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Saturday 18 August preview below

Update:

Dal Cielo looks like he has come through that run well from last week. He has been heavily backed. Getting a bit short at $1.75 now so will watch. Hopefully you have him in a multi or two. 1st $1.70 Good positive ride. Closing balance 113.6 units for a net profit of 63.6 units which makes up for last week’s loss.

4.48 p.m.

2.Divine Duke looks rock hard fit and ready to win. The wide draw is going to help if he can just get a track into it and the centre of the track should be the place he will come down. 14 units a win at $3.40 FF and 14 units a win on tote. Gee, I wish they would all win like that! 103.6 units returned. Balance 113.6 units. back for Dal Ciello at 5.50 p.m.

 

3.38 p.m.

10.New York Minute looks nice and fresh and fit. Riders may not want the lead here on the fence which means she may get the lead ok and if she can kick on the bend, while they swing wide, her fitness and guts, could be enough to hold on. 4 units a win on the tote. Two top horses fought it out. Balance 38 units. Back for Divine Duke at 4.48

I’m concerned that Sam O’Malley on Dolcetto may get caught too close to the fence turning in and with the outside being the place to be, $2.10 FF is too short now. Saved our money after he got caught on the inside and ran on ok. Balance still 42 units. Back for New York Minute just before the start.

Sea Star looks very fit and relaxed. Should be able to get a soft sit on the pace and get wider to kick on these and put his head down and get the job done. 4 units win $4.20 FF and 4 units a win on tote. 3rd after having his chance balance 42 units – back for Dolcetto at 3.22

 

1.Dal Ciello is in race 8 at the Gold Coast and looks very well placed over 1200m. he was in front just after the post last week over 1100m behind better horses. He needs a good surface and gets it and drawn to get the right run about 5th or 6th and be too good for these. RP $1.60, $2.05 FF

Multi of the day is Dal Ciello $2.05 into Te Rapa Race 8 2.Divine Duke $3 Ff  Yes

$1k multi for $10 is $1082

NZ Racing 18 Aug 2018 15:40 M2 R6 TE RAPA RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt206)
$5.00 New York Minute (3)56.5
NZ Racing 18 Aug 2018 16:50 M2 R8 TE RAPA RACES 2100m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt208)
$3.00 Divine Duke (11)60
NZ Racing 18 Aug 2018 15:24 M4 R5 WAVERLEY RACES 1400m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt405)
$2.20 Dolcetto (5)60.5
Australian Racing 18 Aug 2018 17:52 M14 R8 GOLD COAST RACES 1200m
Final Fld Win Deductions Apply (Opt148)
$2.05 Dal Cielo (2)59
NZ Racing 18 Aug 2018 14:51 M4 R4 WAVERLEY RACES 1400m
Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1404)
$1.60 Sea Star

 

Suggested quaddie $11.20 for 10%

Leg 1: 4. Imblaze
5. Ohceedee
6. So Much Mour
7. Gris Dame
Leg 2: 2. Start Wondering
3. Close Up
6. Julius
9. Underthemoonlight
10. New York Minute
11. Francaletta
13. Melody Belle
Leg 3: 1. Aligns With Me
2. Bobby Dazzler
4. Nuttee
8. Milly Moo
Leg 4: 2. Divine Duke

 

Te Rapa

It is really unfortunate with the sand kickback at Te Rapa. Many horses are affected by it so you just can’t back anything with confidence other than horses that lead or get 2nd outer. New York Minute is very likely to lead now with John Bell saying he would rather see Julius get cover this time. So you can see why she has come in from $6 FF to $4.80 FF

The Money Shot’s best two sports bets are:

Friday night 8 p.m. Option 2066 Gold Coast +6.5 $1.87 Yes easily covered after winning 42-34 and in The Rugby Test Saturday night, Australia + 12.5 $1.87

 

Main bets are below and will be update by noon and also 2 minutes before the race and a bank of 50 units will be used for suggested bets based on how the track is playing, market movements and how the horse and its main rivals look.

Bet of the day  Te Rapa race 8 2.Divine Duke $3 FF

Value bet of the Day  Waverley Race 4 7.Sea Star $4.20 FF

Speed Map Special Te Rapa Race 6 10.New York Minute $4.80 FF

Sneaky of the Day Te Rapa Race 3 7.Trueman $5.80 FF

Other Good confidence bets:

Waverley Race 5 2.Dolcetto $2.60 FF

 

Race 1

The speed map shows despite the small field, there are four runners who will look to either lead or be on it, so an even tempo likely suiting all runners. Update with the scratching of Woodsman should allow Jochen Rindt leading and be harder to beat.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Athena Baby rated a career best rating here when winning well last start. Troy Harris made it into a true staying test when moving early when bolting so got up 3 wide 600m out, kicked on them 300m out and just kept going. That was just his second run over ground and there looks to be a nice tempo up front which will allow Danielle to move into it at the right time and he does look well placed to do it again. John Bell said, “He’s fit and we’ve trained him for middle distance racing and Danielle could make the weight so we went with her.” Negative is he will get sand kick back but it didn’t seem to bother him last time here and the small field will help. RP $3.2, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

4.Jochen Rindt ran a game third to Rodrico at Rotorua and drops to 51kgs which he will certainly notice. If he can  lead on the rail, and he should be able to now with Woodsman out, which will suit him best, getting first use of the track means he could kick and be the one to run down.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows Tweddledee should lead and a moderate tempo is likely, suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence: 2/5

2.My Gift  fresh up ran on well for third over 1200m with 59kgs. Then second up here in an R82 race, kept closing and hit the line well for a 1.9L 6th over 1400m rating an FR of 103. He drops back to R65 class and with the 3kgs off, needs to rate around 99 to win this which he has beaten in both his first two runs. The step to 1600m suits and he is fitter, so with a good run about 5th or 6th, he can run these down. RP $3.60, $4 FF

Dangers:

3.Tweedledee maps to lead and get a soft one. Gets 4kgs off and is the one My Gift has to run down.

1.De Gaulle with Matt Cameron up can get into it.

8.The Auld Cougar won well second up and ran a nice 4th next up after doing extra work.  Stephen Marsh said ” I think she has to be a definite ew chance.”

Race 3

The speed map shows good early speed with 1-2-3-5-6 all looking to jump and go forward.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Trueman  sat 2nd outer here last start and after leading 200m out was run down by the smart Igraine. He carried 59kgs then and he drops to 54.5kgs after going up in class, which is the lightest weight he has ever carried by 2kgs in his career. He rated 106 last start and needs to rate a length better at 107 to win this. Being fifth up and fitter, and where he maps to get a nice run about 5th or 6th with the good early speed around him, he can get a drag into it, challenge them around 200m out and with his size and strength, along with that light weight, lead and be very hard to run down. Negative is the kickback though. RP $4.60, $5.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Waipipi Lad missed the start last week and did work to get round and lead. Did well to fight back for a close third behind a smart one. With a better beginning this time from the inside gate, he could lead, and if left alone, could prove hard to run down.

2.He’s Cavalier  fought well for third alongside Waipipi Lad last start and drawn to get a good run.

1.Roc de Bank  keeps on going well enough to get you interested. Drawn wide with a 4kg claimer on so needs a good ride.

4.Grand Rio battled on ok here last start but will cop the kickback. Andrew Forsman said,” 1400m was too sharp for him and he does race well here. Pretty confident with him stepping up to the mile.”

Race 5

The speed map shows Imblaze and So Much Mour to share the pace early with Staccato likely to get 2nd outer and moderate tempo likely suiting the first few runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Imblaze  is a tough mare and been well placed to get her wins. Drawn to lead or sit outside it on a moderate tempo. She can kick on these and with the weight advantage and the tempo suiting her, she can hold on again. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

6.So Much Mour  had a problem after his run at Avondale but overcame that to win well here last start. Up In class but drawn to get a good run, maybe in the lead, which will be the place to be. Up in class but can only improve off that last run here.

5.Ohceedee was caught 3 wide in the open off a slow tempo last start and stuck on well for second to a smart one. Matt Cameron will suit him and with the right run can do it.

7.Gris Dame is a nice mare and ran a nice 2nd in her trial. Gets back though so the kickback will be an issue.

1.Felaar trainer Stephen Marsh said,  ” He’s just starting to mature now. Could not fault the way he has come back. He’ll hit the line nicely. Maybe just watch him this Saturday but don’t leave him out just in case.” He will get back and with the moderate tempo and kickback, he is no $3 chance.

Race 6

The speed map shows eight runners from inside and out that will look to go forward, which will ensure a strong first 200 metres and an even tempo once settled suiting all runners. The track at the last meeting here when the rail was true, favoured runners away from the rail.

Confidence: 2/5 in a strong Group 2 field. I’ve changed my main selection to New York Minute after seeing the weather forecast which has 20mm of rain forecast between now,Thursday noon, to Saturday afternoon. Plus, trainer John bell said he was keen for Julius to take a sit and not lead, so that leaves the way clear for a fitter New York Minute to lead and be the one to run down on a slow 9 or worse track.

10.New York Minute has been dominant in her last two WFA wins. Drawn three and that could either be a blessing or a liability as she can miss it by half a length at times and if she does, she will get crossed and end up behind them and go from a $6 chance to a $20 chance. But if she jumps ok and can drive through and lead, with Julius likely to be outside her, and if the inside is ok, she will be the one Julius has to get past. Update Thursday. Julius won’t be leading so that leaves the gate open for her to lead and with her fitness and weight edge, she does look the obvious one now. RP $4, $6 FF into $4.80 FF ( may pay to wait  to see how the track is playing for a decent punt – if inside is ok she can win, if they are coming centre track, she can get beaten.

Dangers:

6.Julius Update – John Bell said he is keen for Julius to take a sit so that leaves it open for New York Minute to drive through and lead and with the weight and fitness advantage, may find her too hjard to get past. is a big strong fella who is very hard to get past. They tried to take him on fresh up here and they came undone and he won well. He has to be improved with that and maps to get into a winning position. Jason Waddell was aware of the kick back here last start so hunted up to keep the lead and it proved a winning decision. So with that same aggressive mindset, I can see him wanting to either lead, if New York Minute misses it slightly or sit outside her and keep anything else three wide regardless of the outside pressure. So from 2nd outer, he should be able angle wider if he needs to, and if they have sit off them, he is an even stronger chance to win. So he does look the best chance. He needs to win or place to get into the Tarzino. RP $3.20, RP $3.70 FF

 3.Close Up good run here fresh up when unsuited by handicap conditions. Ran a solid closing 2nd to Underthemoonlight in this last year. Won 2nd up over 1200m last may over 1200m on a heavy track at Ellerslie. Won the Tarzino (1400m WFA ) last year. Maps to settle back and come wide which will suit if they go hard and be in the right place to strike. RP $6 $7.50 FF

2.Start Wondering maps to get a good run but the inside on a Slow 9 to heavy track isn’t ideal. He may end up leading here if New York Minute doesn’t, and the way he won his first trial, shows he he is fit enough to be right in it.  RP $7, $7.50 FF

 

Other thoughts:

13.Melody Belle  looked good in her trial and had had a jumpout at Taupo with stablemates last week. This race is ideal for her with her 1200m ability, but she was gone 150m out in the Railway on a slow track. Drawn well, but would have been much keener on her if the track was Dead 6 or better. RP $7.50, $6.80 FF

9.Underthemoonlight won this last year on a similar surface coming from last. She will get back and cop that kickback, which can put them right off. If she cops it, she can place. RP $8, $11 Ff

11.Francaletta drawn out and will likely go forward but is likely to get planted 3 wide in the open or 3w with cover. She should be right at her strongest this campaign as she just kept on getting stronger and stronger last campaign. Needs the inside to go well off to upset the above ones. RP $9, $7.50 Ff

14.Contessa Vanessa ran third to Julius sitting 3 wide in the open and stuck well. Will be improved with that, but has drawn to be at least 3 wide again, and a better track would have helped.

7.Seventh Up will get back on the inner, which is not the place to be here with that kick back, so pass.

4.Charles Road suited to at least 1600m or more- hard to see in this unless they break speed records up front which is unlikely.

1.War Affair  has a dry track action and will likely get squeezed back and hard to see getting amongst it. Stephen Marsh said, “He’s big in condition and I’m worried about the track.” R$27 Ff

5.Authentic Paddy  ran a fair 5th in this last year from the trail. If he places in this the others are in big trouble for their campaigns!

8.Elusive Treasure drawn widest and best FR is 112, 5 lengths below many of these, so has about as much  chance as Trump is of having a sex change.

12.Vinevale has been winning on better surfaces at Ruakaka and looks outclassed, especially from the wide draw.

Race 7

The speed map shows 2-3-8 going forward and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Milly Moo  ran a very good 2nd two starts back being wide all the way and beat home Nuttee rating an FR of 97. Then she raced right handed at Tauranga and after being on the pace, weakened 150m out in a stronger R72 race. All of her form is left handed and she drops back to R65 class and maps to get 2nd or 3rd outer and get every chance. She drops to 50.5kgs which gives her a significant advantage over the main chances carrying 6kgs or more than her. She needs to rate 97 to win this which she has done at both of her last two starts. RP $7, $22 FF

Dangers:

4.Nuttee  closed off strongly to run second last start after snagging back from the draw. The winner is a nice horse. She has drawn to settle handier this time and the kickback didn’t concern her so she looks a decent chance to go on better.

2.Bobby Dazzler looked good in his trials and on debut bounced fast and led and showed fight to rally and win late in the slower part of the track. The time was 9 lengths slower than the R72 race though which is a negative. Drawn well though and should be on the pace. Trainer Stephen Marsh said, “Good effort last start. Harder again. He showed real guts and he’s improved a lot with the run. He’s gone right ahead and I think he’s a good chance.”

1.Aligns With Me won on debut and almost won fresh up lunging late. Clear topweight which is a negative though.

Race 8

The speed map shows a few going forward and a moderate to even tempo likely and midrace moves may happen if they button off midrace.

Confidence: 4/5

2.Divine Duke last start put it altogether at Tauranga and bolted in by 8 lengths. The figures say it was an outstanding effort. He ran home wide out from the 600m mark in 38.04 over 2100m. That was faster than any horse in the R65 1400m race, the maiden 1200m race and the first three races over 1200m to 1600m on what was probably a better surface then and closer to the rail. He rated 104.6 in the Formpro Ratings which an R65 winner hasn’t done for a few years. He gets back into the same grade with 56 kgs with the 4kg allowance. He rates 4 lengths clear of Black Lace who won well here last start but goes up 2.5kgs and the rest have been going round for a while. If he is in the same form as he was at Tauranga, and with Andrew Scott and Lance O’Sullivan being very good trainers, he will at least hold that form. He has drawn wide which is good as he can get back and away from the rail and avoid a lot of the kickback. C0-trainer Andrew Scott told us, “He has come through that run really well and everything just fell into place with Taiki at Tauranga. He’s a top young bloke who loves his horses and has his confidence up now, so I really hope they win tomorrow.” RP $1.80, $3 FF

Dangers:

8.Black Lace won well here last start but goes up 2.5kgs in weight and doesn’t win too often.

3.Party At Paeroa  won well last week in a good Speed Rating. Up in class giving 3kgs to a hot Divine Duke.

7.Artiste the saddle slipped midrace last start so forgive her for that. Drawn the inside which may not be the place to be.

Waverley

There is 7mm of rain forecast today, Friday, and 3mm tomorrow so the current Slow 9 is likely to be a Heavy 10

Update Saturday 7 a.m. The track got 18mm of rain overnight and has got out to a Heavy 11 which will suit some and not others.

Race 1

The speed map shows a moderate tempo with Trisha Lea likely to lead.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Trisha Lea rated strongly last start at Rotorua in a stronger field. She always tries hard and gets 3kgs off which makes her hard to run down. RP $3, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Hamilitonian  looks set to get a soft run outside the leader and from there, looks the main danger.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows speed from 7 and 10 and three runners out widest so good early pace and even from there suiting all runners.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

7.Miss Lizzie  rated strongly last start in a stronger R75 race when setting a fast pace and battling well for 4th. Back in class and almost won an R65 race here three starts back. RP $5

Dangers: 

2.Kotahi has also been rating strongly and on the fresh side, with 2kgs off, looks the main danger.

3.Middagurd two good runs down south and fitter now.

6.Hartley fresh up off a trial win can be in it.

Race 3

The speed map shows not a lot of speed. Direct Capital can lead but after its last start, probably will be happy to hand up to something.

Confidence: 2/5

10.The Heiress  with little early pace here, Lisa Allpress will likely kick up early from the good draw and be on the pace. She has looked good winning her last two and although up in class, should get every chance. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Manua Kea looked good winning his last race and has won here. Gets 4kgs off and with a good ride, can do it again.

7.Dark Princess freshened up but will get back off the moderate tempo and that won’t help. Will be flying late though.

5.Direct Capital battled on well for fifth last start. The lead is there for him but it was last start and he took a sit. Can win if ridden aggressively in the lead.

Race 4

The speed map shows early speed from 2-3-7 and a moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Sea Star ran a game 2nd over 1400m at Awapuni then won well sitting 3 wide in the open over 1200m. Last start she was caught in the slower inner ground and battled well for 4th. Nicely placed here to slide forward with little early speed inside her and either lead or sit outside a soft tempo and the way he puts his head down and stretches out on wet tracks, means he will be very hard to beat with Lisa Allpress up. trainer Rosie Hackett told us, ” He has worked well and I’m really happy with him. Lisa really loves him and she will give him every chance.” RP $3.00, $4.20 FF

Dangers: 

4.Just You beat home Sea Star last start but that was a off a good pace. Meets Sea Star 2.5kgs worse off and the tempo and bias should suit Sea Star this time.

8.Glory Days freshened up and will get back off the moderate tempo but can finish well into a place.

Race 5

The speed map shows Ram Sam Sam likely to lead with Duffers Creek likely to slide over from the inside and a big bunch in behind. Any inside or outside bias will come into play. Dolcetto gets into a winning position about 4th outer on a moderate tempo.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Dolcetto  looked like he needed that second up run but still fought well for second to the well placed and in-form Rosewood. This time, he will be fitter and gets 4kgs off, plus he gets into a winning position over the more suitable 1400m. Strong horse who won third up over 1400m at Awapuni on a heavy track after two runs over 1200m. RP $2.50, $3 FF

Dangers:

9.Hello M’Lady  won well fresh up beating subsequent winner Stradivarius. Drawn to get a good trip and with the 52kgs, looks the main danger.

7.Darci’s Mac  1400m suits now and drawn to get all favours.

4.Duffer’s Creek won well last start and the heavy 11 helps his chances as does the 4kgs coming off.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Durham rated very strongly two starts back in a stronger R75 race. Only fair last start but this is easier and 1400m will suit better. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Surpriseus was an impressive debut winner.

5.Wotamission much better last start and gets 4kgs off.

3.Destiny One won well last start and stays in the same grade with 3kgs off.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

1.Lambrusco strong second last start and is very fit. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers:

5.Onefortheditch has the best FR on a wet track and gets 2kgs off.

10.Diehard has no excuses today according to the trainer. Has the ability to win.

11.I Suggest gets in on a winning weight.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!