Saturday 4 August preview below

 

Highlights were the $1858 Te Rapa Quaddie with Black Lace ($21 )

Value bet of the Day Stradivarius being well rated in front $4.30

So Much Mour $8.40 

As for Riccarton, the bookies won there I think!

 

 Heads Up Below with a review of the last 2 weeks, a preview of the two big races at Riccarton, The Money Shot’s sports multi of the weekend, plus a chance to win one months free sub to Formpro.

Good morning,

Some very good racing today with a few nicely placed horses detailed below. I’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the day Riccarton Race 2 1.Fire Show $2.40 FF Missed – lame

Value bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 2 6.Stradivarius $5 FF 1st $4.30 

Speed Map Special Te Rapa Race 5 9.Direct Capital $26 and $6 FF 5th after having the chance to lead but took a sit for some reason

Sneaky of the Day Riccarton Race 8 14.Strolling Vagabond $18 and $5.50 FF fair 6th after getting her chance and looking likely on the turn.

Other 3/5 confidence bets or better

Te Rapa Race 3 3.Von Trapp $2.80 FF 2nd after getting fairly relegated

Riccarton Race 9 1.Hand It To Jonesy $2.90 FF Missed the jump- got back and battled

Riccarton Race 10 1.Centre Attention $5.80 FF led and fought well for 3rd $2.10

The Money Shot’s two best Sports bets are: Tonight 9.55 p.m.  Melbourne Storm -2.5 $1.87 Missed and Saturday night Crusaders -18.5 points $1.87 Yes

Multi of the Day Fire Show $2.40 FF into Von Trapp $67.20 for every $10

$1k for $10 multi Fire Show $2.40 FF into Von Trapp $2.80 into Hand It To Jonesy $2.90 FF into Stradivarius $5 $974 for $10 

Suggested quaddies:

Te Rapa $20 for 7% Yes $1858

Leg 1:	4. Impulsive Habit 9. Direct Capital 10. Igraine 11. Sound Works
Leg 2:	1. Close Up 2. Julius 3. Southern Icon 7. Contessa Vanessa
Leg 3:	2. Simply Impeccable 3. So Much Mour 4. Time To Fly 6. Le Brassus
Leg 4:	6. Firenze 9. Pearlescence 12. Century Miss 14. Black Lace

Riccarton $20 for 31% Not even close!

Leg 1:	1. Omar 2. Jamie 3. Middagurd 6. Saronic Miss
Leg 2:	10. She’s Poppy 14. Strolling Vagabond 15. Dez 18. Red Sierra
Leg 3:	1. Hand It To Jonesy
Leg 4:	1. Centre Attention 2. O’Kiwi 5. Rock Island Line 10. Ave Maria

 

Te Rapa

I’ve been speaking to a few trainers recently who have had runners racing at Te Rapa, and most have said their runners have been effected by the sand coming back in their horses faces and putting them off doing their best. So the obvious place to be is in the lead or second outer. So I’ve concentrated on finding those runners who should get their own way in front and have the ability to hold on and win.

Race 1

The speed map shows 2 and 1 likely to share a moderate tempo suiting on-pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Youwantmore 3rd has been racing well against better fields. Gets in here with 3kgs off and should lead or sit outside Call Me Royal and get every chance. Any rain will only help.

Dangers:

5.Beaufighter looks set to peak now and gets in on a good weight too.

1.Call Me Royal 1st $5.70 could lead and get a soft time and be hard to run down.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows Stradivarius sliding over to lead with Temple Tiger trailing a moderate tempo, suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Stradivarius 1st $4.30 with a good ride was run down late by the smart Hello M’Lady last week only getting 1kg off her. This time he drops to 52.5kgs and should beat Temple Tiger with the 2kg advantage over him last time they met here when he finished 0.3l behind him. With 2kg per length at 1400m that says he can reverse that this time, especially if the inside is ok with the rail out 10 metres. RP $3.40, $5 FF

Dangers:

3.Temple Tiger will look to trail Stradivarius and nail him late.

2.Roc De Bank  with 4kgs off and fitter now, should get every chance to be in it.

1.Bee Tee Junior fresh up will be finding the line the best of anything but the likely moderate tempo will be against him.

Race 3

The speed map shows good early speed from at least 7 runners so a good pace early and wide runners are likely to look to get in with cover as Von Trapp is likely to get 2nd outer or lead. An even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Von Trapp  2nd after winning and fairly being relegated. was very impressive winning his trials and debut at Ruakaka in the fastest speed rating all day and rated 98 in the Formpro Ratings which is very good for a 2yo on debut. There are three runners inside him that have early speed but if he begins like he has been, he should be able to lead or get 2nd outer. There is speed out wider so he may just slide to the lead if 2nd outer and they can sit outside him e.g. Cyber Attack. He relaxes well and has a very good stride on him. a slow or heavy 10 track should be ok as he handled those well in his trials. I can’t see going left handed being a problem to him so he should be able to kick on these again and be too good.   RP $2.00, $2.60, opened $2.80 FF

Dangers:

There are some nice horses that will be right there if he does anything wrong though.

5.Lord Arthur  looked good in his trial leading and beating Bobby Dazzler who won well on Wednesday at Tauranga. Well bred ( Half brother to Bonneval ) and from the Baker/Forsman stable. Could lead or trail and get every chance.

1.Cyber Attack  got a soft sit 2nd outer here last start and was too good. May get caught wide from the 7 draw but if he gets in or gets to 2nd outer again, he should be in this.

4.Royal Patch  did well on debut after getting back and running on well in the slower ground. Trialled well before that jumping and trailing and driving through to win.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

5.Van Diamond  3rd $2.10   did very well here last start when caught 3 wide in the open, moved up on the turn and led, but was outfinished only late. He has to improve off that as well. Drawn out again but if he can get cover this time, he does look the one to beat. RP $4.00,

Dangers:

1.Hunua Hank  closed off hard last start and drawn to settle handier.

2.Zenntari  ran a top 2nd on debut behind Vincentius who almost won on Wednesday again. Slow away second up and ran on well. 1600m suits.

11.Wilbermere  ran on strongly late last start here and if they go hard, and the sand doesn’t upset her, she can be in this.

Race 5

The speed map shows good speed from 2-5-8-9-10 with an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5 in a race where Direct Capital should get a soft lead or sit outside it.

9.Direct Capital two starts back was caught wide on the pace over 1550m on a heavy track and kept finding for a close 4th rating a Formpro Rating of 106. The form has been very strong out of that race too with Dez and a few others winning since. Then next up he began well but others kicked up inside him to find the better going on the fence so he snagged to 4th inner, but they moved midrace and he ended up 3 back inner. Of the 4 x 1400m races there, his was the slowest to the 600m mark. They sprinted on the bend and he battled on well for fourth so it was probably the best he could do giving weight to the winner and third horse. This time he maps to lead and is unlikely to be taken on so away from the sand being flicked back in his face, he can kick on these on the turn and is a chance to hold on at good odds. Rider Tony Allan is confident he can be hard to beat. “There is a lack of early speed in the race and he jumps well, so I’ll look to lead or sit outside the leader, maybe Sound Works, and based on his run at Awapuni in a very strong field, he is going to be hard to run down.RP $9, $26 and $6 FF

Dangers:

4.Impulsive Habit  ran a game second here two back beating Manua Kea who won well on Thursday. Drawn to get a good trip and any rain ok.

11.Sound Works steps to 1600m for the first time and has been hitting the line well. Drawn to get a cosy trip and could do it.

10.Igraine  1st $3.30  won well fresh up and with a good ride from the wide draw, could do it again.

 

Race 6

The speed map shows early speed from 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 so good early speed with maybe Southern Icon looking to push forward if he jumps well wide out and get 2nd outer or lead.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Julius 1st $1.60  is a big strong horse and will be able to carry the 59.5kgs no trouble. He will obviously improve with the run. From the inside draw, he can trail and get every chance, so as long as the inside is ok, he can win fresh up.

Dangers:

7.Contessa Vanessa  3rd $1.50  just jumps, puts herself in the race and keeps trying. If she can slot in one off, she is weighted to be right in this.

3.Southern Icon  is suited by the wider draw as he tends to dwell abit early then gather speed quickly, so being out widest will help him not get blocked early. 1200m will suit now.

1.Close Up  is a good horse but will obviously need it and with the weight disadvantage, is a place chance.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

3.So Much Mour  1st $8.40 has rated strongly in similar strength fields. Had a respiratory infection last start and with that sorted out, he can land on the pace and be hard to run down. RP $4.50

Dangers:

4.Time To Fly won well here outside a good tempo last start. Drawn to lead with a good beginning.

5.Tryfan beat the impressive next up winner, English Gambler, last start. Gets 3kgs off.

6.Le Brassus ran 2nd to Malambo here last year and won well fresh up. No go in the bog last start. 3kgs off.

 

 

Race 8

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

9.Pearlescence looked set to strike form last start but got back and plugged with the hot bias to the fence. Back here on a better surface, she looks a nice eachway  chance from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $5.00, $8.80

Dangers:

12.Century Miss was caught in the slower ground last start. Is capable of winning this if right.

14.Black Lace 1st $21 quad $1858 rated well last start in a stronger R75 field and needs more ground now.

6.Firenze flew home last start and has won a trial since.

Riccarton

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

3.Laekeeper  1st $3.40  won very easily two back over hurdles and ran on well in a good flat race last start. The one to beat with 3kgs of The Shackler. RP $3.50

Dangers:

1.The Shackler  is a very good hurdler with a very good rider in Aaron Kuru. The obvious danger.

6.Guy Fox  will be grinding home for a place.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

1.Fire Show missed – lame looked impressive at the trials and was just as good on debut when pinging to the lead and was drawing away from Miss Maxipark late when given a few behind the saddle. Strong galloper who looks a definite improver as well. RP $1.90, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

4.Miss Maxipark had her chance to beat Fire Show last start and struggled. Fire Show will have improved more as well and with only a 1.5kgs swing that should not be enough to beat him.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

3.Manhattan Street 3rd $2  strong second last start and needs a strong rider like Jonathan Riddell. Should get a good trip. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

9.Upperhand 2nd $1.70  is ready to fire fresh.

2.Kensington  is better than his recent form and a better track will suit.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

2.Delacroix ran a game second behind the good chaser Tai Ho last start. Must be the one to beat base3d on that. RP $4

Dangers:

10.Mandalay  with Aaon Kuru up will be hardest for him to beat.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.The Big Opal 3rd $1.60  is going for a hat trick of wins in this race after winning it by 9 and 5 lengths the last two years and on the better surface, will get every chance of leading and he jumps well ( 7 wins from 14 starts over steeples), so can win. RP $2.70, $3.30 Ff

Dangers:

1.Wise Men Say is carrying a very good horse’s weight of 72kgs. His ideal conditions though are a heavy track and more ground, which he is likely to get at least one of next week!

2.Amanood Lad 1st $9 always gives his best and is a place chance behind the other two.

5.Chocolate Fish  2nd $1.60 will be finding the line well.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Salamanca  2nd  $2.20 qu $4.30 won well last start and is back to his best. gets in with a nice weight and should get every chance near the pace. RP $3.60, $4

Dangers:

1.Scapolo 1st $2.60 looks the main danger but is beatable against race fit horses.

Race 7 

Confidence: 1/5

6.Saronic Miss is ready to strike after an unlucky run last start. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Jamie drawn to get every chance with Lisa Allpress up.

1.Omar  with the 2kgs off from the good draw, is well placed.

3.Middagurd is ready to fire after a nice 2nd in his trial.

Race 8

The speed map shows speed from inside, midfield and wider so the pace will be on early and with the big field, and a moderate to even tempo is likely suiting all runners. Plus there may be a bias to on pace runners.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

14.Strolling Vagabond  beat home Rodrico who came out and won the big race at Rotorua last Saturday. Last start with the blinkers going on and she rated a career best Formpro Rating of 109. Maps to get out from the handy draw and get a good trip, and with the favoured runners all drawing wide, they will need everything to go their way. She will be doing nothing near the pace and with the 53kgs with in-form Bridget Grylls on board, is a realistic chance at good odds. RP $8, $18 Ff

Dangers:

 

10.She’s Poppy 2nd $2.50  last start at Wanganui almost won at WFA rating 112 in the Formpro Ratings, a career best. Raymond Connors obviously decided to freshened her up and aim for this with the nice weight of 55kgs. The combination of freshening a horse off a career best for a race it has obviously been set for, is always a very strong one. Plus, she has often run the fastest last 200 metres, or close to it, on many wet tracks. She maps to get back here but with the good tempo likely, Shaun McKay just needs to get her into clear air 400m out and she can unleash that powerful finishing burst and looks the main danger.

15.Dez has that will to win and is still learning the game. But he just looks to have that X-Factor so he could blow these away if Lisa Allpress can give him the right trip. Those of us the double figure Futures odds will be hoping so anyway!

18.Red Sierra  has been too strong to the line over shorter distances. 1600m is a query but based on her wins this campaign, she is stronger and has the weight to be in it.

Race 9

The speed map shows

Confidence: 3/5

1.Hand It To Jonesy rates 5 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments based on his last start game second to Dez last start. S 3kgs off and looks very well placed. Only negative is the wide draw but as long as the rider can slot in 3 wide with cover, he should still be too good for these. RP $2.00, $3 FF

Dangers:

6.Smiling Assassin is in very strong form and is the main danger.

3.Peso probably wants the rain to slow the others down.

 

Race 10

 Confidence: 3/5

1.Centre Attention  3rd $2.10  did well to win three starts back when leading all the way over 2040m at Wanganui in this grade. Last start over 1800m he set a good pace and was run down by Cape De Jeu who won well next up. Last October in a $40k R65 race at Hastings on a Dead 5 track he led and was a close third to the smart Sheridan. He maps to lead here again and with Tina Comignaghi being such a good on pace rider, he can put the pressure on before the turn and if the inside is still ok, get a winning break and win. RP $4.00, $5.80 FF

Dangers:

2.O’Kiwi  is ready to win-wide draw is a negative though.

5.Rock Island Line  had to do a bit of extra work early and battled the last bit.

10.Ave Maria beat home Centre Attention last start. Will get back and need luck though this time.