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Thursday selections posted below

Egmont at Hawera

Track Heavy 11 rail true

Last meeting here in June it was a heavy 10 with the rail also true.

The seven winners came from:

R1: 7th inr,4th tn,led 200,too gd Barrier 1 ( Won 2 off inside )

R2: 6th otr, wdr tn, pounced 250,too gd Barrier 10 ( Won 5 off inside )

R3 6th otr,up wdr tn, led 200, easy Barrier 9 ( Won 5 off inside )

R4: 5th otr,swept to ld tn,kikd, easy Barrier 8 ( Won 7 off inside )

R5: Awk,2nd outr,cruisd to ld tn,easy Barrier 4 ( Won 5 off inside )

R6 8th otr,4th tn,chal 100,drove best Barrier 8 ( Won 8 off inside )

Race 7: 9th inr,closr tn,well timed bid Barrier 11 ( Won 5 off inside )

So no leaders won and you had to be out 5 wide in the straight after the first race to win.

 

Bet of the Day Race 4 4.Big Ben $3.60 FF

Value bet of the Day Race 2 8.She’s Got The Look $4 FF

Sneaky of the day Race 6 9.Justa Small Ransom $9.80 FF 3rd $3.10 

Multi of the Day Big Ben and She’s Got The Look $144 for every $10

$1k for $10 Big Ben and She’s Got The Look and Justa Small Ransom to return $1411

Suggested quaddie $10 for 10%

Leg 1: 4. Big Ben
Leg 2: 1. Tipla
2. Stroke Of Luck
3. Herengawe
4. Yes Boy
6. Karima
7. Candy Cross
Leg 3: 5. Dragon Dancer
7. Swiss Angel
8. Do Ya
9. Justa Small Ransom
Leg 4: 3. The Huntsman
5. Grinner
6. Mr Cool Boy
10. Wonder Lass

 

Race 1

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

4.Brassy Boy  1st $3.40 looked good winning his last trial when squeezed well back just after jumping, but worked through to 4th 600m out and with his head down, drove home wide out to win well. He’s had a few trials and is a natural staying type. Fraser Auret will have him ready to win first up over ground as he usually gives them one or two races before stepping them over more ground. He has an ideal wet track action too. RP $3.60, $3.70 Ff

Dangers:

1.Grand Rex  drawn to get every chance and the 2kgs off helps.

7.Black Anasta looks a place chance in a weak field.

Race 2

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

8.She’s Got The Look did well last start when outfinished late by Full Swing who got to the faster lane out wider. Big horse who will be fitter for that and peaking now. Maps to get the right run off the fence and gets 4kgs off Our Milo which has a ? over his fitness for this. RP $3.40, $4 FF

 

Dangers:

1.Our Milo on debut put in a top effort when back wide in the open and got out wide to charge home for third. Then may have been a bit flat second up but still went well when caught wide again. J Parkes jumps on and strikes a weak field. He had a muscle problem after that last start so may just need this

3.Benson  went well enough last campaign to include in trifectas.

10.Beckidboo  will have had some invisible jumpouts and gets 3kgs off. Nicely bred out of 5 win mare Yeshi Shinko but drawn 2 which may not help.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

5.Ariana ran a good second to Charlie Horse last start who won easily next up. Fitter now and if the inside is ok, she looks well placed with 3kgs off this time. And she will feel it to as she drops from 66kgs to 53.5kgs.

Dangers:

2.Stevie’s Surprise has had a few goes and was a bit stiff last start when going well and was held up. Chris Johnson suits him and from the better draw, can be on the pace and strikes the right field now.

7.Roschana strong finishing second here on debut and fitter for it.

8.Foiling 1st $4 also drawn near the fence but it was a good 2nd two back.

6.Jayperno drawn out which could be the advantage to win the race.

Race 4

The speed map shows

Confidence: 3/5

4.Big Ben rated strongly when he rated an FR of 102 last start but was 3 wide in the open all the way and only just went down for second in a stronger field than this. You could add 3 points to that after the run he got to adjust to 105. He rated 106 when 3rd at Ellerslie on a heavy track in an R85 race behind No Need and Deluxe Edition which won last weekend. He gets 3kgs off here which puts him clearly on top after weight adjustments. Last time he started here he ran third behind Rodrico and Effectav who have both won since. He’s drawn 2 which means Zinjete is going to have to try and get him away from the inside to get wider in the straight. RP $$3.50, $3.60Ff it would have been a lower rating if he had drawn wide.

Dangers:

6.Manua Kea  1st $3.40   ran 5th behind Ben last start with a better run. Meets him on similar weight terms so hard to see him turning the tables. Except that he appeared to not like that sand being tossed back at him. He won well here and has gone well in between. Looks the only danger and worth saving on.

9.Lecto Divinia beat Big Ben on a heavy 11 with a 6kg advantage last season but only gets 1 kg advantage this time as Danielle rides at 54kgs so can’t claim.

Race 5

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

1.Tipla 1st $2.90 good run for third on debut. Has trialled well since and ran home well for second in his last trial. Looks to be a nice galloper too. RP $4

Dangers:

7.Candy Cross  was close up fresh up in a handy field.

6.Karima put in a big finish here fresh up for 4th and then looked like she needed more ground last start when battling over 1200m for third. 1400m suits now.

3.Herengawe beat Merlot in his trial who won well first up. Drawn the inside though.

4.Yes Boy in his trial led ,came wide and wasn’t pushed to run a nice third. Ready to go.

2.Stroke of Luck raced too keenly amongst others when restrained last start. Interesting that the blinkers go on so they may allow him to slide to the lead and see if he settles better in front away from others.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.Justa Small Ransom 3rd $3.10  looked good winning fresh up at Wanganui and also ran a strong and a bit unlucky 4th fresh up there again four starts back. Only battled next three starts, but has been freshened up and the side winkers go back on which she had when she won fresh up. Drawn 3 so Danielle will need to give her a good ride to get out from the inside but looks a decent eachway chance in a weak field. RP $4.60, $9.80 Ff

Dangers:

7.Swiss Angel led all the way to win her trail easily recently. The Blinkers stay on and she is ready to win fresh up.

8.Do Ya  solid second last start and gets in on a good weight with the 2kgs off.

5.Dragon Dancer  solid third two back when finishing well in the slower lane at Wanganui. No chance last start after getting back and wide.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

10.Wonder Lass won very well two back when stepping to a middle distance. Caught wide in the open in the slow lane last start and tired. Gets in on a winning weight.

Dangers:

5.Grinner  ran on the best of anything last start at New Plymouth out wide in the slower stuff. Gets 3kgs off again and fitter. Good third here when third in the slower inner ground behind The Huntsman.

3.The Huntsman 1st $7.50 won well here two back and did best late last start when a  drifter in the market from the Myers stable. Back here with 2kgs off is ideal.

6.Mr Cool Boy  fitter now and drawn wide which could be a plus.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!