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Matamata preview below

Matamata Market Movers as at noon

Race 1 4.Parliament $5.80 to $4.60

Race 2 1.Mexican Tycoon $2.30 to $1.80 and 8.Socialights $14 to $9.50

Race 4 7.Verry Elleegant $2.80 to $2.40

Race 5 5.Armaguard $7.20 to $6.50

 

Recommended multi for $10 to return $48.60 Missed

NZ Racing 12 Sep 2018 12:34 M2 R1 MATAMATA RACES 1400m
Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1211)
$1.60 Drake Bay (10)58.5
NZ Racing 12 Sep 2018 16:39 M2 R8 MATAMATA RACES 2000m
Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1218)
$1.55 Lady Day (4)56.5
NZ Racing 12 Sep 2018 14:19 M2 R4 MATAMATA RACES 1400m
Final Fld Top3 Deductions Apply (Opt1214)
$1.45 Flourishing (2)58.5
NZ Racing 12 Sep 2018 14:54 M2 R5 MATAMATA RACES 1400m
H2H 1:AtomicBlast v 5:Armaguard (Opt255)
$1.35 Armaguard

 

Matamata

Gee, I’m quite excited about previewing a meeting with some nice horses that could end up competing on a Dead 6 track by Race 1!  With Spring upon us and decent weather kicking in, I’m really going to be getting stuck into the North Island meetings. Not only with the previews, but reviews as well. In those, I’ll be noting which runners are worth following, how the sectionals reveal which runners were advantaged or disadvantaged by the tempo, notable last 200 metre sectionals and much more.

The preview will be in depth and I’ll be noting the negatives and positives for the favourite. Plus, with my rated price, you can see if it is value or worth backing one or two others in the race to beat it. I think we all know, if you can get the favourite beaten, you can set yourself up for some big collects. Just look at that $6k quaddie at Wanganui last Saturday. Indiginous Union, Strolling Vagabond and Thee Old Cougar weren’t hard to find, and if you though Botti wasn’t suited by an on pace bias or the track was too good for Aternartin, it wouldn’t have been too hard to put in Bobby Dazzler, which blew the quaddie price out.

The track has come back to a slow 7 and may get to a dead 6 by race time! I’ll be doing  a thorough review of this meeting as well.

Update posted by noon with any head to heads and market movers.

 

Bet of the day Race 2 1.Mexican Tycoon $2 FF taken on in front 5th

Value bet of the day Race 8 8.Lady Day $4.20 FF 4th every chance

Multi of the day with the above two.

 

Other good bets:

Speed map Special Race 4 3.Flourishing $4 Ff 3rd $1.50

Sneaky of the day Race 5 5.Armaguard $7.50 Ff

 Early recommended quadie for $10 for 41%

Leg 1: 1. Drake Bay
4. Parliament
9. Adis
Leg 2: 1. Mexican Tycoon
Leg 3: 2. Garados
3. Cavallo Eccellente
5. Caleb’s Shadow
6. Reflection
Leg 4: 3. Flourishing
7. Verry Elleegant

 

Late quaddie recommended bet: $10 for 15%

Leg 1: 2. Seirios
4. Sun Genes
5. Armaguard
10. Falkirk Lass
Leg 2: 4. Myrcella
5. Endean Express
6. Shadow Dancer
7. Jet Charged
Leg 3: 1. Ali Baba
2. Divine Duke
4. Blackmagicwoman
5. Pythagoras
Leg 4: 8. Lady Day

Race 1

The speed map shows good early speed right across the field ensuring at least an even tempo suiting all runners.

 Confidence: 2/5 and some nice horses in it. The top three selections all look likely to at least win a maiden in their next two or three starts.

1.Drake Bay has found the line strongly and his first two starts and the 1400m will suit ideally now. His galloping action indicates he will relish the improved track condition as well. With a good tempo in the race likely, he should be able to settle behind midfield, and even 3 wide with cover, can get a track into it and third up, with Vinnie Colgan choosing him over Adis, he can get over these. Negative is: will get back and rely on an even tempo at least ( but the map says he should get that) . RP $3.70, $4 FF

 Dangers:

9.Adis 1st $6 Has placed in stronger fields ( 2nd in Group 2 2000m Royal Stakes at Ellerslie ) and was caught wide fresh up. Drawn to get an ideal run here and can certainly be in this. RP $5.50, $8.20 FF is nice value

4. Parliament after winning his first two trials he was strongly favoured to win on debut. He got back and came widest on the turn and wanted to run in under the right-hand whip and did very well to keep closing for third. He looks a definite improver and will be hard to beat here. Negatives are he is second up and still learning.

 10.Carreleur ran second here last start beating Parliament home. Has drawn out wider this time so that won’t help. Trainer Mark Lupton said, ” She’s really worked well since that last run here. She’s got a big heart and tries hard. She may be better up to 1600m as she’s a work in progress.”

Other thoughts:

3.Acre.Has been racing against harder maiden and fields and back to 1400 m will help. Will slide forward from the wide draw and be a chance from there.

8.Ultimatexpectation Ran on strongly last start behind a good horse who has since won and with a freshener can sneak into a place.

12.Chiara ran third fresh up and has trialled recently so looks a decent place chance at odds.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

1.Mexican Tycoon did well on debut at hasting being wide all the way. Then in the Ryder Stakes jumped at the start, recovered well and ran on strongly for second beating Touta la Classe who ran a terrific third last Saturday. He drops back to an average midweek race and the Baker/Forsman team will have him ready to get a soft kill. Matt Cameron suits him ideally with his strong riding ability as well. Negative is he can be tardily away which doesn’t help over 1200m. RP $2.00, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

2.In A Twinkling 1st $3 on debut really unwound fast late for a close second beating a couple of subsequent winners. He has a high front leg action which means he should handle a slow track easily. His two trial runs were quiet ones as he could have finished closer with urging. So he comes into this fit enough to win. Drawn out but did show enough speed in his trials and race start to say he could land closer. Likely to be better suited by 1400m or more too.

3.Dispatched we’ll beaten on debut when paying $57. Won a recent trial beating home a quietly ridden In A Twinkling. Drawn 1 and has the early pace to use it. The upsetter from the lead or trail with Cameron Lammas up.

8.Socialights was slow away at Hastings but quickly recovered to be in behind the leaders. She fought on quite well for fourth. Trialled recently and slow away again but ran a nice fourth without being pushed. Wide draw and likely to get back and that will make it tougher. Nice galloped though from in-form Marsh stable.

 

Other thoughts:

9.Naval Fleet  looked good in her first trial at Cambridge sprinting home fast late. Spelled after and looked stronger winning her trial at Te Teko 2nd outer and holding on nicely to win without being pushed. Dam won two races over 1600m then 2100m. Drawn to get a good run with Samantha Collett up.

7.Somogramor has disappointed punters but could hold on for a place.

4.Fast Mover won a recent trial strongly. Wide draw no help but likely to go forward with its early pace.

 

 

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open weak maiden.

5.Calebs Shadow 1st $2.60  has run two strong placings and has the early speed to get handy. 4kgs off which is a plus. Bit one paced on the heavy tracks and is an 8yo mare so beatable.

RP $4.50

Dangers:

3.Cavallo Eccelente last start led and was still there 100m out but tired over the 1400m. Back to 1200m suits. Wide draw no help but weak field.

2.Garados won his trail very well at Taupo when coming from 6th wide on the turn and relishing his work with a nice action drawing away late. Fell when back at Hastings. Strikes a weak field and could upset.

1.Clarios has had plenty of chances but goes best fresh. Drawn well but likely to be midfield or worse. Place chance from there.

6.Reflection tends to get back and rely on a decent tempo and needs more ground. If they go hard could sneak a place fresh up.

4.Plushenko ran 2nd in his recent trial in a 4 horse heat sharing the pace and fought well for second with a good wet track action.

12.Cyclone Sophie ran a battling distant 4th in her last trial at Te Rapa.

 

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

3.Flourishing ( out of the smart La Fleur) looked good winning at Woodville bouncing to the lead and raced away to win by 6L in a good speed rating. She trialled really well at Te Rapa recently when settling nicely third outer with a low head carriage, challenged 200m out, led and stretched her neck when asked to produce to win well beating the smart Zanyetta. She looked fit then and will no doubt have targeted this Pearl Series Bonus race. From the inside draw, she maps to lead and get her own way. Danielle Johnson, who is riding with great judgement and confidence, will no doubt rate her well and give her every chance to kick on these and be very hard to run down. RP $2.50, $4 Ff

Dangers:

7.Very Elleegant  1st $2.00 won impressively last start beating a weak field. Will likely settle 3 back inner and with a moderate tempo being set up by Flourishing, she may over-race and get caught out when Danielle Johnson puts the pedal down. An intriguing race.

4.Velveteen is likely to settle behind midfield and in a slowly run race, unwind late but likely to be outsprinted coming wide.

1.Icing On The Cake ” The improving track will help her and the 59.6 will be a bit of an ask but none of the others are claiming so it evens it out a bit. ”

 

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 with 5.Armaguard a nice eachway bet.

5.Armagaurd  two starts back here shared the pace on the inner and kept fighting right to the line to be 0.5L from the winner, Imblaze. She ran 2nd next up and the 3rd and 4th horses have since won. He then drew the inside at Counties and faded out in the slower inner ground. He won here over 1200m in this class in April and won another R65 at Te Rapa over 1400m this time last year on a Slow 9 track. He strikes the right R65 race and with Ashvin Goindasamy claiming 4kgs off, looks well placed to win another R65 race. RP $4.50, $7.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Seirios 1st $4  looked good finding the line fresh up and winning at Te Awamutu. His trial runs were ok after getting in the much slower inside ground and then getting back and checking off heels 400m out and near the line. He is ready to fire fresh up with 4kgs off to aid him.

4.Sun Genes goes well on the fresh side. He beat the smart Mission Hill fresh up on a heavy track. With the freshener he has to be a chance although his action and form says he needs a heavy track to be backed with confidence.

10.Falkirk Lass has been racing well enough to include in quaddies here. Last time Kate Cowan rode her was when she ran a strong close third at Tauranga. Gets 3kgs off to get to 53kgs and will slide forward and get her chance in just an average midweek field.

Other thoughts:

1.Atomic Blast led in his trial and showed little fight when headed 150m out.

3.He’s No Saint placed earlier in his career over this distance but is better suited to middle distances now. No trials and likely to need this.

 

Race 6

The speed map shows a slow to moderate tempo suiting the first 4 runners.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Shadow Dancer looked good last campaign and ran a nice third in her recent where she was 2nd outer and fought nicely without being pushed to run a close third alongside Beauty Way, who won last Sunday, and was going just as well. The side winkers go on ( they weren’t worn in the trial) and she should lead or share a moderate pace and being from the hot stable of Stephen Marsh, will be ready to win. RP $3.60

Dangers:

4.Myrcella 1st $5  last start closed off very fast late running by far the best last 200m of the race and day. She bolted in on a Slow track earlier in her career. Drawn out and wouldn’t want to get back off the slow tempo, so may be ridden out early. Very fit and ready to win though.

7.Jet Charged ran a strong 4th three back and was caught 3w in the open last start. With a good run she can win this.

5.Endean Express  goes well fresh. Ran third to Cote D’or fresh here last year. Gets 3kgs off and drawn to get a good run.

Other thoughts:

3.Cameahotfriday  is likely to be 3 back inner and with a slowish tempo is likely to be outsprinted.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Ali Baba has run a 1.35 1600m on a Good track so is probably the one who will benfit the greatest from an improved track. Training very well and his fitness and ability on better ground may overcome the 60kgs. RP $3.80, $5 Ff  

Dangers:

2.Divine Duke 1st $2.70  won very easily last start at Te Rapa and at Tauranga before that. Up in class but gets 4kgs off again. The speed has been taken out of it, except for Pythagorus who is likely to put the pressure on 600m out, but if he is caught at the back, he may just caught out in a sprint home. Has a 25 day break as well. I rate him a $2.70 chance so the $1.80Ff  is too short.

5.Pythagorus ran a good 4th last start and a better track may help. He also has  fitness edge on the above two.  “He’s a big dumb bugger. We have a jumping career in mind for him. He’s been working great and I think the improving track will suit him. He just blew out last start and has improved. I’d like to see Shaun put him in the race again as he did last start.”

 4.Blackmagicwoman always fights hard and if ridden forward, with the 4kgs off, she could be far enough in front of Divine Duke to make it hard for him. 35 day break no help though.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

8.Lady Day last start here had the blinkers go on and drew widest at her first run over ground at her third start. She settled well 7th outer and with 800m to run looked to be travelling every bit as good as the winner, Wilbermere. But she got onto heels about 550m out and lost ground at that crucial stage. Darren had to switch back to the slower inner while the winner got a break on her wider out on the turn. Once balanced up, she kept up a strong gallop, although she wanted to run in a little under the right hand whip. The last few strides she was pulling away from third horse and race rival, Gingee. Without that incident 550m out, she would have won. So this time, at her fourth run back and with that benefit of that conditioning run over ground last start, she looks very well placed from the good draw, to get an ideal run, plus with the 3kgs off again, she is going to very hard to beat. Rated Price $2.70, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

5.Banks Road has been running on ok o heavy tracks and a better ground will suit with his action. Trainer Mark Brosnan said. ” I think he’s a better horse than Magic Cannon( half brother) and on a better track I feel he will go alright.”

4.Cowboys Don’t Cry last start here worked to hunt through and lead and kept up an even pace to only be swamped late. Step to 2000m looks ideal.

2.Gingee beaten by Cassio and Lady Day last two starts. Fitter but a bit one paced.

Other thoughts:

1.Cassio has run two solid seconds but has had a 28 day break. May need it.

3.Canzac beaten by Cassio and Gingee last start and has had a 28 day break.

9.Vainglory 1st $3.80  ran on well here last start over 1600m looking like 2000m will suit now.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!