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Early Tarzino preview below

Tarzino preview in order of preference.

Update: Subscribers off to a good start with a $712 return for a $10 37% quaddie at Matamata here

Race 7 1400m WFA

Early preview as at Wednesday afternoon. Track currently a Dead 4. According to Accuweather, 3mm is forecast for later today, 6mm of rain is forecast for Thursday and 2mm for Friday. So that’s 11mm which will likely bring it back to a Dead 6 to Slow 8. Last year Close Up, on a slow 9 track won near the inner in 1.27.90 and winners came from on pace and off the pace all day. Our Track Walker will be walking the track Friday morning which will be interesting to know about.

The speed map shows seven runners looking to get on the pace early which should ensure at least an even tempo, suiting all runners.

So based on a Slow track, below are comments about the main chances in order.

In summary, this is a very open race with 10 of the 18 capable of winning it, so maybe waiting closer to the race, to see if any bias is influencing the results, could be wise, as you may be able to discount some and be more confident on others.

In order of preference:

14.Sensible Princess has won on Heavy 11 tracks and on a Dead 4 track when she beat the smart Franceletta and Coldplay at Pukekohe Park. She has been aimed at this race with four trials by top trainer Fraser Auret. He usually gives them one or two, so he has made sure she will ready for a fast run 1400 fresh up. It is a good plan as most of these will be using this as a warm up for longer races, so it is ripe for the taking with a fit, capable mare that he knows can win on any track condition. She showed she was ready in her last trial with the second fastest closing 200m off the stronger of the two trials at Taupo. She has drawn wide out, which does make it harder, so Lisa Allpress will certainly earn her money if she can get her home. The plus is having new York Minute drawn next to her, who will definitely look to go forward and lead, which means she could get a nice drag over and get 2nd outer or ease if something comes round. The full sectional breakdown of both Taupo trials of top horses can be seen here. Andrew Forsman said, “New York Minute is likely to be scratched if it doesn’t get to a genuine Slow to heavy”  $10.50  FF

15.Melody Belle won the Group 2 Manawatu Sires Produce  over 1400m at Awapuni then backed up winning the Group 2 1400m sire Produce at Eagle Farm . Then she won the Foxbridge Plate with a top effort against Julius who had a race start under his belt. You had to be impressed with the way she got up late as Julius is one of the hardest horses to get past. That was a tough run and there is a query about her bouncing back second up. But rider Shafiq Rusof, mentioned she has improved since that run and is confident she can win it. Drawn to jump and take a nice sit and get her chance. $4.80 FF

1.Jon Snow won the Group 2 Tulloch on a heavy track at Rosehill, then won the Group 1 ATC Derby at his next start over 2400m. He’s obviously a class horse and with two solid trial seconds under his belt, if he gets the right run, has to be in this, but obviously more ground is going to suit later, probably in Australia. Andrew Forsman said, ‘He is pretty forward. $6.50 FF

4.Hiflyer has won on a heavy track at Trentham and won fresh up over 1200 at Ruakaka on a Dead track. His two runs in Australia produced a couple of fourths behind good horses. Apparently, he has returned and flourished since, which NZ horses can often do. So fresh up again, and with track conditions no issue, he just needs a decent tempo, which he should get,  to get his chance to be right in it. Drawn to get a good run. $6.20 FF

17.Francaletta  ran a top  4th in the Foxbridge working the hardest in the race, and only shortened stride in the last 100 metres. She is tough but is best suited on a Dead or better track in this class. Andrew Forsman said, ” She has improved lengths of that fresh up run and she is always going to be competitive if she gets in.”$9.80 Ff

 

11.Underthemoonlight  ran third in this last year hitting the line the best of anything running the fastest last 600m of the race on a Slow 9 track. Last start she got back and ran home in the fastest last 400m of the first 9 runners home. The likely good tempo will suit as will a wet track. She will be fitter for that also. $16 FF

6.Ocean Emperor has won 7 from 23 and has won on a heavy 10 at Rotorua, so track conditions should not be an excuse. In both of his trials he has got nice soft leads and kept up a strong gallop in his first one untouched with the whip. In his last trial at Taupo he was given a couple 150m out and responded very well. So he is going into this fit enough to be a chance. The only concern is that both of his Group 2 wins came off 7 and 14 day breaks when he got all favours on a moderate tempo and this is going to be a faster tempo. So I feel he is a better horse with one or two race starts under his belt. $10.50 Ff

10.Scott Base is obviously targeting the longer races where he is going to be right in his element. His trial at Taupo was just ok. His chances will increase in this if they go hard and he has drawn to get settle on the outer and the inside would have to be off, which will suit closers who can handle a wet track, which he can. Really looking forward to seeing how he goes this season. A Cox Plate nom has been put in as he is the type of horse who could really develop into a top class middle distance horse. $6.50 FF

16.Savvy Coup had a top season resulting in 3yo of the year. She will be ‘competitive’ according to co-trainer but will be right at her best for the Livamol.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!