Home » Results » Saturday 21 July 2018 preview below

Saturday 21 July 2018 preview below

Update:

Another masterful ride by Lisa Allpress leading all the way on Batchelor Babe knocks us out with Pinn taking the scenic route out wide! Opening Balance $4742 – 2970 = $1772 closing balance for next week. At least I didn’t spend the lot!

I would never have taken Athena Baby if you had paid me!

We have Lupelani as an anchor so if that wins, we could still do it if some double figure winners win the last few legs.

 

 

 

Leg 1: 1. Jochen Rindt
2. Youwantmore
4. Tommyra
5. The Kipling Girl
7. Laekeeper
8. Rough Cut
Leg 2: 5. Lupelani
Leg 3: 1. Worthiswaitngold
2. Pasabahce
3. Verry Flash
6. Big Ben
7. Impulsive Habit
8. Mauna Kea
9. L’Acclamation
10. Rene
11. Artiste
Leg 4: 1. Currahee Lad
2. Sound The Siren
3. Zeefa Zed
7. Bully Boy
8. Beltoy
9. Sky Hi Rahtwo
10. Triple Diamond
11. Kaliper
13. Cassino To Trieste
14. Foiling
Leg 5: 2. No Loitering
3. Athletica
4. Braavos
6. Air Centre
7. Alvins Dream
8. Cancellara
9. Moet Molly
10. Dragon Dancer
11. Prodigal Son
14. Miss Campbell
Leg 6: 1. Hamiltonian
3. Beau Jeu
6. Time Bomb
7. Hard To Be Humble
8. Deejay Mac
9. Onefortheditch
10. Where Are You
11. Bang
12. Grinner
13. Whoshotmymate
15. Summer Warrior

 

 

 

Leg 1: 1. Jochen Rindt
2. Youwantmore
4. Tommyra
5. The Kipling Girl
7. Laekeeper
8. Rough Cut
Leg 2: 5. Lupelani
Leg 3: 1. Worthiswaitngold
2. Pasabahce
3. Verry Flash
6. Big Ben
7. Impulsive Habit
8. Mauna Kea
9. L’Acclamation
10. Rene
11. Artiste
Leg 4: 1. Currahee Lad
2. Sound The Siren
3. Zeefa Zed
7. Bully Boy
8. Beltoy
9. Sky Hi Rahtwo
10. Triple Diamond
11. Kaliper
13. Cassino To Trieste
14. Foiling
Leg 5: 2. No Loitering
3. Athletica
4. Braavos
6. Air Centre
7. Alvins Dream
8. Cancellara
9. Moet Molly
10. Dragon Dancer
11. Prodigal Son
14. Miss Campbell
Leg 6: 1. Hamiltonian
3. Beau Jeu
6. Time Bomb
7. Hard To Be Humble
8. Deejay Mac
9. Onefortheditch
10. Where Are You
11. Bang
12. Grinner
13. Whoshotmymate
15. Summer Warrior

 

 

 

 

Leg 1: 1. Jochen Rindt
2. Youwantmore
4. Tommyra
5. The Kipling Girl
7. Laekeeper
8. Rough Cut

We have spent $2970 on a 10 % bet and the first leg runners are below. I’ll post the full bet just after the first leg is run.

 

Leg 1: 1. Jochen Rindt
2. Youwantmore
4. Tommyra
5. The Kipling Girl
7. Laekeeper
8. Rough Cut

 

 

Heads Up Below: The Money Shot’s best sports bet is Wests with an 8.5 point start at $1.87 Saturday at 7.30 p.m. We preview the big race at Taranaki and you can win a free month’s sub to Formpro.

 

 

Bet of the Day New Plymouth Race 5 4.New York Minute RP $2.20, $3.40 FF 1st $2.80 

Value bet of the Day New Plymouth Race 4 2.Smiling Proud $4.80 FF Missed after leader went too fast.

Speed Map Special Ransdwick Race 8 3.Bandipur $2.60 FF 1st $2.90 

Sneaky of the Day New Plymouth Race 1 4.Charlie Horse $5.50 FF 1st $4.70 

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is Wests with an 8.5 point start at $1.87 Saturday at 7.30 p.m.

If you are in the Pick 6 syndicate there is a good chance I will be going all-in today but won’t decide until I see some races earlier in the day.

Randwick

Race 8 17.55 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 (Sectional Special Stable)

3.Bandipur 1st $2.90 with a top ride on a good horse. last start drew out and covered plenty of extra ground but closed hard for thir in a good speed rating. So third up from an a draw that will give him every chance this time, plus Hugh Bowman jumps on, he ticks all the boxes and looks very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.60 Ff

New Plymouth

Update 1.15 p.m.

Our New Plymouth Track Walker, Marmite, who knows the track very well said, ” The inside two widths are better than further out, which is quite holding. The last bend and straight should favour leaders, 2nd outer or trailers in the early races at least. Right out wide is better than the middle area. “

The rail is back into 3 metres from 11 metres at the last meeting here on June 7th when it was a Heavy 10 when races were tempo based winning from mostly on the pace but Inverness coming from 10th off a fast tempo. The winning draws were: 3, 7, 8 ( fast tempo) 9, 5, 8, 2.

The forecast is for the odd shower Friday and a ‘Touch of rain’ on Saturday so the current Heavy 10 is likely to stay the same.

At this meeting last year on a heavy 11 track with the rail out 4 metres the winners came from:

Race 1 Lecto Divinia: Led,tkld tn, won two horse war, Drew 1 ( Won on the rail)

Race 2 Youwantmore: Trld, thru inr 200,too good, Drew 4 ( Won on the rail)

Race 3 Katie Mckeen Hunted to ld,snuck away tn,too good, Drew 8 ( Won on the rail)

Race 4 Manhattan Flame 5th,trld 600,drove thru 100,too gd Drew 1 ( Won on the rail)

Race 5 Longchamp: Hndy 3w opn,kikd 300,too tough Drew 11 ( Won 5 widths off the rail down straight)

Race 6 Rosewood: 1×1, chal tn, led,held on gamely Drew 2 ( Won 3 widths off the rail down straight)

Race 7 Onefortheditch: 12th inr,blokd 500,out 300, big fin Drew 11 ( Won 7 widths off the rail down straight)

Race 8 Landlord: 6th inr,led inr tn,kept finding Drew 3 ( Won 2 widths off the rail down straight)

 

RP = Rated Price which reflects the chance I give the horse. E.g a $2 chance has a 50% chance of winning. A $3 chance a 33.33 % chance of winning.

FR = Formpro Rating which is the figure given to the horse which indicates how it performed numerically. E.g a midweek South Island maiden winner will rate around 91 depending on what weight it carries. A Group 1 winner will rate around 118 depending on what weight it carries.

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

4.Charlie Horse 1st $4.70  ran a strong second to Wonderful Barbie two back when trailing and closing on her late. Then last start drew out, snagged and was cruising well out and bolted in. He’s drawn 3 and has the early speed to lead or be right on the pace and from there, can beat these. RP $3.90, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

2.General Sherman drawn to land closer and is right at his peak now.

5.Wonderful Barbie has won her last two like she can win more races. Likely to get back though and with the rail being the place to be, she is too short at RP $6,$4.20 Ff

6.Country Bumpkin drawn to get a trail with a clean beginning and that will be a good place to be.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Cape Du Jeu 1st $4.50 was a close fifth in the slower inner going in an R75 race last start. Drops back to R65 class and from the good draw, can jump and be near the rail and from there looks well placed to win back in class. RP $4, $5.50 Ff

Dangers: 6.Pearlescence finished off strongly last start and is ready to win now. Just needs a good pace and the right run RP $6, $5.80 Ff

9.Wonder Lass  got up over more ground last start and won well. Won a trial well since and if she can work over and get handy early, is right in this.

Race 3

The speed map shows at least five runners will be looking to lead or be close to it, ensuring at least an even tempo suiting all runners and maybe off pace runners. But if the inside is still playing as an advantage, that needs to be taken into account.

Confidence: 2/5 with Wazuzu and Rodrico looking well placed to fight this out.

6.Wazuzu  looks well placed here. He beat subsequent winners Sylvester ( 2nd) and Dez ( 3rd) three starts back at Trentham over 2100m coming from last. Then next up was too good again when travelling well all the way. Last start ran a very close third after working to get handy on the turn, leading and got nailed in the probably the slower ground by Sylvester wider out. He rated a career best FR of 111 then too. And needs to rate 109 to win this.  In this, with the decent tempo likely, Rosie can just track into it and with the nice weight advantage over his main dangers looks the one to keep out. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Rodrico just didn’t fire at Te Rapa last start and maybe he just doesn’t like that sand flicking back in his face, which you can’t blame him for. Drawn the inside and that means he can secure the trail or even be three back doing nothing and get the last go at them, He was beaten by El Luchador at Tauranga, when he looked terrific. Baker? Forsman will have him spot on for this. RP $3.80, $3.00 FF

4.Waipipi Lad will no doubt try to lead and if left alone, is certainly capable of kicking away and holding on.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

2.Smiling Proud last start looked very fit and healthy and won decisively. he maps to be on the pace and can cross and lead if he pings it. Lisa Allpress will do her best to do that so with him looking so healthy and fit, he will be very hard to peg back with the inside being the place to be. RP $3.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Te Toro Pearl 1st $3.50  has looked good winning her three races. Drawn out and with the inside being the place to be, is too short at $3.60 against handy horses drawn to get better runs. RP $4.80, $3.50 FF

Race 5

The speed map shows New York Minute can lead with a clean beginning and Sleeping Beauty, Temple Tiger

Confidence: 3/5

4.New York Minute 1st $2.80  jumped in the air but soon gathered speed to be handy then dragged the field up to the leader, Rich Billie Marsh. Then led 450m out, was attacked inside and out but was simply too tough. There’s no Rich Billie Marsh this time and with her usual clean beginning, Lisa Allpress can slide over and lead and if the inside is still an advantage, Lisa won’t give that up, so I can’t see other riders taking her on, so there should be plenty in the tank to kick on the bend and with those big nostrils of hers able to suck in the air better than most, she can hold on to win again. RP $2.40, $3.40 FF

Dangers: 

3.Tomelilla 3rd $3 has drawn to get an ideal run in behind the leaders and if they go hard, will be the main danger.

6.Deals In Heels gets a 2kg weight swing in her favour this time against NYM, but needs rain on the day to loosen that track up, plus she has drawn out wide.

8.Art Deco  drops to a better weight this time and goes best here.

Race 6

The speed map shows good early speed from 2-3-7-8 and 9 and if the inside is still ho, then it will be a hot early pace jostling to get to that rail. They may go hard enough to set it up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Lupelani  has been a dominant winner and maps to be 4 back inner, so is going to need a decent tempo, which is likely. If Pinn can weave a way through near the inner, if that is the place to be still, she could do it with that nice weight.

Dangers:

7.Direct Capital  was a close 4th last start and drawn to get a good run near the pace. Very fit which could help in the last 50 metres.

2.Manhattan Street went as well as could be expected in a harder Open handicap last start. Drawn to jump and trail and if the rail is hot still, he will be in the right place to take advantage of it.

8.Straight Sets maps to lead. He went to fast last start and wilted with the outside being the palce to be. This time with Chris Johnson up and an inside bias, and a track he has won twice on before, he could pinch it. RP $10, $16 FF

Other thoughts:

1.Grand Rio would come into it on a loose track. So if rain comes on the day, he is certainly capable of winning. RP $7 on a loose track.

9.Batchelor Babe won a weak race last start and its last 600m was slow compared to similar tempo races.

10.Itsagem  was threatened with the matron’s paddock last start which worked and she won. This is much harder.

6.Brother One saves his best for Wanganui and Trentham. 12 goes for no placings here.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

3.Zeefa Zed ran two good races here then won well third up. Has tactical speed so can get into a good position. RP $5,

Dangers:

14.Foiling fitter now after strong second last start and drawn well with 3kgs off.

8.Beltoy 1st $5.70   two strong races since spelling. Has early speed to get on the pace.

9.Sky Hi Rahtwo good win here three back and with a good run, can win again here with 3kgs off.

10.Triple Diamond looked good winning on debut.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

3.Beau Jeu is a good horse and showed that on a very heavy track last start. Right at his peak. RP $4.20

Dangers:

7.Hard To Be Humble drops back from a harder race and drawn well.

1.Hamiltonian rated strongly last start in a harder R85v field. Won here in August last year with Lisa up. RP $5

9.Onefortheditch won at this meeting last year and gets in with a good weight.

10.Where Are You  fitter now and right in this with a decent run.

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

8.Hapi Ella 3rd $1.40   drawn ideally to get the last go at the favourite. RP $4.50

Dangers:

1.Nirvana In Fire 1st $1.80  won’t get a better chance to win another race.

2.Heavenly Emperor 2nd $1.70  drawn to get every chance after an impressive trial win.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Luck Of Master 3rd $1.40 and was the lay of the day at $2.40 was winding up nicely here last start but ran out of room. This is easier and looks well placed but the three negatives are he is dropping back in distance, races a bit keenly and has drawn out, so $2.40 FF is too short. RP $3.40, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

11.Heliberry on debut was going well, had to ease 500m out but ran on well late. Drawn better this time. RP $5, $6.80 FF

3.Deucalion has the blinkers going on and fitter now.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Salamanca 1st $3.80 will appreciate the better track after the slog at Trentham. Drawn to get a good run also. RP $3.80, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

5.Resurrect  3rd didn’t get all favours in the straight fresh up and the trainer said it needed the run anyway.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

2.I Walk Alone two good runs and the blinkers go on from a handy draw. RP $4.00

Dangers:

6.One Way Street gets 4kgs off and is ready to fire after a nice trial.

10.Love Me Tender better run second up and from the Baker/Forsman stable

Race 5

The speed map shows Jochen Rindt should be able to lead early with a clean jump. Youwantmore led here last start from a wide draw and was run down for 4th, so may looks for a sit just off Jochen Rindt this time. A Moderate tempo is likely suiting runners in the first six in running.

Confidence:

1.Jochen Rindt is best in front on the rail. Last start here trailed and you could see he wasn’t happy with the sand being flicked back in his face. Drawn inside Youwantmore and with Youwantmore likely to take a sit this time, he can get his way in front and be hard to run down. RP $3.40, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

2.Youwantmore led last start and was taken on well out and ran 4th. This time she may take a sit or sit 2nd outer, and on the heavier track RP $4.50, $5.80 FF

8.Rough Cut  fought on well here for third behind Jochen Rindt beating Youwantmore home getting a good run early and didn’t do much during the race so had every chance. Drawn wide and is going to very likely have to do more work early to get handy or snag.

5.The Kipling Girl got back and closed off well over 1600m here last start. Steps up to a middle distance of 2200m for the first time which is a big ask and her best form is on better surfaces. RP $6, $3.20 FF is too short.

Other thoughts:

9.Summer Warrior maps to get a good run 3 back on the fence but with sand flying back, it is not the ideal place off a moderate tempo.

Race 6

The speed map shows early speed from out wider and an even tempo likely suiting all runners, depending on how the track is playing by this time of day.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Big Ben  3rd $3.70 rated strongly two starts back at Hastings behind Red Sierra who won the Open Handicap next up at Trentham last week. He didn’t handle the slog in the bog at Trentham last start. Gets in on 53kgs which Darren Danis can claim fully. Rates second after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings so the $14 and $4.30 on offer is good value. RP $5, $14 Ff

Dangers:

8.Mauna Kea  was confidently backed to win last start and was too good. Drawn ideally and will get every chance. RP $6, $6 FF

3.Verry Flash  1st $3.80   won well against an easier field last start and drawn out. If the inside is ok still, his wide draw won’t help punters who back it at $3.80 FF RP $7, $3.80 Ff

1.Worthhisweightingold looked in need of the run last start fresh up and goes well second up. Drawn to get all favours. RP $7.50, $11.50 Ff

Other thoughts:

11.Artiste did well last start when 3 wide in the open and held on for third. With a better run likely, and with cover, she will be coming hard. RP $8, $9 FF

2.Pasabahce  just won here last start against her own sex. This is harder and drawn out.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

3.Athletica won well fresh up last campaign. Looked good driving through the middle to win his trial. Ready to fire fresh.

Dangers:

4.Braavos  drawn to get a good run and be right in this.

6.Air Centre racing well and gets 4kgs off this time.

8.Cancellara fought well in the slow lane last start.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!