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Wednesday preview below

Good morning,

As we saw on Saturday, the bookies love Riccarton. So tread carefully. There are two horses that I like there detailed below.

Bet of the Day Race 6 3.King Cougar $1.90 FF Opened $2.30 FF 1st $2

Value bet of the day Race 2 1.By Magic $5.80 FF  2nd $2.20

The other Good confidence bet is racing in Sydney

Race 4 8.Metamorphic $4 FF 1st $2.20

Multi of the day

By Magic into King Cougar

$1k from $10 multi By Magic into King Cougar into Metamorphic $10 returns $452 so take $23 as there is nothing else I can put in with confidence.

Suggested quaddie:

$20 for 10%

Leg 1: 1. Bogatyr
2. Quaff
6. Itstolate
Leg 2: 1. Zedeedudadeeko
2. Laekeeper
5. Jackfrost
8. Kiddo
Leg 3: 1. Hurry Cane
5. Iceberg Rock
10. Mahana
12. Queen El Jay
Leg 4: 4. Locally Sauced
7. The Man
9. Wazuzu
10. Peso

 

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

1.Black Magic top run here two back in best SR of distance – needed 1600m then. Last start used up early to get 2nd outer over 1400m, came wider on the turn, while the winner scooted up the fast inside lane. He was coming back again for second. 1600m ideal from the inside draw. There looks to be good early speed from 1-5-7-12 and he does look a better chaser so a nice sit 3 back on the fence looks ideal, and from there looks hard to beat. RP $3.40, $5.80 FF

2.Hatrick Boys ran a close second to She’s Fun last start. He is a bit one paced and his dam won her only race over 2170m. So second up over 1600m she is too short at $2.70

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Moyrabella should get all favours and fights like a tiger, so looks the one with 2kgs off. RP $3.40, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

7.Tuilana if they go had can swamp them.

Race 5

11.I’llav Bubbles from the good draw,  if he can repeat that effort from Saturday, looks an ew chance.

Dangers:

6.Magic Ivan can win if they go hard enough which they usually do in these races.

10.Ave Maria  good finish on Saturday but will need luck.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

3.King Cougar looks very well placed here. He bolted in two back from the 1×1 beating a good field. The last start, trainer Mike Breslin was concerned about the big weight on the very testing track, but ran an enormous race after sitting wide on a fast tempo, and still almost won. This time, on a better track, where he maps to get a good run behind an even tempo at least, J Parkes can pick his time when to let him go down that long straight and he should prove too good for these. r Mike Breslin said, ” He missed a jumpout before that last run and I felt it may have showed late. He’s come through it better than he ever has. He went down last week and is very well so I expect a very good run with Jonathan ( Parkes) likely to just sit off the speed, maybe in the 1×1 and be hard to beat from there.”  $1.80, $2.30 Ff

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

1.Bogatyr has run some good placings and with a good run can break through. RP $4.50, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Quaff will be finding the line hard.

6.Itstolate has run two strong second here and with a good run, this may be its day.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race over the 4200m

5.Jackfrost – I like how he came at Laekeeper after the last on Saturday. He is very fit and jumps well.

1.Zedeedidadeeko bolted in at Trentham- best conditions would be a real bog but unlikely to get that.

8.Kiddo  ran 4th in this last year and will be set to improve on that.

1.Lae Keeper is going great but 4200m is a different story.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

12.Queen El Jay  will appreciate the 200m now.

1.Hurry Cane fitter after two good runs.

5.Iceberg Rock  needs 2000m now and can upset.

10.Mahana  keeps on trying. 2000m should suit now.

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5

9.Wazuzu will be motoring home late and looks the obvious one.

7.The Man with the claim has to be in it.

4.Locally Sauced won easily last start.

10.Peso  will relish any rain that comes.

 

 

Sydney- Canterbury

Race 4 5.05 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

 8.Metamorphic looks well placed here from the good draw. Closed off strongly late and wide here  in very good closing sectionals when snagging back. This time, James jumps on the Waller trained 5yo and will look to settle him about 5th or 6th. From there he looks the one to beat. RP $3.00, $4 FF

Dangers:

2.So Spirited  ran a game 4th last start in a better field. Drawn out so will need luck. Could be worth saving on.

7.Star In Seas  last start won in good time but doesn’t jump the best and is likely to do more work this time.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!