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Wednesday selections below

Highlights were bet of the day English Gambler $1.90 into $1.50 being too good and Sure Bet $3.10 winning stylishly

Tauranga August 1st 2018

Track Heavy 11 Rail out 5m. At this meeting last year the rail was out 5.5m and the area 4 widths or more off the rail was where most of the winners came.

I walked the track Tuesday afternoon and I can see a similar pattern to last year. The area 4 to 8 widths off the fence is consistently better than either side of it.

From the Pick 6 syndicate, the remaining $192 is on a multi today to $7,400 It is pasted below: $192 to return $7399.60

NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 12:44 M2 R1 TAURANGA RACES 1400m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt211)
$2.40 So Wicked (4)56.5
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 13:19 M2 R2 TAURANGA RACES 1600m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt212)
$1.90 English Gambler (11)58.5
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 13:54 M2 R3 TAURANGA RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt213)
$3.25 Sure Bet (3)55
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 14:29 M2 R4 TAURANGA RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt214)
$2.60 Justacanta

Suggested quaddie for $10 for 20%

Leg 1: 1. Justacanta
Leg 2: 5. Charlie Runkle
13. Our Wonderland
14. Bobby Dazzler
Leg 3: 2. Vincentius
3. Sun Genes
5. Rodmar
9. Falkirk Lass
Leg 4: 1. He’s Unforgettable
4. Artiste
6. Divine Duke
8. St Saturnin

Bet of the day Race 2 1.English Gambler $1.90 FF 1st $1.50

Value bet of the Day Race 6 2.Vincentius $4.80 FF 2nd $2.60 

Multi of the Day Race 1 7.So Wicked $2.40 FF Race 2 1.English Gambler $1.90 FF

$1k from $10 bet is below: $10 to return  $1849

NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 12:44 M2 R1 TAURANGA RACES 1400m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt211)
$2.40 So Wicked (4)56.5
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 13:19 M2 R2 TAURANGA RACES 1600m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt212)
$1.90 English Gambler (11)58.5
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 13:54 M2 R3 TAURANGA RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt213)
$3.25 Sure Bet (3)55
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 14:29 M2 R4 TAURANGA RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt214)
$2.60 Justacanta (1)60
NZ Racing 01 Aug 2018 15:39 M2 R6 TAURANGA RACES 1400m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt216)
$4.80 Vincentius (5)58.5

 

Race 1

The speed map shows good early speed from 1-2-3-7-10 and an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

7.So Wicked 2nd $1.20  improved nicely last start to hit the line hard in the slower ground. She’s out of a 6 win mare, So pristine, who was good. There looks to be good speed in the race and she should get the last shot at them and is peaking third up. She is Danielle Johnson’s only ride for the day. Trainer Stephen Marsh said, “She didn’t get all favours last start and was probably in the slower ground. The Ear Covers will be coming off for the race and the tongue tie going on. She should get a nice run from that draw and she is definitely the best of my three runners.”

RP $1.90, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

9.Cabochon ran two nice races then had a break. After a break she looked stronger running on well for second in her trial. Drawn wide and is likely tom snag and looks the best quinella chance with So Wicked.

1.Reliable Lad  does things wrong in running like racing too keenly. He has drawn well and if they go at the even tempo that is likely, that will help him settle better. Place chance if he does.

2.Ujumpijuimp 1st $5.90 has raced well in stronger maidens. Drawn to get a nice run.

Race 2

The speed map shows not much early speed and a slow tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 4/5

1.English Gambler  1st $1.50 did well on debut when working hard to get handy and was run down by the smart Back In A Flash and the 4th and 5th horses have won since. Then next up, he worked early in a speed duel then eased out of it. Once he balanced up again, he drove hard late to almost win. Those were both over 1200m. He’s out of a Zabeel mare, Christmas Day, who won third up over 1750m at Mussellbrook in Australia. He strikes a weak field here and Jonathan Riddell should be able to slide forward with the lack of early speed runners and either lead or sit outside it, and looks too good for these. RP $1.50, $1.90 FF

Dangers:

3.Thee Auld Cruiser ran a distant 3rd last start and will be improved, but I can’t see him worrying English Gambler.

2.Gingee  ran on late wide in the better ground last start. The moderate tempo will be against him.

Race 3

The speed map shows 1-3-4-6-8 wanting to go forward with 1 likely to set an even pace suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Sure Bet 1st $3.10  in her last start second up, found the line the best of anything late. Then she was given a few weeks off to mature and ran on strongly late for a close third in her recent trial running 11.98 for her last 200m which compared very well to . She is a big striding filly and has a good action to handle a heavy track. From the good draw with the 54kgs, she looks well placed to get over these fresh up. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

 1.Sheeznoteasy 2nd $1.30 qu $4.40  three starts back led and set an even pace, then drifted off the rail and the winner Savette, snuck through on the rail, proved to be the fast lane, shot away but she put her head down and fought well for second beating two subsequent winners in a good speed rating. Then next up led until the last 30 metres and was swamped for third. She had a few weeks off then started at Matamata last week and was awkwardly away but drove through to lead, and only blew out in the last 100 metres on the holding track. Trainer Jim Pender thought she was the best of his three chances today. “She just blew out last week and the looser track, with the showers forecast, will suit her much better. I expect her to lead and is my best chance of my three runners.”

But I feel Sure Bet, with the even tempo likely, will be too strong over the last 100 metres for her.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows 2-4-8-9 going forward and an even pace likely suiting all runners.  The last time

Confidence:

1.Justacanta is the best Formpro Rated horse in this with a best rating of 107 and handles a heavy track well. He tends to get back and unleash so needs an even tempo which he should get. The small field suits as well. If Coleman can get him out off the fence  out to the better strip 4 to 8 widths out, which he should be able to with gaps opening on the turn, he can get over these. Trainer David Greene said, “This looked a winnable race for him and we decided to go with the experience of Michael Coleman rather than claim. He’s very well and should be hard to beat.”

He needs to rate 104 to win this and has rated that twice and 107 in his last 4 starts. RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

8.Milly Moo with the 4kgs off and coming off a good run last start where she was caught wide and fought hard for second, looks the best value in the race as she is likely to get a nice sit in behind Bewitched and could hold on for second with the light weight and has rated 101 on a wet track.

5.Style By Design won her trial well and ran on nicely for 4th fresh up. gets 4.5kgs off Justacanta and needs to improve her best FR by 2 points on her career best to win this, so looks covered by Justacanta.

2.Fortune Patch rated 105 four starts back in a strong R75 field but has had plenty of chances to win races in his last 14 starts, so hard to back with any confidence. 

6.Cameahotfriday 1st $4.30  got up late against a weak field last start and needs to improve 4 points on his best ever FR to win this.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Charlie Runkle 3rd $1.50  looked good winning his trial when 1×1 and drew away to ease down late. He’s had time to strengthen up and a heavy track should be ok. RP $4.00

Dangers:

13.Our Wonderland  is ready to fire fresh after a close 2nd in her trial and should get a nice run outside the leader and get out wider to the better ground and be the one Charlie has to run down.

14.Bobby Dazzler 1st $8.40 has drawn the rail which was  concern of trainer Stephen Marsh when I spoke to him. He was very happy with him going into his however. It was a very nice run for second in his trial.

 

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Vincentius  2nd just $2.60  two starts back won strongly drawing away in a good speed rating when allowed to relax on the pace. Then last start he drew wide and had to work wide to get into the 1×1 800m out on a solid tempo ( 1.45 seconds quicker to the 600m mark than the previous race over the same ground ) , and tired in the deep bog. Trainer Brian Hedley said, “He has really come through that run well. He worked terrifically on Saturday and that was a tough run last start and he may not have backed up as well. Darren claims 3kgs so with a good sit, I’m confident of a much better run. I normally sell my horses but I’ve kept him as I think he is going to do well.”

Dangers:

5.Rodmar won here fresh up with the blinkers on last August on a heavy 11 track with no trial. This time she had a quiet trial, with no blinkers. The blinkers go back on today, so she looks a realistic chance.

9.Falkirk Lass  ran a good third here last start and with a good run with cover, should be in this.

3.Sun Genes has the blinkers going on which will suit.

1.Inca Warrior 1st $4.20 is a $4.20 FF favourite but 1400m seems to find him out so with topweight, he is beatable.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence:

4.Artiste from the Baker/ Forsman stable, gets back up to a middle distance and should be right in this with the even tempo likely. Troy Harris won on her at Avondale and gets back on. RP $4

Dangers:

8.St Saturnin 2nd $3.10 qu $21 in both of his first two runs back after a break he has found the line well over 1600m. He ran second in a Kiwifruit Cup here two years ago on a  heavy track and won an R65. He gets 3kgs off here and despite almost getting the pension, he could do it third up. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments.

6.Divine Duke 1st $5.10   did well last start when clipping heels and losing 3 lengths but came back for second. Gets a decent 4kgs off his back.

1.He’s Unforgettable won well two back and rated well behind Divine Duke last start.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!