Home » Results » Saturday June 23 preview below

Saturday June 23 preview below

Update:

Update: Sorry, no payout this time. Thanks for joining in.

Update: We have the closing balance of $1160 on 1.Underthemoonlight at $3.10 FF to return $3,600 and get our money back if she wins.

Race 6

$550 win 5.Good Vibes at $12 Ff and $290 at $4 Ff

Race 5

3.Rodrico $3k win at $3.70 FF to return $11,100 Bugger! Thought we had it on the turn. Balance $2,000

Race 4 10.Century Miss $700 at $7.50 FF

Race 3 $600win Padraig $4.50 FF Apologies for lateness of post. He held on well. New Balance $5700 and opening balance was $3,600.

Race 2

9.Justacanta looks very well and rearing to go.

Race 1 Tauranga

6.Blanco Belle looks fit enough to win and relaxed.

Update: 8.12 a.m.

We have $1590 from Subscribers for the Tauranga Punters Club contribution to the on- course pool. I’ll be posting updates just before races 3 and 7 with the bets and races 1 and 2 about 3 minutes with my thoughts on how horses look etc. No quaddie for the syndicate today, but we may have a go at the $25,000 Terminating Pick 6 tomorrow at Blenheim trots.

RM 50
DA 7
MN 3
? 10
CandL 2
KJ 3
Diesel 10
DW 12
Mo 1
RWAN 7
IG 10
AP 5
JM 3
PJP 6
NeilD 30

Heads Up Below

We preview two big races from Tauranga, draw the lucky punter who won the 2 months free sub and subject you to some controlled violence

 This Saturday at Tauranga races I will be doing the selecting and betting for the Punters Club. It will be on races 3 to 7 and I thought I would give subscribers the chance to get involved again.  You can deposit a minimum of $10 into TAB account 69448 ( ( Name is N Davis) by midnight Friday or do a bank transfer into  ANZ Account number 01-0677-0114026-01  ( N Davis) please don’t use the Business account to deposit into.


Tauranga

Update: 1.30 p.m:

I walked the track Friday morning and the inside 4 metres seems slightly better than further out. It was a heavy 10 and likely to stay around there with not a lot of warmth in the air.

 Track manager Craig Settle said, ” I’ve just done the penetrometer reading and it has come back to a heavy 10. I expect it to be around a 1.15 for 1200m track ( ran 1.17 on a heavy loose track here last year after heavy rain the day before ) The rail is true again.”

The forecast looks rain free right through to Sunday. I’ll be walking the track on Friday afternoon and will report back with my thoughts in the Heads Up vidcast by 5 p.m.

Recommended Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or better are:

Bet of the Day Tauranga Race 1 6.Blanco Belle $2.40 FF Updated about 3 minutes before the race 2nd 

Value bet of the Day Tauranga Race 5 3.Rodrico $4.50 FF Friday, into $4 now. 2nd

Speed map special Tauranga Race 7 1.Underthemoonlight $2.90 FF

Sneaky of the Day Race 8 8. Imblaze $5.50 Ff

Race 1

The speed map shows

Confidence: 3/5

6.Blanco Belle ran second twice to the very smart Dijon Bleu last campaign. She won her recent trial well at Waipa and gets 3kgs off. She gets in on 52.5kgs which will make her very hard to peg back where she should settle near the pace. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Socially Excited should be on the pace and very fit now. Gives Belle 5 kgs and a start though. Co-Trainer Andrew Forsman made him his best chance all day. ” Well suited against his own age group and ready to win,” he said.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Perfect Harmonee looked very fit and well before the start at Wanganui and was just too good. Drawn to get a similar soft lead and with the inside being ok, he will prove hard to run down with Lisa Allpress up. RP $3.30, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

9.Justacanta  with the small field now will be close enough to use his strong finish.

6.Temple Tiger  maps to get a good trail and with the light weight, can hold on for a place.

4.Sleeping Beauty 1st $3.80  is a $3 FF favourite but is too short from a wide draw with a 4kg claimer up.

 

Race 3

The speed map shows there should be good early speed with Valante and Waipipi Lad ( Blinkers on) likely to share it and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Padraig 1st $5.20  wasn’t suited fresh up in a strong 3yo race over 1200m. He improved a fair bit though as he won his trial very impressively at Waipa relishing his work right handed on the heavy track. He won well at Bendigo last campaign over 1300m. The 1600m looks ideal for him and he maps to get back on the outer away which will suit as he is a big fella that needs plenty of room. From there, he can track into it and be hard to keep out. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Nailed It found the line well late last week and gets 3kgs off this time. Should get a good run and goes well here. Holding track is a query though.

5.Worthhisweightingold goes well fresh and Lisa Allpress jumps on.

4.Grand Rio may have been unsuited by the clods of sand and dirt coming back at him last start.aps to trail and Matt Cameron suits him.

 

 

Race 4

The speed map shows early speed inside and out with Cool Cassie likely to try the same leading tactics as last start when it worked well.

Confidence: 1/5 with a few chances.

10.Century Miss won her maiden here on a similar heavy 11 holding track as a 3yo filly. Then two starts later won strongly at Ellerslie on a similar holding track in an R75 race ridden by Michael Coleman. She has had two runs back now and her last start was quite good as she was 5th outer in a race that suited the leaders and she battled on well for fifth over 1600m on better ground that didn’t suit as much as this. Back right handed on a track and surface she has won on, looks ideal. She has the best FR on a heavy track and is weighted to win. Michael Coleman replaces the apprentices in her first two runs and she will be ready to win. RP $4.00

Dangers:

5.Suliman 1st $3 won well with a good run on the pace and he is a good horse. He seems the type who prefers a loose track or a better track, so a the improving heavy 10 track should suit ideally.

3.Whoppers won on a deep bog at Avondale over 2200m then ran a  strong second last Sunday over 1580m after that 25 day break. He would have improved with that as well and Lisa Allpress jumps on.

3.Princess El Jay ran an improver’s race last start at Te Rapa in a stronger R85 field. Fitter for this but her best form is on better surfaces.

2.El Disparo won here last year in April on a heavy 11 track bolting in after he had two runs over ground. With just one run over 1600m fresh up where he faded out means he is more of a place chance than  a realistic winning chance. Maybe one to watch in the birdcage to see just how fit he is.

Race 5

The speed map shows Rodrico and Joe Cargo should share a moderate tempo which will suit runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Rodrico 2nd $1.40 looked good winning two starts back and was confidently expected to win but ran a fair third with that sand kicking back in his face. He ran a top second in the Queensland Derby before going to HK where he wasn’t happy in that environment. He should get a good run on the pace and with the track not being too holding, he gets a significant 5.5kgs off Pacorus who will have to work harder as well from the wide draw. RP $2.80, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Pacorus won this last year giving 5.5kgs to Doyouknowwhoiam. Only gives away 2.5 kgs this time. Forgive that last run on a very sandy track. Goes well here.

2.Doiknowyou won well last start but giving 3kgs to a smart horse that will be in front of him on the turn.

4.Roger That  should get the right run near the pace and be a place chance from there.

Race 6

The speed map shows speed out wide and in the middle with an even pace likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Good Vibes as rated an FR of 104 and 102 when winning and R75 at Pukekohe. Two starts back she rated 99 in a stronger R70 race at Matamata on a heavy track. So with the 4kg claim and the good run likely, she just needs to rate close to 99 to win this and has won here and ran second in this race last year. RP $6, $12 FF

Dangers:

6.Loch Ness rates on top after weight adjustments  in the Formpro Ratings with the 2kgs off. Drawn to get a good run.

12.Falkirk Lass 3rd $3.20  also drawn to get all favours and weighted to be in it.

1.Rene ran a good second to Blanco Belle in her recent trial, so if she wins or go close, then that doers frank her run.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows good speed right across so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Underthemoonlight  is a tough mare with a will to win. She just beat Deals In Heels last start and meets her 6kgs better off and would improve more than Deals In Heals as well, so she has her covered. She beat New York Minute decisively on a very heavy loose track here last year so has her covered you would think as it will be a truly run race with Billie setting the pace. She is better on a Heavy 10 or better and maps to get an ideal run one off about 5th off the even tempo. So at WFA, where she would be giving 3kgs at least to these, she does look perfectly placed. RP $2.00, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

3.New York Minute 1st $2.70   1.32 was the time in this last year and they are likely to run around 1.28 today, was an impressive winner last start fresh up. She was beaten easily by Underthemoonlight in this last year and on a better heavy track, that can only suit Underthemoonlight more, so unless there is a severe leader bias, I’m confident she will  get run down by her.

2.Tomelilla gives it everything when she races. Drawn to follow New York Minute 3 back on the rail and should get every chance to fight on for third or second.

4.Deals In Heals meets Underthemoonlight 6kgs worse off so hard to see her turning the tables and will have to do more work.

Race 8

The speed map shows Imblaze a good chance of leading and a moderate tempo likely

Confidence: 2/5

8.Imblaze is one tough mare with 3 wins from 3 wins and 2 placings on slow and heavy tracks. She maps to get the lead or be outside it and with the 3kgs off, and if the inside is still ok, she should prove hard to run down. RP $4, $5.50

Dangers:

4.Call Me Bob  was a decisive winner last start and should get every chance with Sam Collett up from the in-form Tiley stable.

1.Kensington is fitter now and will go better now on a better heavy track. He’s a nice horse.

2.No Need fitter now and drawn to get every chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!