50 FF

Race 11

Confidence: 2/5

9.Feel The Money won in the fastest 2400m time on Friday and was strong through the line. In the same grade here from a wide draw. Strikes an in form field but most are up in class from Friday and it will just need a good drive from Matt Anderson, who is a good driver, to just snag back and time his run to get into it 200m out and she can win again. RP $3.80, $5 FF

Manukau Greyhounds

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

1.Hot Mayhem has the fastest adjusted time here in the last 90 days. She maps to get a nice run third inner behind 4 and 5 and with her powerful finish in the straight, she can get over the two in front. RP $2.80, $5 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Deception Diva 3rd on Monday drew box 3 and pinged to the lead and won strongly in 31.25 on a wet track beating Talkabout Ziggy. The C4/5 race later in the day had no official time but I got it at 31.14, just 2 lengths slower. If she jumps like that again from box 1, she will lead and should win. RP $4, $7 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

8.Just One Smile 1st $1.70  has been picking the jump better and winning in fast ratings. Drawn 8 which is ideal and the 5 and 6 dog especially, veer left early and the 7 dog is generally slower away and runs true. Meanwhile, Just One  Smile, who has won 20 sprints, could put a decent smile on our faces as she zips round the outer and leads and wins. RP $1.70, $1.85

Race 10

Confidence:

Confidence: 4/5

2.Ring The Bell 1st $3  was back to his best last Monday when winning in the fastest heat by a 6 length better time than Dusty Gambler. The track was a bit slower that day too and on a quicker track, he will be even better suited. Won this well last year and he maps to get out and lead on the rail and from there the maths says he wins, especially as he will be improved by that as well. RP $1.80, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

8.Dusty Gambler will need to avoid trouble at all costs from box 8 which is unlikely and that leaves Ring The Bell in the lead, out of trouble.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!