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Saturday September 15 preview below

Heads Up below- win a $20 multi for Hastings next week

https://soundcloud.com/user-243991756/sets/heads-up-september-14-2018

 

Good morning,

Some nice horses going round today on both sides of the Tasman with fine weather forecast for Ruakaka and Awapuni. Apologies, no updates today with family commitments.

Enjoy the ride.

 

The Money Shot’s best Sports bets are:

Argentina +10.5 v Australia Yes

All Blacks -22.5 points v South Africa

 

Bet of the Day  Flemington Race 4 3.Brutal $2.40 FF Yes $2.90 

Value bet of the Day Ruakaka Race 6 2.BT Junior $4.60 FF 2nd $1.60

Speed map Special Ruakaka Race 4 2.Transformer $2.60 FF

Sneaky of the day Awapuni Race 7 8.Dez $5.50 FF 3rd $1.70

Multi of the day Brutal into BT Junior

 

Flemington – there are showers forecast for Saturday between  0 and 3mm which will be fine on this quick draining track.

Race 4

Confidence: 4/5

3.Brutal  1st $2.90 was very impressive on debut, untouched with the whip at Caulfield. Then he drove hard late to win second up around Moonee Valley which did not suit him. Drawn to lead or take a sit and at the weights looks very hard to beat. RP $1.90, $2.40 FF

 

Ruakaka

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

11.Chapeau battled on well here fresh up in a harder field. Fitter and from the hot stable. RP $3.60, $3.20

Dangers:

3.Yulong Express looked good winning his trial. Drawn ideally and from the strong Tiley stable.

9.Power Of Strength fitter after two runs and gets 4kgs off.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

13.Imelda Mary raced well against better horses last campaign. Nice run on heavy ground which was unsuitable fresh up. Drawn to get all favours and fitter. RP $4.00 $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Call Me Murphy fitter now and 1400m ideal.

8.Sahar is set to fire fresh after winning his trial well.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Tiptronic is ready to win fresh up again. He won well at Te Rapa over 1400m fresh last campaign and looked ready to fire in his Te Teko trial. RP $4,$5.50 FF

Dangers: 3.Prom Queen  is the obvious danger from the good draw.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

2.Transformer was just beaten here last start when leading and was just beaten by a good horse in Amazing Grace. Nothing as good as him to nail him this time so he should be able to lead all the way this time. RP $2.00, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

3.Los Angeles 1st $5 should get a soft sit outside its stablemate and be a solid quinella chance.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Sistabeel has won fresh up and is ready to go after a good trial and Leith Innes will give her every chance. RP $4.50

Dangers:

8.One Baker Street 1st $3  drawn to get a good run and should be in it.

4.Felix Faure  will try for an all the way win and could do it if well rated.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5– they seem to take their turns in these races, and the new boy on the block, BTJ, looks well placed to have his turn.

2.Bee Tee Junior 2nd $1.60  looks well placed here third up. He is following an identical pattern to his last two campaigns starting over 1400m, then going to 1600m and winning third up over a middle distance. His closing sectionals show he is right back to his best. He rates on top after adjustments and drawn to get a good run about 4th or 5th with Leith Innes on board and get every chance to beat these home on 55.5kgs. RP $3.20, $4.80 FF after opening at $5.50 FF

Dangers: 

3.He’s Cavalier 1st $4.80 won well here last start and gets 3kgs off.

4.Major Tom fitter now after a good 2nd after a 34 day break. 2kgs off helps.

7.Jake The Muss always a chance in this kind of race.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

1.Sword Of Osman looked very good last campaign rating very strongly. He has been ridden quieter in his two trials and found the line very nicely. Drawn to jump and then look to take a sit with three on pace runners drawn out wide. From there, this very strong 3yo should be too good. RP $2.00, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

8.Melt 1st $2.20 won strongly here fresh up and will obviously be improved with that. Drawn to be 3 back inner or further back so will need a decent tempo and the gaps to get out and run down Sword of Osman.

4.Reevederci  looked very good on debut and drawn to get a good trip.

3.Madison County won impressively last campaign and is ready to fire from the Baker/Forsman stable.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

6.Richie McHorse  ran home well fresh up in a slowly run race. Fitter and goes well here. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers: 

1.Mongolianconqueror class horse of the field and could easily put these  away with a good run from the young apprentice with 4kgs off.

3.Yearn  is a good horse and if they go hard can slot in from the wide draw and be right in it.

9.Ohceedee big run to win last start at Hastings and drawn to get a good run.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

3.Final Suggestion just keeps on producing and drawn to get a good run on the pace. RP $4.50

Dangers:

8.Qian Gua  will need a good run but is a nice horse.

7.O’Guy  won well here last start and keeps fighting.

17.Rene game third here last start and ready now.

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

3.Igraine 1st $1.50 closed off strongly for second last start over 1600m in an on-pace race, beating Duellicious (3rd) who put up a big run last Saturday. She rated a career best FR of 108 then, better than any of these at their last start. She won her maiden in Germany over 2000m and from the inside draw, Lisa Allpress will be able to place her where she wants. RP $2.00, $1.85 FF

Dangers: 5.Hard To be Humble won well last start and gets in on a nice weight.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.Cornerstone may have beaten Revolution last start if he wasn’t hampered by him at Wanganui. Scratched from Woodville for this harder race ans Lisa Allpress stays with him. RP $4.00 $5.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Magic Ivan ran a game fifth in a harder field last Saturday. Just needs a good pace to be in this.

2.Obrigado did well last start but is still learning.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

4.King Cougar 1st $4was too good and too tough at Riccarton. Small field but there looks to be good speed so he can settle in behind them and challenge 100m out and be too tough and fit again on the slow track. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Gift Of Power trialed well but likely to get taken on here and she can fire up. She is best on a Dead or better track so $2.30 FF is too short.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

4.Beauden looked in need of his trial run at Te Teko on August 13th and ran well. Then he ran a game second fresh up at Hastings. He has won twice here over 1200m with Chris Johnson up.  There looks to be good speed in this, so Chris Johnson can slot him in off the pace and being fitter now, use that strength of his to get over these. RP $2.40, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

8.Tinkilicious  has won here and goes well fresh.

6.Choice Attitude  good third last start and fitter.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

3.Quaff put it altogether last start and won well. Drawn well with Lisa Allpress up. RP $4

Dangers:

6.Glimpse 1st $5 didn’t have much room in the last 200m at Hastings. This is easier.

5.Mia Piaci will appreciate the better ground. Game second to Imblaze before that.

4.Leading Role  closed off well fresh up and fitter now.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Lubaya  never saw daylight at Hastings. Nice horse and 1550m suits ideally with Chris Johnson up. RP $, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Animator  didn’t get much room to finish off last start fresh. Drawn to get on the rail which is ideal as he tends to run in.

3.Irish Flame  won well fresh up and is a nice horse.

11.The Heiress  1st $5.60 with Lisa Allpress up, will get every chance.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

8.Dez won really well at Riccarton over 1800m. Back to 1600m here and maps to get a good run behind the leaders. Lisa Allpress has gone for him over Rosewood and maybe the better track conditions swayed her and the lighter weight. RP $4.50,$5.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Authentic Paddy ran  a game second in this last year. Solid third in the Foxbridge and no luck in the Tarzino when caught 3 wide in the open. Drawn to get a good run on the pace and fitter third up.

5.Art Deco won strongly last week and should be spot on for this. An Improved track will help.

4.Rosewood always gives 100%. On a heavy track she would be harder to keep out though.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

13.Koko Belle  is ready to win fresh up. Won fresh up last campaign charging home in good sectionals. RP $5, $4.20

Dangers:

2.Abbey Road nice 2nd in his trial and strikes a weak field to kick off again.

3.Kirkenes  will be ready to fire fresh up.

6.Get Schroeder 1st $5 has won fresh up and looked ready winning his recent trial.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!