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Wednesday preview below

Update 5.51

Twilight Song looks fit enough to win. The track is playing evenly so if she leads or gets 2nd outer, the key will be if anything really takes her on strongly. If they sit and wait, which the map says they are likely to do, she can certainly kick on these and over 1100m, she is going to be very hard to run down. she has been confidently backed in the last few minutes. Missed after seeming to get a fair run on the pace.

Update 5.17 p.m. Sundarbans looks right at her peak and relaxed. She has drifted off a good firm on Unlimited Ability but he has two negatives- the wider draw and a firm track where his action indicates he needs a wet track. She looks a good bet. 1st $3.90 after getting out to $4.80 Ff. Traveled well and won easing down.

With no NZ gallops today I’ve found two well placed runners at Ballarat where the track seems to be playing evenly so far. I’ll report back about two minutes before the race with an update on both runners.

An early preview of Taranaki can be seen here with two well placed bets.

Ballarat

Race 6 5.20 p.m. Updated 2 minutes before the race

Confidence: 3/5

10.Sundarbans looks nicely placed here over 1200m. She ran two strong seconds last campaign against handy horses but looked like she would be better with time. She resumed with a very strong win on the synthetic sitting 2nd outer and when asked to go stretched out impressively to win easing down. The time wasn’t great but all she could do was win. Then she started in a much strong 3yo race at Caulfield, drew wide, threw her head in the air as she jumped and crossed over to the rear in the big field. She ran the quickest 200m from the 600m to the 400m. When out and balanced she had no chance to get close but ran on nicely late. She can be forgiven for that. Back to this much easier race, where she maps to get a cosy run in behind an even tempo, she can use that nice long stride with the weight advantage to wind up and beat these home. RP $2.40, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

4.Unlimited Ability  won and ran second looking good, but they were on wet tracks and he has a wet track action. From a wide draw, he will have to work to get 2nd outer or sit wide, so there are a couple of negatives with the $2 chance.

Race 7 5.55 p.m. Updated 2 minutes before the race

Confidence: 3/5

4.Twilight Song won on debut at Caulfield sitting 3 wide in the open in the best of the 3 x 1100m times and the best speed rating all day. Then she won second up at Sandown holding out Platinum Angel who went on to win good races. Third up she ran a game third in a strong field at Flemington. She won a recent jumpout ( see here )    leading all the way as well. So fresh up, over 1100m from a good draw, she can lead or sit 2nd outer if something kicks up she can sit 2nd outer. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure so this strong looking mare can kick on these and prove very hard to run down. RP $2.50. $3.20 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!