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Saturday 7 July preview below

 

Update 12.20 p.m.

The Pick 6 updates are here

Heads Up Below with the Money Shot and I previewing the two main races from Saturday, and you win $20 in the Pick 6 syndicate, plus more

 

Good morning,

It is a tricky day of punting, so tread carefully. The Pick 6 syndicate is closed with around $7,000 in it. I’ll post the bet, if there is one, by 2.45 so I can see how the tracks are playing. I’ll post the full list of unit holders by 1 p.m.

Good luck,

Neil

 

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 3 6.Dougie $3.60 FF Rated Price $3 1st $3.20

Value bet of the day  Flemington Race 5 6.Goldifox $3.70 FF Rated price $2.50 3rd

Sneaky of the day Awapuni Race 8 12.Dark Princess $6 FF Friday

Flemington

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

6.Goldifox last start drew wide and snagged back to last. They went the slowest up front off all the 1400m races. From the 800m to the 400m they ran 22.23 and the rider was caught mapping and lost a couple of lengths. But once out and balanced, closed off hard to almost beat the winner and race rival, Good’n’fast. Her closing sectionals, in context with better class races, showed the 1600m is going to be ideal for her now and she relaxes well and her action suggests she will relish 1600m. Drawn to get a better run about midfield and Parnham’s job is to get her out near the turn and as long as he is winding up 300m out, she is going to be very hard to keep out. RP $2.50, $3.80 FF

Te Rapa

Race 1

The speed map shows five runners going forward early and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Justacanta rated a career best FR of 107 last start and ran on well off a race that suited on pace runners. But he looked ready to run the race of his life at Tauranga. He maps to get back but a better tempo this time will allow him to get over these with the 54kgs. The negative is if the sand is still affecting off pace runners. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Ambitious Warrior 1st $4.30  should get a good run and be right in it.

9.Seconds Out ran a big race fresh up. Drawn to get a good run and be an upset chance.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Cyber Attack  1st $2.20  ran a game second in a stronger field last start. Drawn to get a good run and very fit now. RP $2.50, $2 FF

Dangers:

5.Lady Lira  good win in a weak field last start when getting a good run in the better ground. Drawn to be the main danger.

Race 3

The speed map shows Admiral likely to lead but five other runners will be looking to get handy, so an even tempo

Confidence: 3/5

6.Dougie 1st $3.20  rated a career best FR of 109 last start alongside Vinevale who won again in the Open Handicap at Ruakaka. Third horse Rockabyebaby ran third and also ran a very game third behind Vinevale as well. Drawn to snag back and settle last off the even tempo and Chris Johnson will get him going at the right time and third up and fitter, he looks well placed. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

4.Waipipi Lad was beaten by a good horse in Padraig last start when the blinkers went on.

Race 4

The speed map shows

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

2.L’Acclamation  looked good running second to subsequent winner Padraig in her trial. Drawn the inside and should get a good run. RP $$5, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Hot Saki 2nd $2 has the blinkers going on and with Chris Johnson up, she could lead these a merry chase.

7.Icing On The Cake  was going to win a long way out last start and the step to 1600m looks right now.

5.Ivy’s Court  improver’s 4th last start and Vinnie suits her.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

3.Acre has put in two strong runs to place and with Vinnie Colgan on board now, he should get a good run to get a well deserved win. RP $6, $13 Ff

Dangers:

1.Come Back Tiger close 4th in stronger field last start. Drawn wide so needs luck.

13.She Dares good second to a nice horse last start. Fitter.

5.Luck Of Master  drawn to get all favours- good run on debut.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

11.Igraine 1st $5  has excellent German form behind a Group 1 winner and looked good beating the smart Padraig who has since won. Nice looking horse and ready to go fresh up. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers:

6.Raposa Rapida impressive fresh up and bit flat second up. Third up over 1400m looks ideal.

12.Ritani  looks to have ability and 1400m on a better surface will suit.

16.Indian Maid strong second two back. Back from R75 class for this with Chris Johnson up.

Race 7

The speed map shows Rodrico, Valante, Youwantmore and Jochen Rindt, who is likely to try and lead with a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Rodrico fought hard at Tauranga last start in the Kiwifruit Cup for second. He drops in class for this and has to be right at peak fitness for this after two runs over ground now. Maps to get every chance on a moderate tempo and is likely to look to get 2nd outer as he just did not like that sand being flicked back at him here two starts back. So outside the leader will take that factor out of it. Baker/Forsman trained and looks well placed. RP $1.80, $1.65 FF

 Dangers:

1.Jochen Rindt came from behind Rodrico here last start and beat him down the straight. If the inside rail is ok, he is a chance to lead, kick and make it interesting.

4.Youwantmore needed that last run and the better track didn’t suit.

7.Valante drawn to get a cosy trail and be a place chance from there.

Race 8

The speed map shows good early speed from out wide and an even tempo likely.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

6.Vittachi 1st $6  has been looking for ground and draws to get every chance. RP $4.50

Dangers:

16.Replica is looking for ground now and drawn to get all favours.

4.Gabriel game second last start and gets 3kgs off again.

8.Touch Of Silver is likely to go forward and be hard to peg back if he gets a softish lead.

Awapuni

It is going to be a tough day for horses and punter here on a heavy 11 track.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race with trial and recent jumpout form from Levin with 19 heats so pass.

The money has come for 1 and 8 so they look the two.

Dangers:

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Back In A Flash 1st $3.50 on debut was an impressive winner, scampering away late then eased down to win easily in a good speed rating and the fifth horse, Akoya Pearl, bolted in next up. Nice filly and looks the one.

Dangers:

1.Platinum Valos  strong second to Vatican News last start and it won well next up.

Race 3

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

3.Sea Star  1st $4  game second here last start and Lisa sticks with him. RP $4

Dangers:

4.Miss Lizzie game second last start and gets 4kgs off again.

1.Ottavio seems to find one too good often. The inside should be ok and if he can get a softish lead, he could hold on.

Race 4

Confidence:1/5

1.Leaf  has the best form in the race and strikes a weak lot. RP $3.40, $2.40 Ff is too short.

Dangers:

7.Cassino To Trieste  good second two back. Wide draw here may be a plus.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 in an even race

2.Wazuzu  was travelling like a winner a long way out last start. Right at the top of his game and looks the one to beat again. RP $3.50, $3 FF

Dangers:

1.Sylvester 1st $5  has the best FR on a heavy track and gets 3kgs off.

4.Zartan game second last start and fitter now.

9.Jump For Joy gets in on a winning weight and fitter now.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Beau Jeu  1st $3  was just beaten last start and will be right at his peak for this now. RP $3.50, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

8.Magic Ivan  will relish the extra ground now and gets 3kgs off.

14.Avastin strong second last start and fitter. Wide draw could be a plus.

3.General Sherman  won well last start and more ground is going to suit.

Race 7

The speed map shows there is no obvious leader. And with the track likely to be biased to runners away from the rail and off the lead, it is going to be a tactical race probably run at a slow tempo. Something might decide to make a midrace move and try and steel it. Rosewood could be that horse with Lisa Allpress not afraid to take the bull by the horns.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Rosewood 1st $2  was a dominant winner here last start on the minimum. Stays on the minimum and over 1400m is just as effective. Her biggest asset is her determination to win. She has drawn out which ensures Lisa can stay away from what will likely be an off inside and pick her time as to when she makes her move and does look well placed to win again. RP $3, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

5.Platinum Command won really well at Trentham then after a 21 day break fought well for third here. She has been relishing her work and on 54kgs, has to the main danger.

1.Taurus ran third in this last year and after three runs back should be right in this.

2.Ringo has the blinkers going on and it would not surprise to see him right in this.

Race 8

The speed map shows Ticket to Ride and Direct Capital likely to dominate inn front and with the bias likely to be to the centre and wider, it is likely to be a bunched lot the 600m.

Confidence: 2/5

12.Dark Princess was a dominant winner last start and has always looked like she would win more races. Up in class but drops to 54.5kgs. Being a big striding mare the outside draw is ideal so she can settle in the first half of the field wide with cover behind a moderate tempo, which will be ideal by this time of day, and get to the outside and use her strength to get over these again with the lightest weight she has ever carried. RP $4.2, $6 FF

Dangers:

6.Elle Eye Are is a strong filly and was a big winner in this class last start. Negative could be the inside draw but Lisa Allpress will be doing all she can to get her out if that’s the place to be.

1.Dez  is a good horse. Drops back in distance giving weight are negatives, but is going to win more races, so has to be in combinations.

7.Bransome  did well last start covering a lot of ground out wide while the winner came through on the inner saving lengths. Drops to 54.5 kgs.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!