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Wednesday preview below

 

A reasonable day with Ujumpijump $4.50  and and Nakeeta Jane $5.50 both winning well.

Update 11.15 a.m.

The head to heads on the three good confidence races at Te Awamutu looks a good multi: $10 to return $46.30 Missed 

NZ Racing 19 Sep 2018 15:29 M2 R6 TE AWAMUTU RACES 1400m
H2H 4:Ujumpijump v 6:Swissilicious (Opt236)
$1.54 4:Ujumpijump
NZ Racing 19 Sep 2018 14:54 M2 R5 TE AWAMUTU RACES 1580m
H2H 4:TicketToRide v 6:ImpulsiveHabit (Opt255)
$1.58 4:TicketToRide
NZ Racing 19 Sep 2018 14:19 M2 R4 TE AWAMUTU RACES 1580m
H2H 6:TimeAlone v 9:ElJodi (Opt254)
$1.90 6:TimeAlone

Update: 9.40 a.m. next Update by 12.30 p.m.

I’ve done the form for the first three races and really, they can be won by any number of horses. I’m not into wasting money, so save your money on those races as there are much better bets later in the day here and in Australia.

I was caught out with the Good 3 posted this morning at Te Awamutu. With rain forecast last night I thought the Dead 4 track would get back closer to a slow one. So I have redone the form and found some very good value bets below, all with 3/5 confidence. They are below and I’ll post a completed preview by 10 a.m. as I’ll have to do the form for the other four races.

 

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5 Time Alone can upset the hotty here

6.Time Alone 6th  not Samantha’s best ever ride after being 3 wide in the open racing keenly. has by far the best Speed Rating of any of these over 1600m. He has had three runs back now and has a dry track action, so from the good draw with top rider Samantha Collett up, he can upset. RP $4.50, $11 and

Danger:

2.Ole Ole 1st $1.40 opened $1.65 for this and it is hard to argue against that price. He has rated strongly against better horses and had no chance on a bog and raced on a slid pace and had to weaken. Back in a weak R65 race where he should lead and be hard to beat.

9.El Jodi 2nd $2.90 qu $3.70  won fresh up over a middle distance last campaign. Looked good winning a recent trial and with the light weight, could swamp them late if they go hard.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 Ticket To Ride has the ratings and done the times to beat these.

4.Ticket To Ride 3rd and would have won easily with a clear go in the straight  beat a very strong field in an R75 race at Awapuni four starts back. Just beaten here last start and gets 3kgs off again. Has the best Speed Rating on a decent surface by far over 1600m with a close third at Ellerslie in 1.34.62. Should lead or take a trail and be very hard to run down with the rest of these needing a wet track to perform their best. RP $2.40, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Suggestive Heights will appreciate the better surface and drawn well.

7.Repo Sun  won well fresh up and didn’t handle the bog second up. Gets 3kgs off.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5 – Ujumpijump looks well placed to lead these all the way.

4.Ujumpijump 1st $4.50 has been placed in a 1.10 race at Te Aroha. Won well fresh at Tauranga beating the smart So Wicked and was beaten by the heavy ground second up in a tougher field. His action says he will certainly appreciate a Good track and drawn well to get a soft lead and looks very hard to run down. RP $2.40, $4 Ff

Dangers:

6.Swissilicious 2nd $2.50  will also appreciate the better ground. And gets 4 kgs off. Usually best off a decent tempo so she can unwind and unlikely to get that here. Could quinella qu $10  it though.

1.Aligns With Me  closed off strongly here last start over 1150m. Best form is on Slow or worse tracks and action says he needs that too, so $1.90 FF is just too short.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 One of the five below should win.

1.Below Zero 2nd $1.70 Tri $167 First 4 $843    ran a very good 4th at Ellerslie on a Good track when leading, but was given no peace to the turn, but kicked well, then headed 100m but fought well for 4th. Looked ready to win fresh up after sharing the pace in her trial and cruised clear to win by 6 lengths. Gets 4kgs off and drawn to get a good run on the pace. RP $3.50, $4 FF

Dangers:

3.Skaboom 4th  nice third on debut at Hastings and won her trial nicely in the slower ground. If the go hard, she can swamp them late.

11.Exemplar good second fresh up and outclassed at Wanganui. Wide draw no help.

7.Polly Grey  3rd $2.50 looked good winning her trial. Drawn ideally.

10.Patsys Lass  1st $5.40 will appreciate the good track and drawn well. Two good placings on decent surfaces.

 

Below are three Sectional Specials for Australia that all look well placed to win.

 

Warwick Farm

Race 2 3.25 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Nakeeta Jane 1st $2.60 with the ideal run and won well  looked good in her trials hitting the line stylishly for 2nd then 1st. She got back from her wide draw on debut but once out and balanced up, charged home for second in a good speed rating and her last 600m of 34.28 and last 200m of 11.46 compared very well in context to better class races off similar tempos. This time she has drawn the inside and she should be able to settle 3 back inner behind an even tempo. From there, she just needs to get out on the turn and this big strong striding 3yo filly is going to be very, very hard for the favourite Ranier, with blinkers on from a wide draw, to keep out. RP $3.50, $5.50 Ff

Cranbourne

Race 1

Confidence: 4/5

3.Zoology missed after getting a perfect run.  three starts back at the Gold Coast in a strong field worth $244k, he settled midfield outer off a solid tempo and closed off strongly for a close third in a strong field where 4 winners have come out of it. The race time of 1.08.87 compared very well with stronger fields and he was in front just past the post. He resumed with a nice fifth in an on pace race fresh up, then stepped to 1200m and was ridden along well out but kept finding for a close second in a fast speed rating. So third up here, where he will relish the 1400m, he has drawn to settle in the first six and with an even tempo likely, he looks very well placed to beat these. RP $1.70, $1.85 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 4/5

4.I Did It Again  2nd after getting 3 back inner and Grey Shadow with a smart ride skipping clear. beat the good sprinter Bandipur last campaign and was just run down by him at Caulfield over 1100m in a good speed rating after being 4 wide on the p[ace in the open. He trialed nicely after a break and fresh up drew out on the soft track and was 4 wide in the open, but kept up a strong gallop to almost look like he could win 100m out but the inside runners, who had better runs by far, beat him home for fourth. Drawn to get the lead early but with a couple of speeders out wide, may take a sit. And from there after getting an ideal run, looks very hard to keep out in this class of race. RP $1.80, $2.10 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!