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Saturday September 22 preview below

 

Update:

Steve’s $20 multi from Heads Up is on the tote: Cavallo Veloce, Avantage both to win into Scott Base for a place. Good luck.

Multi of the day: Cavallo Veloce with Scott Base 2.60 x 5.50 = $143  for every $10 bet.

Suggested quaddie: $16 for 10%

Leg 1: 2. Ricky Baker
4. The Mitigator
7. So Brazen
8. Swinging Skirts
9. Dream On
Leg 2: 1. Authentic Paddy
2. Ladies First
8. Big Mike
10. Nymph Monte
Leg 3: 7. Scott Base
Leg 4: 2. Dougie
4. Stradivarius
5. Beauty Way
6. Mongolian Marshal
7. Hartley
8. Sherrif
9. Flamingo
10. Glory Days

Good morning,

 

Vidcast below of Heads Up- win a $20 multi and the Money Shots best two sports bets being Storm -8.5 and Roosters -1.5 Yes to both

Our Track Walker was pleasantly surprised by the track. Brendan said, ” The back straight is around a Dead 5 to 6 but the straight is much firmer and with just showers forecast, it should remain a Deadish track. I can’t see any obvious bias in the straight with that rail out 3 metres and it should play fairly.”

Update by noon.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 2 6.Cavallo Veloce $2.60 FF

Speed map Special Hastings Race 5 1.Avantage $1.75 FF 1st $1.50

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 8 7.Scott Base $6 FF

Sneaky of the day Hastings race 1 7.High Spirits $7 FF 3rd $2.90

Other Good Confidence bets:

Hastings Race 3 10.Langkiwi $3.10 FF 2nd $1.40

Riccarton Race 2 11.Sacred Quartz $1.85 FF Scratched at barrier

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.High Spirits 3rd $2.90  really found the line well late here fresh up here in a race that suited the first half of the field.  She has furnished into a strong mare so 2100m is ideal now on a track she has won twice on over this distance. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Dangers:

2.Mental Telepathy found the line strongly here last start and the step to 2100m is ideal third up as he won third up last campaign doing the same. Should go forward and get a good run and being from the Baker/Forsman stable, will be fit enough.

9.Revolution  strong second here working on a good pace. Drawn to get a good run.

6.Centre Attention 1st $17  could get a softish lead and with the 3kgs off, can hold on for a place.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

6.Cavallo Veloce 5th after getting every chance  fresh up put in a huge effort to sit 5th 3 wide in the open on a fast tempo yet still kept closing on Cyber Attack late for a close second in the fastest of the three 1200m races. He’s drawn much better here and strikes a weaker race, so as long as he hasn’t been flattened by that, which I doubt as he looks a strong looking colt, he should get a better run on the pace and be very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

4.Star Performance looked good beating subsequent winners on debut. Got back and ran on nicely fresh up. Fitter and left handed may suit better.

8.Princess Amelie  1st $15.50 drawn nicely with the blinkers going on fresh from a good draw.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

10.Langkawi 2nd $1.40 ran a top race fresh up when he lost a couple of lengths at a vital stage when hitting the rail 500m out but rallied hard late for 2nd. He’s a very nice galloper and the 1300m suits better. Drawn out but has natural early speed to get on the pace and being fitter now, will be hard to beat with that nice weight. RP $2.50, $3.10 Ff

Dangers:

9.Thomas Aquinas ran some good races last campaign against nice horses. Looked ready to go after leading all the way in his trial.

 1.Matuzalem  won well on the first day and will be fitter.

3.Grand Eagle   good third last campaign and recent trial third will have him ready for this from the Pike stable.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Watch This Space won this race last year second up. Needed fresh run and maps to get a good run. RP $5, $5.80

Dangers:

4.Scandalo goes well fresh. Drawn well and gets 3kgs off.

6.Ruby Armani  should get a good trip and be a place chance.

8.Indecision 2nd  fitter for that fresh run and could try for an all the way win.

Race 5

The speed maps shows Miss Maxipark likely to lead Avantage and a moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Avantage 1st $1.50 looked ready to win fresh up when trialing on August 21st at Te Rapa where she was hard held till 150m out and wasn’t pushed after that for third and the form out of that has been very strong with Peaceful ( 5th winning and Simply Optimistic ( 1st) winning. She beat the boys easily last campaign running excellent times and sectionals. Against her own sex, at set weights, plus from the inside draw, she should get a winning run and only very bad luck should beat her. RP $1.40, $1.85 FF

Dangers: 

5.Rocket Fuel  won well last start and a better track will suit. Should land near the pace which will be the place to be.

2.Xpression has looked good winning his two races. Second up here, and will be better over more ground. plus will have to snag  back and rely on an even tempo at least.

7.Stella Noire  was backed as if unbeatable on the first day but disappointed. Blinkers go on and drawn well.

 

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

9.Dream On   looked good winning last start and will have been set for this since. Drawn to get a good run. RP $4.50

Dangers:

4.The Mitigator  ran some good races last campaign and will stronger this time round.

7.So Brazen with a good run likely can be in it.

2.Ricky Baker  looked better last start and with Lisa Allpress up, will get every chance.

Race 7

The speed map shows Big Mike leading with Authentic Paddy likely to sit outside him or trail him. China Star should land handy. Tempo will depend on how much Samantha Collett lets Big Mike stroll along. But picking an even tempo at best, so should suit all runners.

Confidence: 1/5

8.Big Mike  was just beaten by the smart Charles Road here last start after setting a fast pace. Fitter for that and should be able to dictate terms around an even tempo. If the inside is still ok, he could hold them out this time. RP $4,.50, $4.80

Dangers:

10.Nymph Monte won this last year and flew home here last start and the step to 2000m is ideal third up.

2.Ladies First  has been running home in good sectionals and gets to a winnable distance now third up with Lisa Allpress up.

1.Authentic Paddy   should get a good run on the pace and be a place chance.

Race 8

The speed map shows Melody Belle should be able to get out and have no trouble securing the trail or pop off and get the 1×1 after settling. 3-10-14 all out wide will go forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Scott Base really didn’t get out and balanced up till he hit the 200m mark in the Tarzino – he found the line in the fastest last 200m ( 11.57 ) stretching his neck out, of the race here fresh up in the Tarzino. He steps to 1600m here and will obviously be fitter. His two wins at Trentham, where he should not have won but flew late to win over 1400m, which was after a top class run to win at Ellerslie in 1.33.43 with a paralyzing late charge, indicates he is quite capable of performing at a high level in Australia, which many of these would never be able to do. That means even with just natural improvement in strength and fitness, he could go to the next level in this and his next few starts. He has been nominated for the Cox Plate, and if he wins here and does the same in the Livamol, we are going to be in for a real treat against Winx. He’s $101 to win that and $18 for top 3  so is worth a little each way just in case he keeps progressing as expected. The $7 and $2.60 for the Livamol will halve if he wins this.  He maps to land around midfield which will be ideal with Vinnie Colgan up. If he can get out and  balanced up on the turn, he is going to take a power of beating. He handles any track condition. RP $2.60. $5.80 Ff $7 in the Livamol and $18 for a place in the Cox Plate.

Dangers:

12.Melody Belle 1st $3.40  just has that will to win too. Drawn to get a winning run again and even though there is a doubt over her seeing out a strong 1600m against top improving horses, she is going to go down fighting.

2.Hiflyer  ran a game second to melody belle in the Tarzino, and the 1600m definitely suits him better. Awkward draw but he may go forward if he jumps well and be in a good spot.

13.Savvy Coup  2nd $2.40   also hit the line well in the Tarzino but feel she may just need this with the Livamol being her target.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

9.Flamingo ran on nicely late fresh up when she needed the run and there was little money for her. She will have been targeted for this second up and gets 3kgs off. Drawn to get a good run and be a solid eachway chance. RP $5, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Dougie with an improved track and with a good ride from the wide draw could do it.

6.Mongolian Marshall 1st $2.70 has won two trials well, but 1400m fresh up at 43 FF is a bit short.

8.Sherrif  looked very good last campaign. If they go hard can certainly swamp them.

Riccarton

Race 2

Confidence: 4/5

11.Sacred Quartz is a very nice looking galloper from the Tony Pike stable. He could have won his trial by lengths at Te Rapa and has been brought down to peak for the 2000 Guineas. Against this average maiden field, he should be able to slot in near the pace or even lead and be too good for this lot. Tony Pike thinks very highly of him. RP $1.40, $1.85 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!