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Saturday 14 July preview below

Update: 3.14 p.m.

I’ve just spent $519 on a 10% bet as it is likely to struck by more than one 10% ticket but if Dez wins, it may pay the lot if can fluke good priced winners in other legs. Enjoy the ride. Missed after being live after 4 legs. Opening Balance $5261- 519 = $4742 closing balance.

Leg 1: 2. Dr Watson
4. El Luchador
5. Trisha Lea
6. Peso
Leg 2: 1. Woodsman
3. Major Tom
5. Jake The Muss
7. Beaufighter
8. Kyrie Eleison
9. I See Red
Leg 3: 2. Rosewood
5. Dez
Leg 4: 1. Conspirator
2. Final Suggestion
3. Steven James
4. Amazing Az
5. Anatow
7. Marbles
8. Adis
9. Scarfi
10. Alesund
Leg 5: 1. Keep It Savvy
2. Two Thirty
3. Jackson Road
5. Akoya Pearl
7. Sophia Magia
12. Em Kay Pops
Leg 6: 1. Cossastock
3. Tavlin
4. Bellinsky
6. Marzemino

 

 

Update:

I’ve just spent $519 on a 10% bet as it is likely to struck by more than one 10% ticket. The first leg runners are below:

Leg 1: 2. Dr Watson
4. El Luchador
5. Trisha Lea
6. Peso

 

 Heads Up below – apologies for the delay. There was  hitch with last week’s comp so that will be drawn next week. The Money Shot’s best sports bet is The Hurricanes -4.5 points at $1.87 tonight.

Update at noon with any other bets. No further bets recommended.

Update 7.59 a.m.

Bet of the day Caulfield Race 5 3.Rolito $1.85 FF  2nd 

Value bet of the day Caulfield Race 2 11.Soul Star $5.50 FF  2nd 

Speed map special Rosehill Race 1 2.Master Ash $4 FF  2nd 

Sneaky of the day Trentham Race 7 5.Dez $5.50 Ff can cover on Rosewood at $1.90 FF  1st $4.20

 

Multi of the Day $10 returns $101.90

Caulfield Race 5 3.Rolito $1.85FF

Ruakaka Race 3 3.Not Usual Heart $1.90 FF

Caulfield Race 6 3.Mount Kilcoy $2.90 FF

 

$1k for $10 multi Returns $1,100

Caulfield Race 5 3.Rolito $1.85FF

Ruakaka Race 3 3.Not Usual Heart $1.90 FF

Caulfield Race 6 3.Mount Kilcoy $2.90 FF

Rosehill Race 1 2.Master Ash $4 FF

Morphetville Race 6 3.Belwazi $2.70 FF

 

Ruakaka Quaddie $20 for 5%

Leg 1: 1. Swissta
4. Aim Smart
5. Ohceedee
8. Sound Works
9. Real Fun
Leg 2: 1. Woodsman
3. Major Tom
5. Jake The Muss
9. I See Red
Leg 3: 2. Final Suggestion
3. Steven James
4. Amazing Az
5. Anatow
10. Alesund
Leg 4: 1. Cossastock
3. Tavlin
4. Bellinsky
6. Marzemino

 

Trentham $20 bet for 31%

Leg 1: 2. Wise Men Say
5. Chocolate Fish
Leg 2: 2. Dr Watson
4. El Luchador
5. Trisha Lea
6. Peso
Leg 3: 2. Rosewood
5. Dez
Leg 4: 1. Keep It Savvy
2. Two Thirty
5. Akoya Pearl
7. Sophia Magia

If you are in the Pick 6 syndicate I may have a bet today. If I do, I’ll post it by 3 p.m. and if I don’t I will post that as well.

Australia 

Rosehill

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 ( Sectional Special Stable)

2.Master Ash 2nd second up after an improver’s second on debut, he was used early with his natural speed and led and set an even tempo, then kicked hard on the turn to put a winning break on them, and was naturally tired a bit late but it was an impressive win over 150m. The sectional splits and Speed Rating, which was better than the MB 75 race and the same as the two other older horse races, says that he is going to win more races as not may 2yos can burn twice in a race. He maps to get the lead again and Tim Clark, who rode him perfectly last start, and knows him better, should be able to get his own way as I can’ see any of these taking him out, and he should be able to pinch a break on the turn and be very hard to peg back from there. RP $2.70, $4FF

Favourite The Fire Trap won well last start but on a slow track in a slow speed rating.

Caulfield

Race 2 2.25 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

11.Soul Star  2nd   fresh up here over 1100m she got back from a wdie draw and was bolting on the turn and never got a clear crack at them. She would have won or gone very close if she had have got out when Craig Williams wanted her to. He sticks with her and from the better draw and over 1200m she can settle closer and with the nice weight, beat these home. RP $3.70, $5.50 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 4/5 ( Sectional Special Stable)

3.Rolito   2nd won with plenty in hand in the best Speed Rating all day here last start. There looks to be an even tempo and Craig Williams is in hot form, so she does look too good for these again. RP $1.60, $1.80 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5 ( Sectional Special Stable)

3.Mount Kilcoy  1st $2.50 and finally we get a decent ride from the top Darren Weir Stable, ran a strong second two starts back in a strong speed rating over 1600m. Then last Saturday at Flemington settled 6th off a slow tempo and once asked to go 300m out, charged home for second running by far the best closing sectionals. I loved the way he flattened out so the 200m looks ideal and on 54 kgs, Ben Allen can settle him midfield and with an even tempo likely at this track, he can get over these comfortably with 5kgs off the only danger, Masculino. RP $2.20, $2.90 FF

Morphettville

Race 6 5.41 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 ( Sectional Special Stable)

3.Belwazi missed after missing the jump. last start pinged out from a wide draw and dropped the bit straight away and eased in 3rd outer, then put them away on the turn to win in the best speed rating all day. We are getting $2.70 FF because of the wide draw bu8t he has early good speed and I’m picking Allen will look to jump and look to get 6th 3w cover and with an even tempo likely, just be able to pounce at the right time and be too good for these. RP $2.00, $2.70

Race 1

The speed map shows Spider should lead or sit 2nd outer with Longchamp leading. Vinevale could end up 3 back inner off a slow tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Rockabyebaby  did well last start when 3 wide with cover and covered more ground that Vinevale. She should be further improved by that run and third up with a cosy run probably in the 1×1, Collett could try and keep Vinevale boxed in until the turn, then if she can go for the doctor once turning in, she could get enough of a break to hold out Vinevale. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

2.Vinevale  1st $2.00 won going away here last start off a moderate tempo ( 9th slowest tempo to the 600m all day) so did well to win. She is in danger, despite the small field, of getting caught on the rail in a sit sprint race. It just depends how soon she can get out and balanced.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

1.Balega 2nd good third here last start and drawn to get a good run. RP $5.00

Dangers:

3.Viva La Burgundy fitter after an improver’s fourth here fresh up and drawn well.

8.Lady Sequoyah blackbook run last start and will be ready.

Race 3

The speed map shows Rich Billie Marsh likely to set an even tempo which will suit all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Not Usual Heart won easily here last start and with Billie setting up a decent tempo, where she can settle one off with the gaps opening up, it is hard to see any of these beating her to the post. RP $1.80, $1.90 FF

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

6.Von Trapp 1st $2.60  looked very good winning his trial and with a clean beginning, looks too good for these despite the wide draw. RP $2.50, $2.90

Dangers:

10.Hapi Ella won well here last start and gets in nicely at the weights.

1.Jon Wick got the draw and a soft lead to win last start. $3.20 is too short.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

9.Real Fun lost the bob here last start but drawn to get an ideal run and go one better. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Aim Smart 1st $2.70 is ready to win fresh up. Drawn awkwardly though for a $2.40 chance.

5.Ohceedee won well here last start and should get every chance to repeat.

1.Swissta with 4kgs off and a good ride can do it fresh.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.I See Red put in a very big effort last start here when caught midfield 3 wide in the open and didn’t lose ground on Major Tom in the last 200 metres. This time she draws in 2 and Major Tom draws to do more work. So with her natural improvement from being her first run over ground, and where she should get a winning run this time, plus getting 3kgs off major Tom this time, she can win. RP $4.50, $8 FF

Dangers:

5.Jake The Muss had no room here last start and the blinkers go on from a better draw, so he can settle midfield and with a little more luck, will be coming at his stable mate late.

3.Major Tom   1st $2.70  got all favours to win well here last time. Drawn to do extra work so $2.70 FF is too short.

1.Woodsman put in a top run here fresh up and if he can work his way to the lead, he can dictate and could easily kick and win. The negative is he can miss the kick  and if he does, from that 5 draw, he will find it hard to lead.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

2.Final Suggestion led and won strongly here last start. Seems happier in front and if he can lead again, should prove hard to catch.

Dangers:

4.Amazing Az  did well on debut and from well back.

5.Anatow did well after a check last start. Drawn better.

3.Steven James  is a nice horse and will be ready to fire fresh.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

4.Bellinsky set a good pace fresh up and stuck well for third. With natural improvement could win. RP $4.00

Dangers:

6.Marzemino may have needed that fresh run. Vinnnie jumps on and drawn ideally.

1.Cossastock will appreciate the better ground from the good draw.

3.Tavlin if they go too hard, he’s the one to swamp them.

Trentham

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

9.Mandalay  strong second last start and peaking now. RP $4, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

4-1-7

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Kiddo is a good hurdler who ran third in an open hurdle after a game second here. Obvious winner. RP $2.40, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

3-2-4

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.The Shackler will be out in front jumping well. Despite the 70kgs, can lead all the way. RP $2.50, $2.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Iffitel was a dominant winner last start and looks the obvious danger.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Red Sierra 1st $2.90won strongly last start and with an even pace likely here, she can get over these with the 53kgs( Rider rides at 53kgs) RP $4, $3 FF

Dangers:

1.Salamanca looks ready to peak and gets 3kgs off.

2.Perfect Harmonee isn’t a big horse and will need a softish time up front.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Chocolate Fish was coming home strongly last start and will relish the extra ground. RP $3.80, $4.20 and was The Money Shot’s bet of the weekend.

Dangers:

2.Wise Men Say  1st $3  strong second last start and 5500m on a bog is what he needs.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

4/El Luchador 1st $3.60 won well at Tauranga and this field is no stronger. RP $4.00, $4 FF

Dangers:

5.Trisha Lea  is as tough as they come and will be right in it.

2.Dr Watson  is tough and goes well here

6.Peso is tough and a slog in the bog suits.

Race 7

The speed map shows Gallante sliding to the lead and a moderate tempo likely

Confidence: 3/5 on backing two horses.

5.Dez 1st $4.20 and took a mountain of money – Thanks DB just had things go wrong last week. With a clear run he would have won. He drops to 54kgs which he will feel and they want to win to get enough points to get into the Winter Cup, which looks ideal for him. he’s now out to $6 FF and may pay more on the day. He really does look like he could be a top winter galloper so at the good odds, I’d suggest backing him to win and saving on Rosewood. e.g. $20 win on Dez at $6 FF and $25 win on Rosewood at $$1.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Rosewood  just has that will to beat other horses home as she showed in her strong burst to win last week. A 1600m slog at Trentham suits her and with only 53.5kgs with Wiremu Pinn up, and being a small mare, she has to be hard to keep out again. RP $1.80, $1.80 FF

4.Platinum Command won well here three back so has to be a place chance.

3.Doiknowyou has the blinkers going on is tough and a slog in a real bog will help with Lisa Allpress up.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

7.Sophia Magic ran a game second to Rosewood here in an R75 race – good form! RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Two Thirty game third last start and has won in a bog.

1.Keep It Savvy  fitter now and ready to win.

5.Akoya Pearl  won well last start and will be further improved.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!