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Sunday preview below

 Update: No further bets recommended.

Counties at Pukekohe Park

Good morning,

Some nice fields today on a Dead surface. Nothing I can recommend with 3/5 or better confidence, but some nice eachway chances. Maybe the quaddies are the way to go. Update by noon with any further bets.

Enjoy the ride,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 3 5.Silver Cloud $3 FF 1st $3.70

Value bet of the day Race 6 4.Van Diamond $5 FF 3rd $1.80

Speed map Special Race 4 9.Excelleration $9.50 FF  3rd $2.50

Sneaky of the day race 5 12.Saffron Lady $9.50 FF

First quaddie $12.80 for 10%

Leg 1: 1. Jager Bombed
2. Maybeashowoff
5. First Rock
7. Thousandkissesdeep
Leg 2: 2. Rough Cut
4. Lothbrok
9. Pearlescence
13. Arite Guru
Leg 3: 1. Secret Ambition
5. Silver Cloud
Leg 4: 3. Demonetization
5. Power O’Hata
9. Excelleration
11. Astor

 

Late quaddie $16 for 5% yes $600, $30 return

Leg 1: 1. Call Me Bob
3. The Kipling Girl
4. Irish Mist
10. Braavos
12. Saffron Lady
Leg 2: 1. Joe’s Legacy
2. Two Thirty
4. Van Diamond
7. Princess Sapphire
Leg 3: 1. Saint Emilion
3. Tomelilla
5. He’s Cavalier
8. Excalibur
Leg 4: 2. Fancy More
3. Podravina
5. Codecracker
7. Velveteen

 

 Speed maps are courtesy of Formpro Ratings

Race 1

Always an interesting race to watch and not to punt.

Confidence: 2/5

5.First  Rock looked the winner last start on debut and was outfinished late. Will be fitter and more experienced for that and with a good run likely in behind, can drive best to the line. RP $4

Dangers:

7.Thousandkissesdeep won her trial nicely and with a good run from the Tiley stable, can be right in it.

1.Jager Bombed showed plenty of speed to win his two trials but was very green left handed at Cambridge running wide on the turn. May be better right handed though but drawn wide so needs to do everything right so $2.20 is too short.

2.Maybeasowoff  looked professional winning her trial leading all the way. Dam was speed and won three races. Drawn to lead.

Race 2

The speed map shows  4.Lothbrook  likely to lead but many looking to be just in behind so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race. Rough Cut is a nice each way value bet.

2.Rough Cut 1st $9.90 with a tough run. has three of top four Formpro Ratings on a Dead or better surface. He drops back from R85 class and has been freshened up. He won fresh up over 1550m this campaign and ran third to Big Mike in a R85 middle distance. Gets topweight but deserves it back in this grade. Has early speed if asked for it, so should be able to slot in one off in the first half of the field and be a nice eachway chance. RP ( Rated Price ) $7, $11 FF

Dangers:

4.Lothbrook 3rd $1.90 has been racing well on slower tracks. He’s a big strong fella that should get a good run near the pace.

9.Pearlescence ran a  distance 2nd to Divine Duke at Te Rapa then jumped to a strong R72 race last start and had to move early or get caught in traffic. That cost her in the last 150m when she tired. This is easier And drawn to get a good trip with Danielle Johnson up.

13.Arite Guru rates well on a drier tracks too. He won this race last year on a Heavy 10 track but goes ok on better. Gets 4kgs off from Rebecca Scott who won on him this day last year and maps to get a similar run on the pace.

Race 3

The speed map shows four runners looking to go forward and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Silver Cloud 1st $3.70 won fresh up at Tauranga over 1200m on a dead track beating a couple of nice horses. Then ran second at Trentham to the smart Merlini in very fast closing sectionals. Broke 1.10 at Ellerslie over 1200m when she drew wide and finished hard to the smart Bevan Street.  She was scratched from Ruakaka 8 days ago because of a wide draw in a stronger R65 field. No trials form but didn’t have any when she won fresh at Tauranga. Maps to settle 3 back inner but Danielle might try and keep off the rail so she can get out on the bend and wind her up. But I”m sure she is the best horse in the race and with gaps opening early on the turn, she can get over these. RP $3.50, $3.60 Ff

Dangers:

1.Secret Ambition last campaign looked good winning second up over 1600m then ran a good 3rd in a $50k race at Ellerslie over 2100m. The key to him seems to be that he is two stones lighter and the way he looked and trialled at Avondale recently, says it was definitely the right decision. He slid to the lead and kept up a strong gallop to win without being touched, whilst the others weren’t. But he has bulked up and does look ready to fire fresh up. RP $4, $5.80

9.Magic Ruler has won on a Good track at Ellerslie over 1200m and ran some nice races against handy fields since. Has had two runs back on unsuitable heavy tracks and her action says she needs a better track. Drawn to lead or trail and is unlikely to get taken on, so is the one Silver Cloud has to run down.

7.Zappeur won second up last campaign and no chance in Heavy 11 fresh up. Fitter and drawn to get all favours.

3.Ifnot Wainot  won his maiden well and battled in his first go at R65 grade. Action says he needs a slow or worse.

Race 4

The Speed Map Shows Rich Billie Marsh should set at least an even tempo with five other runners looking to be outside him or just behind him ensuring a solid tempo suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky race with many nice horses resuming.

9.Excelleration 3rd $2.50 looked good last campaign running good times and excellent sectionals. She ran home strongly fresh up and is best suited ridden cold off a solid tempo which she should get here. Gets 3kgs off and nicely weighted on just 52kgs as she isn’t very big and can get over these late. RP $6, $9.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Power O’Hata is a tough mare and showed that beating Malambo at Te Rapa who has since won in Australia. Trialled nicely when 2nd outer and drove hard to win well. Drawn to get all favours and Matt Cameron suits her.

13.Astor looks ready to go after winning her two trials. Won in fast time at Ellerslie over 13oom. Wide draw makes it tough though. She will have to rely on luck if she jumps well or snag back and hope for a track into it. $3 FF is a bit short.

3.Demonetization unfortunately got injured last campaign when he looked set to take out the Derby. His early campaign sectionals showed that he was capable of special things, so after a quiet trial where he just ran along under his own steam, he would not surprise to see him win this. But I’m picking he will land behind midfield and angle into clear air and be allowed to stretch out strongly to the line. He may well win, but I want to see how he comes back in this ( after that injury) , then reassess him for longer trips as he is a grinding type.

Race 5

The speed map shows early speed from Braavos and Sunburst and wider runners may go forward early rather than risk being wide. A moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

12.Saffron Lady ran a strong finishing 2nd here fresh up in an R70 race on a Dead 4 track. Drawn to get a cosy trip and Jake Bayliss knows her well as he also won on her here over 1600m beating Big Mike. If she can get out evenly she can get 3 back inner and from there, looks nicely placed at the weights to upset these. RP $5.50, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Braavos 1st $6.70 and well rated by Leithal got a soft lead when he led all the way at Hastings against a good R65 field. But I did like the way he stuck his neck out and wanted to win. Back in May he won here over 1200m on a 1.12 track. Drawn to lead again and the map says he is unlikely to get a lot of midrace pressure, so can go back to back with Leith Innes rating him well.

3.The Kipling Girl  has the four best Formpro ratings over the last 12 months on a decent surfaces and won an Open handicap here last November. Drawn out but gets 3kgs off so with a good ride, can certainly be in this freshened up.

1.Call Me Bob  is in great form but it is all on heavy 11 tracks. However his action says a Dead track will be fine. Drawn to get a good run from the inside draw. Big strong horse so should copw with the 60kgs better than most.

Other thoughts:

4.Irish Mist rates well on better tracks. Has been racing against better fields and if he pinged and got into a handy spot, he is a chance  in an open race. Ran 2nd to Sacred Rhythm in an R75 on a good track at New Plymouth.

5.Cossack Warrior freshened up. Winning form is on heavy tracks and he gets his head down and outgrinds them. Drawn wide and likely to get back and with a moderate tempo will find it hard to get over these.

Race 6

The speed map shows no obvious pacemaker so how they jump and riders showing initiative could dominate here. A moderate tempo likely suiting on-pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Van Diamond broke through for a strong win at New Plymouth last start. He was given a few after turning in and responded really well relishing his work. His action says a dead 5 track will be fine. He put in very good efforts before then. Strong galloper and drawn to get a good run near the pace and despite being up in class, he should be right in this to the line. RP $3.70, $5 FF

Dangers:

2.Two Thirty 1st $7.40 fought well for third last start in a stronger R72 field. Drops back to R65 grade and drawn to get all favours.

7.Princess Sapphire ran an unlucky 6th at Trentham behind Darscape Princess on a Dead track in an R75 1400m race. Not suited to the slow track fresh up when the money was on.

1.Joe’s Legacy  2nd and was a good lay especially after the trainer said he wanted him to snag back off the likely moderate tempo ran a  good third fresh up 3 wide in the open off a moderate tempo. Last campaign he won second up over 1600m. He’s a nice galloper but the concern is with the lack of tempo likely, he may get caught back and wide or just wide so the $3 is a bit short.

Race 7

The speed map shows 6 runners likely to go forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

5.He’s Cavalier 3rd $1.90 tri $99   rated strongly last start with a career best Formpro Rating of 112 at Ruakaka over more ground. He gets in here with 53kgs and is rock hard fit. From the draw he will get a good run with his early speed and from there, with his fitness edge, that could just make the difference over the last 100 metres. RP $5, $8.50 Ff

Dangers:

3.Tomelilla 1st $4.50 has rated well in strong fields and has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark. Drawn to get a cosy trip and will driving hard at the end with Matt Cameron up.

1.Saint Emilion  won fresh up last campaign with 60kgs off a trial win. Has had two trials this time. And drawn well.

8.Excalibur 2nd $2.20  nice 4th fresh up in a sprint home. Better suited here up to 1600m with a better tempolikely.

Race 8

The speed map shows and even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Fancy More 2nd $1.50 tri $33 First 4 $86   put in a top effort to run second fresh up. After snagging back from a wide draw, she had to get out widest after turning home and charged home. She has developed into a strong looking 4yo mare and the step to 1600m looks ideal second up where she can snag back and with an even tempo likely in the small field she can get over these. RP $3.00, $4.20

Dangers:

7.Velveteen 4th closed off strongly last start when the slow tempo didn’t suit. But she hit the line hard late running the second fastest last 200m all day, faster than winner Verry Elleegants. She will be fitter for that and the tempo looks ideal for her to come at these late.

3.Podravina 1st $2.30 looked like a quick improver out of Hastings from the Baker/Forsman stable. She isn’t a $2.20 chance though against these.

5.Codecracker 3rd $1.80  fights well and should be on the pace and if they do back off midrace, could prove hard to catch.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!