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Wednesday preview below

Te Aroha

The last meeting here the rail was out 3m and the inside few metres were off. Today it is out 8m and it may be ok for inside runners early on in the flat races. It just depends on how much that track gets churned up from the two earlier hurdle races. But I’m pretty sure by races 7, 8 and 9, they will need to be getting out wider to win as they were doing here at the last meeting.

I’ve previewed race 3 and the quaddie legs. I suggest enjoy watching the other three jumps races. It’s hard enough trying to find a winner on a bog here let alone when they have a few obstacles along the way.

Bet of the Day Race 6 2.Zamora $2.20 FF 1st $2

Value bet of the Day Race 7 9.Velveteen $4.50 FF  2nd 

Suggested quaddies:

$10 for 20%

Leg 1: 2. Zamora
Leg 2: 3. Karm ‘N’ Easy
9. Velveteen
10. Bella Blue
Leg 3: 2. Blackjack Man
3. Bransome
4. Quantum
13. Raspberry Sweet
Leg 4: 1. Mount Midoriyama
6. Gingee
9. Stormy Waters
10. Lady Day

$10 for 10%

Leg 1: 1. Istimagic
6. Caballo Noir
Leg 2: 3. Karm ‘N’ Easy
9. Velveteen
10. Bella Blue
Leg 3: 2. Blackjack Man
3. Bransome
4. Quantum
13. Raspberry Sweet
Leg 4: 1. Mount Midoriyama
6. Gingee
9. Stormy Waters
10. Lady Day

 

Multi of the Day $10 returns

Race 3 8.Sienna Grace $3.50 FF with Race 6 2.Zamora $2.20 FF

$1k from $10 multi  ( $10 returns $1663 )

Race 3 8.Sienna Grace $3.50 FF with Race 6 2.Zamora $2.20 FFwith Race 7 9.Velveteen $4.50 FF and Race 8 4.Quantum $4.80 Ff

 

 

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

8.Sienna Grace last start unwound well for a close third over 2000m at Te Awamutu. She has trialed nicely since to make sure she is ft enough for this. The 22oom is ideal now and Samantha Collett can get her home against this weak lot. RP $3.00, $3.50 FF

First leg of the Quaddie

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5 in a race where Zamora looks set to win third up. I’d save on 1 and 6 though as it is a jumps race!

2.Zamora 1st $2 last start looked terrific before the start and jumped well. He was only outfinished late by a race fit Old Countess and Aaron Kru lost his irons late but he was beaten when he lost them. The 3rd and 4th horses have since run strong placings. So third up, he looks set to go one better. RP{ $2.50, $2.20 FF

Dangers:

6.Caballo Noir has had three runs back now and is set to debut over the bigger fences. He ran a strong second here in 2016 on a bog and in similar conditions, which suits his galloping action, he can win.

1.Istimagic  had his chance here last start and battled from the turn. He ran second 12 days before here after a break so may have been a bit flat. Fitter now and is a realistic chance.

This time he has draw better and with good speed inside him, should get a nice sit near the pace and be hard to beat.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 with 3,9 and 10 well placed to win.

9.Velveteen 2nd and lucky not to be forced into the angled fence 200m out! won strongly two starts back at Matamata on a heavy 10 in very good sectional splits compared to the R65 race. After a 38 day break, she got back over 1400m on a better Slow 7 track and found the line well. She is an obvious improver off that and gets in on a nice weight with the 2kg mares allowance. Plus she draws out and will be able to get to the right part of the track. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Karm ‘N’ Easy won strongly here two starts back in a good speed rating. Then next up here drew wide and worked harder in the open than anything else while the winner, Sweet Treat, got all favours and won. This time he has draw better and with good speed inside him, should get a nice sit near the pace and be hard to beat.

 

10.Bella Blue  relished a heavy track and has drawn out which is a plus. Gets back over 1600m and nicely weighted with leading rider Samantha Collett replacing the apprentices.

1.Campobasso put it altogether last start here and won in faster time than the R65 race carrying significantly more weight. But the negative with him is he be slow away and if he is, with the good early speed around him, he is going to be trapped in the slower stuff, so can’t be backed with confidence because of that. 

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.Quantum 2nd $2 two starts back was too tough on a Heavy 11 over 1400 at Te Awamutu. Then last start up in this class, got back on the inner which was not ideal, but unwound well for fourth hitting the line the best of anything in a good field and subsequent winner Red Sierra won the Open race at Trentham last Saturday. Back on a heavy track over 1400m looks ideal and has drawn out which will be essential. Jonathan Riddell jumps back on too. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

13.Raspberry Sweet closed off strongly for 4th last start. Up in class but down in weight and fitter after the two runs back.

2.Blackjack Man has won twice here and drawn to get a good run away from the inside.

3.Bransome 1st $9 good 4th two starts back and boggy track last start. Gets 3kgs off.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Stormy Waters fought on well for third last start and being fitter now should be hard to beat. RP $3.50

Dangers:

1.Mount Midoriyama 1st $2  fought well for third last start against a couple of good horses.

10.Lady Day  looked good closing off strongly for second in her recent trial with a good wet track action. Gets 3kgs off too. Drawn near the inner but so have the two favourites.

6.Gingee  3rd $6 trialled ok for 4th when checked 500m out and made up nice ground in the slower stuff with a good wet track action. Drawn out which could mean he can upset getting the last go at them out wide.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!