Wednesday 11 July preview below

Update: 11.45 a.m. No further bets -watch out for the review of the meeting by 5 p.m. Thursday.

Good morning,

I am introducing a new addition to the previews. Each preview day I’m going to be posting:

-Multi of the day

-$1k from $10 multi of the day

-Quaddie of the Day

-Lays of the Day

As well as the usual Bet of the day and Value bet of the day.

They may not be posted by 8.45 a.m. as sometimes they will include bets that include runners where the odds are posted later in the morning e.g. head to head and Australian FF odds. It will be posted in the update by noon. Watch out for updates throughout the day as well on Twitter. My handle is @formpro and if you aren’t on Twitter, you can see them on the home page on the on the bottom right hand side for free.

 

Today’s bets are:

Bet of the day Race 1 2.English Gambler $3 FF 2nd 

Value bet of the day Race 3 9.Blackmagicwoman $4.40 FF Missed after getting her chance

 

-Multi of the day $10 Returns $132

NZ Racing	11 Jul 2018 12:07	M2 R1 AVONDALE RACES 1200m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt211)	$3.00 English Gambler (6)58.5
NZ Racing	11 Jul 2018 13:17	M2 R3 AVONDALE RACES 2000m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt213)	$4.40 Blackmagicwoman (7)54

 

 

-The $1k from $10 multi

$10 returns $1009

NZ Racing	11 Jul 2018 12:07	M2 R1 AVONDALE RACES 1200m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt211)	$3.00 English Gambler (6)58.5
NZ Racing	11 Jul 2018 13:17	M2 R3 AVONDALE RACES 2000m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt213)	$4.40 Blackmagicwoman (7)54
NZ Racing	11 Jul 2018 14:27	M2 R5 AVONDALE RACES 1360m Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt215)	$4.50 Zenntari (12)58.5
Australian Racing	11 Jul 2018 17:40	M11 R6 WARWICK FARM RACE 1400m Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1116)	$1.70 Pianissimo (2)59.5

 

-Quaddie of the Day

$21 for 10%

Leg 1:	1. Lambrusco 2. He’s Unforgettable 5. Leica Warrior 8. Master Genie 10. She’s All Clang 12. Dancilla 13. Divine Duke
Leg 2:	3. Zenntari
Leg 3:	1. Inca Warrior 4. Vincentius 5. Currahee Lad 6. Sun Genes 13. Repo Bay 14. Spirited Away
Leg 4:	1. Solmization 3. Az Given 5. Midnight Runner 7. Lupelani 10. So Much Mour

 

 

 

Lays of the Day ( Favourites to get beaten and reasons are given in the preview below) you can also bet around them for the exotics etc. 2 out of 3 got beaten

Race 1 1.Tryfan $2.80 FF 1st just

Race 2 1.Blanco Bay $3.20 FF 2nd

Race 3 1.Roget That at $4.20 FF 3rd

Warwick Farm

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

6.Task And Purpose missed after getting a horse rump run  looks ready to strike from the Waller stable. On debut he was held up and unleashed late for third. Second up on the pace and battled late fir 5th. Last start got back after snagging from the wide draw, but closed off strongly for second in a strong speed rating. Waller jumps her from 1250m to 1600m which he doesn’t normally do, so he must think she definitely needs the extra ground. Her better draw will allow her to settle in a winning position and the better track will definitely help now. Fourth up with top rider Blake Shinn up, she looks well placed against these to win. RP $2.40, $2.80 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.Pianissimo 3rd the rider needed some coffee before the race- he fell asleep before the turn! flew two starts back in a stronger field when 11th 3w cvr, wider in the open 600m out with the eventual winner Manolo Blahniq on his inner then tracked him up, then 200m out got off his back too late then responded really well to the whip to change legs 150m out really let down strongly for second in a good speed rating over the 1300m. Last start he got back and had no room at all in the straight finishing with a few gears to go through. This time, James McDonald jumps on, who will suit him ideally. From the good draw, with the likely good tempo, he can settle him about 5th or 6th and from there, on a drier track, will be very hard to keep out. RP $3.00, $4.20 Ff

Avondale

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.English Gambler 2nd  put in a top run on debut when wide then was sent forward to get 2nd outer, led on the turn and was run down by the smart Back In A Flash who won impressively at Awapuni again on Saturday. Fifth horse, Akoya Pearl, won next up also. I Blackbooked ( BB) him in the formline as he did more work than anything else and the speed rating was very good. He strikes an average lot here and with J Riddell riding in great form, he will give him every chance. RP $2.50, $3 FF

Dangers:

1.Tryfan 1st $3  looks the obvious danger and the market says so, but he had his chance fresh up and didn’t seem to want to pass the leader and winner Very Amazing who only ran 9th next up. He probably needs blinkers and second up after having a few chances, I just feel English Gambler will have the edge over him.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

9.Zatsaone 1st $4  on debut trailed and was under pressure on the turn in the slower ground, but kept grinding away with her head down with a good wet track action to run fourth. She steps to 2000m now which looks a logical step for the filly out of a Zabeel mare. Matt Cameron has snapped up the mount and strikes a weak field to win. RP $3.40, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Stole The Show looked good two starts back motoring home for fifth Then last start was slow away, went round them all and kept finding the line for third. The step to 2000m is a 600m jump and it is only for that reason that he goes behind Zatsaone, despite the 4kg claim.

1.Blanco Bay ran a battling third in his only run over a middle distance and that was here on a bog. Chris Johnson jumps on which will keep his price shorter than it should be and has had plenty of chances

Race 3

Confidence:3/5 it seems to be a race for the claiming runners.

9.Blackmagic Woman was very impressive last start winning her third race at Rotorua. She ran home in a faster last 600m than many runners in the shorter races. She was travelling peaches and cream a long way out and when Leica Warrior came at her 100m out, Elish just gave her a shake up and she pulled away to win easing down. So she steps to R75 grade here and gets  a 9kg pull against Roger That on 50kgs, who saves his best for Te Awamutu with all of his 4 wins there, so she is good value at $4.50. I Rate her a $3.20 chance. RP, $3.20, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

10.Gabriel  big run in a strong field last Saturday and close second to the handy Suliman at Tauranga before that. Gets 3kgs off.

6.Cool Cassie won well here but it was a tough run, and she may still have been feeling the effects of that at Tauranga 19 days later when she just battled behind Gabriel. Gets 3kgs off so weighted to be in it if she hasn’t trained off.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race for the first leg of the quaddie

10.She’s All Clang 1st $4.60 tri $380  bolted in last start so in the same grade on a similar very heavy track, has to be a realistic chance with the 2kg mares allowance. RP $5, $5.50

Dangers:

8.Master Genie  is ready to go closer now third up. Has run a distant 3rd at Ellerslie on a heavy 11 in an R75 race. Samanath Collett sticks with him.

5.Leica Warrior gets Lisa Allpress on board now and will get every chance. Right at his peak now.

12.Dancilla won too well two starts back so can be forgiven for an off day last start. Baker/Forsman would not keep her going unless she was right and Matt Cameron will suit her.

1.Lambrusco gets 3kgs off which he will feel this time. Bolted in two starts back.

2.He’s Unforgettable  3rd $2 won well last start. There looks to be a bit of speed up front so it will suit him biding his time back in the field.

13.Divine Duke 2nd $4 has the best FR on a heavy track in the last 12 months and gets 4kgs off.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

3.Zenntari  on debut was caught 3 wide in the open on an even tempo and did very well to keep finding to run second to a handy Vincentius who had a better run second outer. The speed rating was good and he is a strong looking 3yo Zed with an ideal bog track action. Drawn out which should be a plus. May just be too strong for Codecracker and others over the last 100 metres. RP $2.50, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

7.Codecracker 2nd $1.60 Tri $130   was just beaten by the handy Sweet Nineteen last start. Needs a better run than Zenntari to beat him though.

4.Next Up 1st $8  from 1×1 was scrubbed up 6th 400m out came back late for third. More ground will suit with the blinkers going on.

2.Mount Midoriyama 3rd $2 ran a game second last start second up. Tiley will have him peaking for this but has drawn the rail, which could be the kiss of death.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 Vincentus looks like a nice horse but there are a few chances if he has an off day or that wide draw is no advantage by this time of day.

4.Vincentius looked good winning last start in a good speed rating. He is a strong fella and Lisa Allpress has come up to ride him. The wide draw should be a bonus. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Inca Warrior fought hard against Te Toro Pearl two starts back and that is good form. Should be right in this. Inside draw a query though by this time of day.

13.Repo Bay  wioth the blinkers finally goping on will definitely encutrage a better run.

5.Currahee Lad  won well fresh up then raced as though more ground is what he needs now rallying back last start over 1230m.

6.Sun Genes  was just beaten by a nice horse here two starts back on a bog and gets 3kgs off this time.

14.Spirited Away  good 4th fresh up and caught in slow lane last start. Wide draw helps this time and matt Cameron will suit her from a wide draw which will be an asset.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 and very much depends on how the track is playing. Normally, by this stage of the day, it favours runners drawn out.

7.Lupelani $4.80 qu $15  bolted in here two starts back on a 1.20 for 1200m track and repeated the dose last start on a similar surface when heavily punted. Wide draw could be essential by this time of day ( It was ) and being from the Tiley stable, will be ready to make it a hat trick. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

10.So Much More game second here two back and also last start. Drawn out which will help and fights hard.

5.Midnight Runner 2nd $2.30 won strongly last start second up and 4th was Santa Monica, who won well next up. He will be even fitter for this. Handles heavy stuff very well and getting that 3kgs off again will be all he needs. Drawn the inside so if inside is off, it will make it harder.

1.Solmization has the best FR on a heavy 11 track Since June last year and gets 4kgs off after a good third last start.

3.Az Given  won the R75 race here at this meeting last year over 1200m. Good 4th fresh up in a stronger R85 race last start and has the 2nd and 3rd best FR on a heavy track.