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Saturday 1 September preview below

Update:

Francaletta looks much fitter and relaxed than Te Rapa. Hopefully she leads otherwise she may be 3 back inner. $10 units a win on the tote. Melody belle just too good. Closing balance 25.6 units

Contessa Vanessa went down nice and relaxed and looks fit. The inside is very good, so if she can lead and hold them up, then sprint off the front, she will be very hard to run down. 5 units at $5 FF and 5 units on the win tote.

Bugger! Danielle Johnson won it just after the start when she hunted through to lead and bullied Elliot out of it.

Balance 35.6 units back for Francaletta’s race.

Big Mike looks very fit and the inside is fine, so hopefully he can put the pedal down before the bend and make them carry their weight and if we ride him hard enough, ( watch the whip rule)  he can hold on. 4 units at $4.80 Ff and 4 units on the win tote. What a race! He did everything right but was just beaten by a decent horse with the good tempo. 45.6 units balance. Back for Vanessa’s race next up.

Qiji Express looks terrific and the track is playing ideally for on pace runners who are good. 4 units at $2.70 FF and 4 on the win tote. Good luck if you have any multis on him. Had his chance. Balance 53.6 units Back for Big Mike in the next

Update:

I bet you were saying the same thing as me after they just turned in. But he knew what he had under him and he is a top horse in the making alright. 11.6 units profit.  If you had a multi from the Multi builders yesterday, the $4.50 on him gets a 20% deduction with Gift Of Power coming out.

Te Akau Shark is ready to win by the way he looked. There is a doubt over Mihaul with his fitness and that’s why the money has come for the Shark. 4 units at $2.50 FF and 4 units on the tote for a win.

Update: No further bets but I’ve upgraded Contessa Vanessa in race 6 at Ruakaka to 3/5 confidence, as she should get a soft lead and if the track is ok on the inside, we could be on. I’ll post an update for her two minutes out.

Update 8.15 p.m. Friday

They have had a little rain, 1.5mm, in the late afternoon. With a fine warm  day with wind forecast, it could get back a little from the current Slow 8.

Update: Friday 10.30 a.m.

Our Track Walker Brendan reports, ( as at 10.30 a.m. Friday)” Overall I’d rate it a Dead 5 to 6. I’m surprised they’ve posted a Slow 8 on the nzracing site.  The inside is just as good as the outer so I can’t see a strong bias except for 3 to 5 metres out down the straight. It’s warm here and with the same weather forecast tomorrow, it could get back to a Dead 4 which will be great.”

Update 7.50 a.m. Saturday Updated by noon.

Plus the 50 units updated bets will be posted on the four horses below about 2 minutes before the race.

Bet of the Day Hastings Race 2 3.Te Akau Shark $4.50 FF ( less deductions with Gift Of Power coming out now. ) 1st $2.50

Value bet of the Day  Hastings Race 5 3.Qiji Express $4.20 FF

Speed Map Special  Race 6 Hastings  11. Big Mike $6.50 FF  2nd after being backed in late to $3.50 and almost did it.

Sneaky of the Day  Race 7 17.Francaletta $8.50 FF Missed after missing the jump slightly and trailing. Needed to lead as 5 of her wins have been with clear air in front of her.

Multi of the Day Te Akau Shark into Qiji Express

Suggested quaddie for 5% for $24

Leg 1: 1. Charles Road
2. Zacada
5. Highlad
11. Big Mike
Leg 2: 14. Sensible Princess
15. Melody Belle
17. Francaletta
Leg 3: 5. Caricature
8. One Prize One Goal
9. Smokin’ Oak
10. Soroc
11. Beauden
15. South Fork
16. Lubaya
17. Londaro
Leg 4: 2. Decades
3. Joe’s Legacy
11. Podravina
12. Tuscan Whistler
15. Parvina

Hastings

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Gorbachev 1st $3.40  rates 7 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments based on his ratings in stronger fields 3 and 4 starts back. Drawn to get a good run and gets 3kgs off. Negative is he hasn’t won for a while and it is a big field with a 3kg apprentice up. Priced about right. RP $3.40, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

3.Lothbrok is a big strong fella who ran a game second then followed up with an easy win. Matt Cameron will suit him.

6.Revolution will try for an all the way win and will be hard to run down if left alone.

2.My Tommy strong third last start and drawn well with Lisa Allpress up.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

3.Te Akau Shark 1st $2.50 really impressed on debut running the fastest last 600m and 200m all day.  Then next up got back and wide and in about 150m went from there to first and kicked away. Then he ran a strong fourth in the 200o Guineas. He always looked like he would be better next campaign and he showed that winning his two recent trials. The last coming from 4 lengths behind Jon Snow to beat him at Te teko. He looked terrific before the start and even though it says officially he was wearing blinkers in those trials, he wasn’t. It says blinkers off today but we know he raced really well with them off in ther trials. He has tremendous acceleration and with the decent tempo likely, he should get his chance to angle into the clear and power over these. RP $2.70, $4.50 FF but I’d wait till we get the track report on Friday morning as he doesn’t want a leaders bias. The straight should play evenly according to our Track Walker, so he can be backed early.

Dangers:

2.Mihaul  is a good horse and drawn ideally. You wouldn’t back him based on his trial where he showed nothing but wasn’t pushed.

8.Barcello  won fresh up last campaign. Drawn the ace and should get his chance.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

14.Langkiwi looked good running two strong seconds last campaign. He’ll be ready to win fresh up and should be right on the pace. RP $3.50, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

15.Harbourside ran a strong second to Qiji Express here and looked ready to fore from the Pike stable at the trials.

2.Fearless has cost punters plenty but looks to have the ability to win at least a maiden.

9.Keltic Rockstar nice 3rd here on debut. Drawn to get all favours.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Aim Smart won well at Ruakaka and has been set for this. Drawn to get a good run near the pace and looks the one to beat. RP $3.60, $3 FF

Dangers:

8.Bluetwentytwo has the ability to win. Just needs a good run.

2.Angel In Bluejeans is a quick improver.

7.Ohceedee  1st $8 ran 2nd to Aim Smart and just needs a good run from the draw to be in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

3.Qiji Express won here in may leading all the way in a good speed rating. He looked like a horse who would develop into a good 3yo and he has based on his recent trial win where he travelled well in the trail and drove through, relishing his work to win it. Drawn well from the Baker/ Forsman stable and Matt Cameron knows him well. Maps to lead if Matt Cameron wants it, or take a sit, so should get every chance. RP $3.70, $4.20 Ff

Dangers:

10.Stellar Noire looked fit at the trials and is a nice horse. Negative is the wide draw. The money has come for her, so if they go hard enough, can be in this.

2.Cyber Attack 1st $9.40- good value drew out last start and had to snag but got into the 1×1. On the turn, he didn’t seem like the kick back and the leader kept running out so he was forced to go out as well. Plus he still didn’t seem to like the kickback. He appeared to have a bit to offer as well.

5.Tiny Terror was rightly promoted last start from 2nd after being taken wider in the straight beating home Cyber Attack. Has early speed and may end up 2nd outer outside Cyber Attack, but I think Cyber has the edge over him this time with the better draw and based on how they looked at Te Rapa.

1.Sir Nate ran a strong finishing 7th in the karaka Millions then won well at Trentham. After a spell he trialled at Foxton, pinged out to lead, trailed and drove home strongly. Drawn 1 and he may end up 3 or 4 back on the rail here and need luck. More ground will suit later on so $3.30 is too short with 59.5kgs giving them all weight.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

11.Big Mike 2nd $1.60 should get a soft time on the pace and be a chance from there. Gets 4kgs off his back and he looked fit enough at the trials when I was there. Maps to sit outside Bizzwinkle and I’d be surprised if he put midrace pressure on him before the 800m mark. But with his residual race fitness, and the light weight, he should put the pressure on around the 600m mark and maybe lead by the turn, and based on his outstanding win at Te Rapa over 1600m, beating Vinevale who went on to good form, where his sectional splits saw him run the first 800m in 47.65 and the last 800m in 47.67, basically running them into the ground in the best speed rating all day, said he could go on with it, which he did, he can get a winning break on them and prove very hard to run down. 4kg apprentice Ashvin Goindasamy rode his first winner on Cutting Up Rough at Taupo and showed good balance and effective use of the whip, and David Walsh always told me a claiming apprentice is always much harder to run down when they are on leaders rather than back markers. If he can reproduce that Te rapa run, and i see no0 reason why he can’t, he can beat these. RP $4, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Highlad  won fresh up over 1400m at Te Rapa on a heavy track last campaign off a trial win where he was pushed up early in the straight and won well. His recent trial showed he was in similar condition when 3 wide on the pace and was never pushed to run second to Saint Emillion. Drawn out but will slide forward and get a soft time on a moderate tempo and be hard to beat. RP $5

1.Charles Road 1st $9.80  ran on well in the straight fresh up in good sectionals. 1600m suits better and drawn to get a good run.

2.Zacada  won really well at the Te Teko trials and could upset fresh up.

 

Race 7 1400m WFA

 

Early preview as at Wednesday afternoon. Track currently a Dead 4. According to Accuweather, 3mm is forecast for later today, 6mm of rain is forecast for Thursday and 2mm for Friday. So that’s 11mm which will likely bring it back to a Dead 6 to Slow 8. Last year Close Up, on a slow 9 track won near the inner in 1.27.90 and winners came from on pace and off the pace all day. Our Track Walker will be walking the track Friday morning which will be interesting to know about.

Below is the updated speed map. With New York Minute out now, it takes some pressure out of it. How the track is playing will also influence what riders do early. The six runners in green all go forward but there is no regular leader. Francaletta has won 5 of her races sitting 2nd outer or leading, so likes clear air in front of her. From the map then, she is likely to kick out and lead with Melody belle, who hoes best with cover, likely to try and tuck in behind others early. Sensible Princess should be able to get a drag over outside Authentic paddy, and is in danger of getting caught 3 wide in the open unless Lisa Allpress is decisive to get her outside the leader. I’m picking they will settle into position fairly quickly and a moderate to even tempo is likely suiting runners in the first half.

 

So based on a Slow track, below are comments about the main chances in order.

In summary, this is a very open race with ten of the 18 capable of winning it, so maybe waiting closer to the race, to see if any bias is influencing the results, could be wise. As you may be able to discount some and be more confident on others.

Update:

Our Track Walker Brendan reports, ( as at 10.30 a.m. Friday)” Overall I’d rate it a Dead 5 to 6. I’m surprised they’ve posted a Slow 8 on the nzracing site.  The inside is just as good as the outer so I can’t see a strong bias except for 3 to 5 metres out down the straight. It’s warm here and with the same weather forecast tomorrow, it could get back to a Dead 4 which will be great.”

With the Dead track now, I’m very keen on Francaletta. She maps to get every chance on what could be a moderate tempo now. Baker/Forsman trained and is much fitter and she is tough!

Confidence: 3/5

17.Francaletta  ran a top  4th in the Foxbridge working the hardest in the race on a strong tempo , and only shortened stride in the last 100 metres.  She is tough and is best suited by a Slow 7 or better track. She seems best when she has clear air in front of her either 2nd outer or leading, so she looks like she could lead here from gate 3 and I can’t see them taking her on, so a moderate to even tempo is likely, which will give her every chance to win this.  Andrew Forsman said, ” She has improved lengths off that fresh up run and she is always going to be competitive if she gets in.”$9.80 Ff into $8.50 FF Rated price $5 so she is very good value.

Dangers:

14.Sensible Princess has won on Heavy 11 tracks and on a Dead 4 track when she beat the smart Franceletta and Coldplay at Pukekohe Park. She has been aimed at this race with four trials by top trainer Fraser Auret. He usually gives them one or two, so he has made sure she will ready for a fast run 1400 fresh up. It is a good plan as most of these will be using this as a warm up for longer races, so it is ripe for the taking with a fit, capable mare that he knows can win on any track condition. She showed she was ready in her last trial with the second fastest closing 200m off the stronger of the two trials at Taupo. She has drawn wide out, which does make it harder, so Lisa Allpress will certainly earn her money if she can get her home. The plus is having new York Minute drawn next to her, who will definitely look to go forward and lead, which means she could get a nice drag over and get 2nd outer or ease if something comes round. The full sectional breakdown of both Taupo trials of top horses can be seen here. Andrew Forsman said, “New York Minute is likely to be scratched if it doesn’t get to a genuine Slow to heavy”  $10.50  FF

15.Melody Belle 1st $4 won the Group 2 Manawatu Sires Produce  over 1400m at Awapuni then backed up winning the Group 2 1400m sire Produce at Eagle Farm . Then she won the Foxbridge Plate with a top effort against Julius who had a race start under his belt. You had to be impressed with the way she got up late as Julius is one of the hardest horses to get past. That was a tough run and there is a query about her bouncing back second up. But rider Shafiq Rusof, mentioned she has improved since that run and is confident she can win it. Drawn to jump and take a nice sit and get her chance. $4.80 FF

4.Hiflyer 2nd $1.90 has won on a heavy track at Trentham and won fresh up over 1200 at Ruakaka on a Dead track. His two runs in Australia produced a couple of fourths behind good horses. Apparently, he has returned and flourished since, which NZ horses can often do. So fresh up again, and with track conditions no issue, he just needs a decent tempo, which he should get,  to get his chance to be right in it. Drawn to get a good run. $6.20 FF

 

Other thoughts:

1.Jon Snow won the Group 2 Tulloch on a heavy track at Rosehill, then won the Group 1 ATC Derby at his next start over 2400m. He’s obviously a class horse and with two solid trial seconds under his belt, if he gets the right run, has to be in this, but obviously more ground is going to suit later, probably in Australia. Andrew Forsman said, ‘He is pretty forward. $6.50 FF

 

11.Underthemoonlight  ran third in this last year hitting the line the best of anything running the fastest last 600m of the race on a Slow 9 track. Last start she got back and ran home in the fastest last 400m of the first 9 runners home. The likely good tempo will suit as will a wet track. She will be fitter for that also. $16 FF

6.Ocean Emperor has won 7 from 23 and has won on a heavy 10 at Rotorua, so track conditions should not be an excuse. In both of his trials he has got nice soft leads and kept up a strong gallop in his first one untouched with the whip. In his last trial at Taupo he was given a couple 150m out and responded very well. So he is going into this fit enough to be a chance. The only concern is that both of his Group 2 wins came off 7 and 14 day breaks when he got all favours on a moderate tempo and this is going to be a faster tempo. So I feel he is a better horse with one or two race starts under his belt. $10.50 Ff

10.Scott Base is obviously targeting the longer races where he is going to be right in his element. His trial at Taupo was just ok. His chances will increase in this if they go hard and he has drawn to get settle on the outer and the inside would have to be off, which will suit closers who can handle a wet track, which he can. Really looking forward to seeing how he goes this season. A Cox Plate nom has been put in as he is the type of horse who could really develop into a top class middle distance horse. $6.50 FF

16.Savvy Coup had a top season resulting in 3yo of the year. She will be ‘competitive’ according to co-trainer but will be right at her best for the Livamol.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.One Prize One Goal won three races last campaign and looked like he would be better in time. He looked terrific at the Te rapa trials where he led and strode out very strongly to win. Trainer Lee Somervell has always thought a lot of him, and he was just beaten fresh up at this meeting last year. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Soroc looked very fit at the trials and a wet track fresh up is ideal for him.

16.Lubaya goes well here and has won fresh up.

11.Beauden is a nice horse drawn to get all favours with Chris Johnson up.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

15.Parvina won well here on debut but looked like she would be better next campaign. She won her trial very well recently, beating subsequent easy winner, Swing Note. She will get back but with an even tempo likely, should get her chance tp pick a path through them. RP $3.60, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

11.Podravina will be on the pace and will be fit enough to be the one Parvina has to run down.

2.Decades rates on top after weight adjustments and should get a good run.

3.Joe’s legacy is a nice galloper and with the right run, can do it.

12.Tuscan Whistler is ready to fire fresh. Quiet trial but looked fit.

Ruakaka

With plenty of fresh runners going round here today, it makes it tricky. Probably the best bet here is Contessa Vanessa in race 6. She has had two runs and drops back in class where she should get out and lead or be on it, and her ability and fitness should do the rest.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

14.Maison Roxanne is bred to be good and looked good winning her two trials.

Dangers:

1.Beastmode rated very strongly last campaign. Won his recent trial well and the wide draw is the only negative. One to watch closely for the future.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Major Tom goes well here and the 2kgs off helps. RP $3.40, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Jake The Muss  game second to Tom last start and drawn to get every chance.

1.Greencast goes well here and with a good run, should be in it.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Amazing Az  1st $2.30 won impressively here last start. Looking for more ground now. RP $3.40, $3.50 Ff

Dangers:

6.Los Angeles it took a good one to run her down here last start. With a softish time will be the one to run down.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

8.Final Suggestion 1st $4.20  should be able to slide to the lead and be the one to run down again. Should be right at his peak now. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Dangers:

7.Marbles winning well and the obvious danger.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Rikki Tikki Tavi has been freshened up since her unlucky 4th here last start. Drawn to get a good run just in behind and Sam Spratt should suit her.

Dangers:

5.Vinevale went well in the Foxbridge. Back on her favourite track has to be a chance.

8.Excelleration  has won here and went on to better things. Freshened up and looked really good running home for second in her trial. Weighted to be a realistic chance.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

4.Contessa Vanessa 2nd and beaten by a smart ride. ran a top race fresh up sitting wide on the pace behind Julius. Then in the Foxbridge drew wide and was hampered then blundered so Ryan Elliot looked after her and eased her down. Drawn to lead and get a soft one, so looks nicely placed back in class and is fitter third up, so should prove hard to run down. RP $3.20, $4.60 Ff

Dangers:

5.Danzdanzdance 1st with a smart ride by Danielle hunting out and ensuring she got the lead on the rail  is a very good mare and did well in a big campaign. She should be stronger now and bolted in here fresh up last campaign.

6.Hello Its Me got the ideal run fresh up to win well. Smart horse.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Not Usual Current showed terrific early speed to lead and win from gate 11 here last start. Needed that run so should be harder to beat with the same beginning. RP $3.90, $4

Dangers:

4.Melt 1st $3 is a very good filly who won on debut. Drawn to get every chance.

2.Star Performance  drawn to get an ideal run and get the last go at them.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

5.Pop Star Princess won her trial well and with her early speed and a good run, is the one to beat.

Dangers:

4.Not Usual Heart  with 3kgs off and a good run, is right in this.

1.Manhattan Flame has won fresh up and had a quiet trial. Could upset.

10.Swisswatch should be stronger this campaign and had a quiet trial. Gets 4kgs off.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

2.Rene  3rd $2.80  has been rating well in stronger fields. Drops in class with 3kgs off and rates on top in the Formpro Ratings. RP $5

Dangers:

9.Fancy More 2nd $2.70  with a good run from the wide draw, can do it.

14.Mi Sky racing out of his class but peaking after two good runs.

6.Jimmy Rocket  looked handy last campaign. Quiet trial and is ready.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!