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Wednesday preview below

Good morning,

This Saturday at Tauranga races I will be doing the selecting and betting for the Punters Club. It will be on races 3 to 7 and I thought I would give subscribers the chance to get involved again.  You can deposit a minimum of $10 into TAB account 69448 ( ( Name is N Davis) by midnight Friday or do a bank transfer into  ANZ Account number 01-0677-0114026-01  ( N Davis) please don’t use the Business account to deposit into.

I’ll be doing my homework thoroughly and will post the bets on this site before the race so you can keep track of how we are going.

Counties

The track is a heavy 11 and with rain falling with more to follow, it is going to make it hard going, not only for horses, but also for punters.

Bet of the day Race 3 6.Midnight Runner $4.60 FF 1st $4

Value bet of the Day Race 6 10.Leica Warrior $9.50 FF 3rd $2

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

1.The Irish Bounty ran a distant third at Avondale in a bog and Medini, the second horse, won last Sunday. Fitter now and looks the one to beat.

Dangers:

2.Bay Rocker ran 2nd in a bog last campaign and fitter now.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Botti 1st $1.30  has won both of his trials well. His action suggests he needs a slow or better track to back with confidence though.

3.Soleil Dore won her trial well sharing the pace, leading and holding on well handling the heavy ground well.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

6.Midnight Runner 1st $4  tidy 7th in a stronger 3yo race fresh up when wide all the way with a Formpro Rating of 97 which was just 1 below his career best of 98.  He won here fresh on a heavy track last year on a heavy 10 track with an ideal action to handle a bog. With 3kgs off here with Tayla Wenn on board where he maps to lead and should be able to angle to the best part of the track, wherever that may be, and will be very hard to run down. RP $2.50, $5.20 FF

Dangers:

5.Inca Warrior 2nd  qu $1.40  game second last start and very fit now.

3.Bravos 3rd $1.80 tri $57  won wide out in the better going here last start in the slowest of the three 1200m races on a slow 9 track. His action suggests slow or better suits better as well.

1.Deluxe Edition strikes a weak field fresh up with 3kgs off.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

9.Theonlyway  was hard held in his trial for third. Ready to fire on debut from the Tiley stable with in-form Jonathan Riddell on board.

6.I Walk Alone has won both his trials well. The last leading all the way and relishing the he4avy going. Ready to win on debut.

1.Tryfan just beaten here on a heavy 10 track. Drawn wide which may be a bonus.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Repo Bay didn’t take advantage of a good draw last start in a strong field and battled away over 1600m on a rack that was throwing back a lot of sand. He won here over 1600m on a very heavy track. This is a weaker field and back to 1400m is ideal plus he has 2kgs off this time. Trainer said, ” He copped 3 or 4 clods of dirt with sand at Te Rapa and the next day his eyes were all swollen up. He’s my best of the day.” RP $3.00 $4.60 Ff

Dangers:

1.Ventura won well here on a very heavy track last year. Plugged last start. Back in class but giving Repo Bay 4kgs.

4.Lupelani 1st $3.90 won easily in a good speed rating last start fresh up. Up in weight for this and second up and has been unplaced in her three starts here on heavy tracks.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Leica Warrior 3rd $2  ran a game second here two starts back and went ok last start. He gets 2kgs off with Jasmine back on him and that’s a nice weight advantage over his main rivals on a bog. RP $4.50, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Pythagoras won well here in April on a bog and back in class for this.

3.Tpical  has won his last two but his last was in a slower time than the maiden race. This is harder and gives 6kgs to Leica Warrior.

2.Switch In Time 1st $3.40  stepped up in class last start and just won in the slowest of the three races over 1360m. Gives Leica Warrior 6kgs.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race.

3.Country Bumpkin  2nd $1.90 qu $26   looks like he will handle a bog well.

Dangers:

9.Plazabeel  placed on a bog here.

4.Mr Big 1st $9 ran on well last start and fitter now.

6.Gutsy Gussie ran a nice sixth on debut and fitter.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!