Update: 5.08 p.m.
3.Graff looks terrific and with a good run with cover, he has an ideal action for a wet track, so he looks a good bet. 15 units a win at $3 FF 2nd with a terrific run wide in the open but they don’t pay out on that!
Update: 1.43 p.m.
Devil May Care is relaxed and ready to fire. The race 2 winner came down the strip where he should come where it does look slightly better, so he looks very hard to keep out. 15 units at $2.60 F F win- beaten by a slow tempo. Out in 37.79 home in 34.76!
Update: No further bets- back just before Devil may Care’s race
Update 7 a.m. Saturday Wanganui has come back to a Slow 9 and at this meeting last year, Waldorf led all the way in race 7 to win the Wanganui Guineas on the rail. And the Money Shot, who walked the track yesterday, agrees that it will play evenly for the early races then they may work out away from the rail later, but wait and see.
An update will be posted by noon and I will post an update 2 minutes before Devil May Care’s and Graff’s race with bets from the 50 unit bank.
Bet of the Day Riccarton Race 3 6.Devil May Care $3.30 Ff
Value bet of the Day Wanganui Race 8 11.Avastin $7 FF
Sneaky of the Day Wanganui Race 5 7.Charlie Horse $7.50 Ff
Multi of the day Devil May Care $3.30 Ff with Graff $2.65 Ff
The Money Shot’s best two sports bets are:
Penrith -2.5 points $1.92
Taranaki ( Sunday ) 4.35 p.m. -13.5 $1.87
3.Graff won impressively on debut then second up looked flat on the turn but once balanced and in the clear, really unwound to get up and win. He definitely looked like the blinkers would help him. So after a spell, he trialled with blinkers on and closed off nicely for second running much truer and focused. Then fresh up here, her came from the trail and in the slower ground, challenged 200m out but then put his head down and drew out. The speed rating was the best all day and he has trained on really well. Drawn out but with the soft track and showers forecast Friday and Saturday, the inside is going to be off by this time of day. He isn’t fast away so will likely get back and be 3 wide with cover and with an even tempo likely, he should be able to get a track into it, and with his ideal action for an off track, he looks very well placed to get over these. RP $2.00, $2.65 FF
Riccarton where the track is a heavy 10 but with fine weather forecast, it should come back a little. Update Saturday 7 a.m. It has come back to a Slow 8 which will suit Devil May Care. There’s nothing else there I can select with ant confidence.
6.Devil May Care looked good last campaign. He did tend to sweat up a bit and was a bit green, so the break would have done him good. I saw him at the Te Teko trials when he looked very strong and settled well at the back and worked home very nicely for third full of running. He blew a bit after though. So he returned here on the 28th in a trial and did the same thing settling nicely at the back and ran home full of running. Both trials were on Heavy 10 tracks.
He’s a big striding fella and he needs a decent tempo in his races where he can wind up. He gets that here with Bonoparte and Mr Conductor both regular leaders. He’s drawn 8 in the 9 horse field, which will ensure he can just snag back on the outer and get out in clear air when he wants and he should just be too powerful for these over the last 100 metres. Shafiq knows him well and rode him in both of his trials, so knows exactly what he is capable of. He did the job for us last week on Te Akau Shark, and I see no reason why he can’t do the same here. RP $1.90, $3.30 FF
The Money Shot has walked the track and said the track should play evenly early on and they may get out to the centre but not right out wide. It is a warm day there and it could improve.
You can’t possibly have a serious bet here until you see how the track is playing. The rail is back to true which can favour on pace runners but at some stage they are bound to get out wider to be able to win.
A good race to watch
9.Play The Field did well in a strong race at Taranaki. Good tempo here, so with a good ride off the pace, he could get over these late with the 3kgs off. RP $4.50, $5.20 FF
4.Miss Lizzie is racing well and with a decent time in front, could hold on.
3.Mr Axle from the inside draw should get a good run. Very fit now.
4.Art Deco looks well placed with 3kgs off. Working well and if the inside is ok, looks the one. RP $3.80
6.Red Sierra freshened up and with 3kgs off and if the inside is off, she can bounce back.
1.Scapolo with 4kgs off has to be in it.
3.Heni fresh up and well forward based on her recent trial. From a wide draw if the outside is the place they are heading for, she can do it.
2.Peaceful looked good last campaign beating Cyber Attack who has franked that now. She looked like she would be better as a 3yo and trialled nicely being wide on the pace and wasn’t pushed for fifth. Strong form out of the race too. Negative is the inside draw if the outside is the pace to be. If ok, she can win. RP $3.50 if inside is ok. $4.20 FF
1.London Express is a nice filly and drawn out, so if they are coming wide to win, her wide draw is a big plus.
3.Secret Allure ran 3rd to London Express here and drawn nicely to have options.
8.Tutta La Classe also drawn to have options inside or out and with the freshener, should be in it.
7.Charlie Horse put in a big late finish at Taranaki running past 6 horses in the last 100 metres and goes well here. So 2040m suits now and he is fitter after that 35 day break. RP $5, $7.50 FF
9.Duelicious ran on well in an on pace race last start. 2040m looks ideal now.
2.Wazuzu with 3kgs off, and from the wide draw, can get to the right place.
3.High Quality with 4kg off has to be in this.
It doesn’t get any easier!
4.Woodsman just held on last start but the step to 2040m where he can slide forward from the wide draw and sit outside the lead, then get to the outside, he could kick on these and the 3kgs off will help him hang on. RP $5, $5.50 FF
1.Duffers Creek really closed off hard late last start. If they go hard, he could swamp them.
8.Peso is tough to beat on heavy track and if the inside is ok, could do it.
1.Aternartin has been impressive at his last two starts. He has trialled since and looked very ready to go again here. Drawn the inside but pings the gates and should lead. If the inside is off, he nay be able to get a break on them and angle out to the best part wide on the turn, and still be too good for these at set weights. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF
3.Botti only beat a weak field on debut but looks good. Will likely get back and if he can get to the best part of the track, wherever that may be, he can test Aternartin.
8.Red Beach looked good winning on debut and drawn in the right place for Lisa Allpress to go where she wants.
4.Notabadidea had to be good to win like he did being wide in the open. Looks like a tough galloper which you need in a race like this.
11.Avastin ran a game second here over 2040m two starts back. Has had a freshener and led all the way in a recent trial. She goes best fresh and with Lisa Allpress on again and on 54.5kgs, she can win this. RP $4, $46.80 FF
6.Thee Old Cougar won well here then battled in next two. Drawn wide which could be an asset.
4.Kirkland has run two solid seconds and is racing out of his class. Fitter now though but inside draw may be against.