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Saturday June 30 preview below

 

Update:

For those in the quaddie syndicate our bank is now $3922 which is almost exactly half of the original pool of $7850. I’ve been through the $25k Terminating Pick 6 tomorrow at the Auckland dogs and it does look like it could be struck by only one 10% ticket so I may spend some of that $3922 on that and then payout whatever is left regardless of whether we strike it or not. I’ll post either way by 2 p.m. tomorrow, after I’ve done my homework etc.

Update: 2.54pm No Ozzie quaddie

We have spent $562 on an 80% turbo quaddie Yes $2954 returned – shame Real Fun ( paying $8388 )  didn’t get the bob in though! Opening balance $1530-562+2954= $3922 Closing balance

Leg 1: 1. Ohthoserussians
2. Stevie’s Surprise
3. Deucalion
5. Valerius
7. Glimpse
8. Pop Diva
10. Akoya Pearl
11. Foiling
12. The White Queen
Leg 2: 1. Southern Icon
2. Fire Jet
3. Spider
4. Rikki Tikki Tavi
6. Vinevale
7. Rockabyebaby
Leg 3: 5. Red Sierra
Leg 4: 1. Corporate Raider
2. Not Usual Prince
3. Poker Face
4. Ohceedee
5. Kirkintilloch
6. O’Guy
7. Owen Patrick
8. Red My Mind
9. Avec Moi
10. Take It Out
12. Angeline
13. Excelsior Island
14. Real Fun

 

 

Heads Up below with the Money Shot and I previewing and reviewing races, plus a chance to win two $10 units in next week’s Terminating Pick 6 syndicate.

 

Saturday

Good morning,

I’ve sorted out three Good Confidence bets for Ruakaka and one for Hastings. If you are in the Quaddie Syndicate where we have $1530, I may have a quaddie today which I will post by 3 p.m. for NZ in the $25k Bonus Turbo quaddie or Australia by 4.30 p.m.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the Day Ruakaka Race 5 4.Marlini $2.30 FF 3rd 

Value Bet of the Day Ruakaka Race 3 3.The Helix $4 FF 4th after getting every chance

Speed Map Special Ruakaka Race 6 6.Marzemino $2.10 FF

Sneaky of the Day Hastings Race 9 5.Red Sierra $5.50 FF 1st $5.50 and ridden to the script.

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is on Sunday morning. Stormers to beat Jaguares at $3 Head to head or $2 with a 7.5 points start.

Hastings

Our Track Walker said the part outside where the hurdlers will be racing is quite a bit better than that area. So look for them to get off the fence well out before the turn to get there. So it is likely to suit runners drawn out and that can track into into.

Pass on the minor jumping races – just too open and add in the risk of jumping, save your money for other races.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Monarch Chimes  looks well placed here on the minimum after his very good runs in Australia. He’s been ticking over nicely on the flat and in a hurdle trial, so looks very well placed.  RP $3.50, $3.80

Dangers:

6.No Change  bolted in here two starts ago and ran a good race on the flat. He can beat Monarch Chimes if he makes a mistake, which he can do.

7.Pukeake Sam at $51 FF is an u7opset chance. He just didn’t like Awapuni and he is better than that.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

3.Delegate ran a strong second in an R75 race two starts back and battled in a real bog last start. very fit and with a good run can upset.

Dangers:

14.Firefly looked like she could go on and win a few races after her strong win last campaign. Good third last start and Scott Wenn  will give her every chance. A heavy puggy track won’t suit her though.

2.Centre Attention  upset last start and being near the pace can often be an advantage in these races.

Race 5

The speed map shows

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race

6.Mangaroa Flo Jo is the one that maps to get back and get to the better going out wider. So with Lisa Allpress on, she can upset these.

Dangers:

2.Woodsman if he can begin cleanly, can lead and if he got his own way, angle to the best ground and be hard to run down.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Max was a dominant winner two starts back at Te Rapa then ran on ok in the hurdles at Awapuni. He jumps well and still gets in only 2kgs over the minimum. Top rider and trainer combination and does look the one to beat. RP $2.80, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

8.Justa Charlie was run down late by Max at Te Rapa then was kept up to the mark with a run on the flat last start.

1.Wise Men Say is a place chance as he is better suited to longer races but the harder they, the better his chances.

10.Shamal ran a strong third behind two very good jumpers at Trentham. Peaking nicely for this fourth up.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

10.Akoya Pearl put in a good run here two starts back and was only fair last start right handed. Back here left handed, with Lisa Allpress up, she could surprise. RP $6, $12.50 FF

Dangers:

12.The White Queen  trialed well and is ready to fire fresh up.

1.Ohthoserussians fitter third up and good third last start.

2.Stevie’s Surprise  with a good ride with the 3kgs off can upset.

Race 9

The speed map shows a few who are likely to go forward early and ensure an even tempo. It should set up nicely for a swooper.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Red Sierra looks ideally placed here. She charged home down the outer to win easing down at Wanganui fresh up, then was putting in some strong late strides in a harder field last start. She drops to 53kgs, maps to get back off an even tempo, and get out wide to the better part of the track. She also rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. RP $3.00, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

7.Decades  goes well fresh and has won here. Nice trial but drawn in close which may not be the place to be.

9.Turncoat won well last start band with the 4kgs off, has to be a chance.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

1.Two Thirty did very well last start when caught 3 wide on a decent tempo and still stuck on for fourth. He has drawn wide here but that may well be the place to be this time of day. Gets 2kgs off and has won on very heavy tracks. RP $5, $10 FF

Dangers:

3.Field Of Fire gets in well with 4kgs off. If the inside is ok, is right in this.

4.Lincoln Bay also get in well with the 4kgs off and rates equally on top.

13.New Crown  very good run here two starts back.

Ruakaka

The rail is out 2m from True here two weeks ago and should play evenly again.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

11.Times Time looked good pinging the gates in her trial and leading. She got her head down nicely and relaxed well, which allowed her to kick on them and win easily in a nice time comparison.Looks to have the early speed to cross and get 2nd outer or even 3 wide on the pace and be hard to keep out. RP $4.00, $4.50 FF

Dangers: 

10.Hapi Ella has race experience and a good draw in its favour.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

3.Copper Mine looked good winning his recent trial when flying out of the gates to lead and won with plenty in hand. On debut the trainer said he was not happy with her on the firm ground before the race and she weakened out. So here on a track with cushion, he looks well placed from the inside draw. RP $3, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

8.Pink Graffiti tried hard fresh up and just went down. better track will suit.

10.Clara drawn to get every chance.

 

Race 3

The speed map shows The Helix should settle about 7th or 8th and get his chance from there.

Confidence: 4/5

3.The Helix last start ran home from last in 34.72, off the moderate tempo, which was the fastest maiden sectional all day. The step to 1600m looks ideal third up and he should have too much turn of foot for main dangers Alesund and Sure He Can. Trainer Cody Cole told us, ” He has eaten up really well and has done everything right since his last run here. Both riders in his last two starts have been impressed with him and say he can go on and win races.” RP $1.80, $4 FF which is excellent value

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

6.Scarfi good run last start and drawn to get every chance again. RP $3.50, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

5.Birdie Blitz looks the obvious danger after three strong seconds.

13.Marbles  ran on well here last start so 1600m will suit now.

Race 5

The speed map shows Merlini to lead with Resurrect 2nd outer and a moderate tempo from there.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Merlini  does look well placed here. He rated an FR of 14 then 106 at his last two starts in sytronger fields. But what impressed was his last trial where he settled well in the lead and wasn’t pushed to just get run down by closers in the better part of the track. He has a lot of upside and Tony Pike has gone with the 2kg claimer from the strong 2kg claimer Jordan Nason. From the inside draw he should be able to lead with a clean beginning and Resurrect should be content to sit 2nd outer. From there, I can’t see any midrace pressure, so he will get every chance to kick on these and be too good. RP $1.70, $2.30 FF

Danger: 

5.Not Usual Heart won well from the back fresh up in a below average speed rating. Likley to be a few lengths off Merlini on the turn and the tempo ( 11.91 200m sectionals to the 600m mark)  is unlikely to be as fast as her last start here. So I can see her racing into 2nd or 3rd.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5 

6.Marzemino looked good winning last start when leading and won with plenty in hand. She trialed just as well when leading all the way recently. Drawn to lead and should, then kick on these and be very hard to run down with the lightest weight. RP $2.00, $2.10 FF

5.Garland  ran home well with not a lot of room last start here. Drawn 1 and if she can settle closer, is a place chance.

Race 7

The speed map shows the early speed from the inside four runners and an even tempo likely once they settle, suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Rikki Tikki Tavi loomed to win here last start but was oufinished late over 1200m. That was her first run for 63 days so will be fitter for this. She won here over 1400m for her maiden win. She maps to settle about 6th with an even pace up front and from there, looks set to win now. RP $3.50, $3.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Fire Jet meets Rikki 3kgs worse off than last time they met here but is very fit, and with an even tempo, that will help in the last 100 metres.

1.Southern Icon dwelt at the start and had to use petrol to lead and was gone in the Slow going well out. If he begins better from the inside draw, he can hunt through and lead and be harder to beat.

7.Rockabyebaby good fresh up run and has won three times over the distance on this course. Wide draw makes it tricky though.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

2.Not Usual Prince in strong form and should get every chance from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $4.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

7.Owen Patrick drawn to get all favours and better than last start.

9.Avec Moi nicely drawn to get all favours with 2kgs off.

1.Coprporate Raider  strong third here last start.Drawn better.

Race 9

The speed map shows early speed from five runners and with runners likely to be caught wide, that should ensure an even tempo suiting all horses.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Jake The Muss always looked like he would be a stronger horse as a four year old. He is best suited when ridden cold and would have won last start here with a clear run. So back up to a middle distance, where the tempo looks good enough for him to get over them, he looks a solid eachway chance. RP $, $5 FF

Dangers:

2.Major Tom  won well here last start and more ground will suit with 2kgs off.

4.Switch In Time has won his last three well. Steps up in distance and class on a better track but has Nigel Tiley and Matt Cameron to help him overcome that

12.Where Are You  is ready to strike after a strong third last start. More ground will suit.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!