Race 2 4.Vernanme beaten by the tempo and getting in a pocket which is a symptom off slow tempos Stephen Marsh said this morning on Trackside Radio, ” Certainly far too short. He’s probably more a mile and a quarter sort of a horse. But he does have a lot of class and still very hard to beat, but the $2 is a touch short for mine.”
Every man and his dog and probably the cat as well, are on this fella. He was mentioned here on Trackside by trainer Stephen Marsh two weeks ago but didn’t give his name out, but Pops found out who it was and everyone noted him down to get on here. But $2 about a first starter on a Slow track from the inside draw is just no value and lay of the day. With many unknown debut runners things can get messy in running if they go slow as well. So maybe a race fit and peaking 1.Capellani, who did very well last start running home in the fastest last 600m of the race by far, is the value bet at $6.50 and $1.95 Ff but probably more by start time as they will really talk this fella up.
Matamata is slow 7 with drizzle, which makes it very tricky to punt into some races. Many riders will come back saying their mount didn’t handle it or it was too quick for them. But the ones detailed are all proven on slow tracks. But there are three Good Confidence bets plus one in Australia at double figure odds. An update will be posted by noon.
Bet of the day Matamata Race 7 7.Seirios $3.20 FF 3rd
Value bet of the day Race 6 6.Animator $5 FF
Other good bets:
Matamata Race 8 14.Harbourside $2.30 FF 2nd
Rosehill Race 6 1.Arraignment $15 and $4.20 FF 3rd
Suggested quaddie for $10 for 62%:
|Leg 1:||4. Ripley
8. Nuclear Fusion
9. Belle Fascino
|Leg 2:||1. Athena Baby
5. Wooden Edge
7. Kyrie Eleison
|Leg 3:||7. Seirios|
|Leg 4:||14. Harbourside|
Race 6 6.20 p.m.
1.Arraignment two good runs over distances too short for him. Third up over 1500m is ideal. He won over 1600m at Tauranga fourth up on a good track in good time. Then he ran second to Group 3 winner Saint Emillion at Ellerslie over 1500m. Drawn to get a good run near the pace this time, and fitter. RP $7, $15 FF
Pass on this bookies benefit race.
Another bookie benefit race
It sure doesn’t get any easier so pass.
Pass again- Good time to put the slow cooker on for tea tonight
The first leg of the quaddie
Confidence: 1/5 in an open race
8.Nuclear Fusion was held up fresh up going ok. Ran well second and won third up last campaign. RP $4, $3.70
9.Belle Fascino certainly capable of winning but may well be a runner that comes back with the excuse of saying the track was too wet for it.
11.Nuttee if the inside is off, could upset. Goes well here.
4.Ripley nice horse drawn the inside. Probably too short but if they go hard, can bomb them.
The speed map shows Windy Height should lead and Animator can trail or be three back on the fence which is ideal for him.
6.Animator has had two runs back now and is ready for 2000m. But he needs things to go his way and barrier 1 is a necessity for him. He wants to get his head to the side in the straight and proves a tough ride. So with the fence on his inside, that is what he needs to keep him straight and his mind on the job. He has the Visor Blinkers and cheek burrs going on, and with Christopher Dell on board, who is a strong rider, he can trail or be three back and from there, and will be in the right place to wait for the rails run to come and drive home. He has won on heavy and good tracks so track no concern unless the rail is well off. RP $4.00
5.Wooden Edge gets in on a good weight and any rain only helps.
The speed map shows Seirios should lead and get it his own way.
7.Seirios fresh up here was a bit fresh and led a bit keenly. But he kept finding to hold on in by far the quickest speed rating all day of 109 which means he will cope with a step up in grade. He’s a strong fella and won second up last campaign over 1400m. He maps to slide to the lead again and the 1600m looks ideal. Gets 4kgs off again and although up in class, looks well placed to take this out. His two wins have come on Slow 7 tracks so even if it gets to a heavy 10, he will be fine. RP $2.40
1.Gundown is a nice horse but 61kgs, fresh up over 1600m on a track he is unlikely to relish, means you can’t back him with any confidence, especially at $2.20 FF
14.Harbourside ran a strong second to Qiji Phoenix who has won two since that. Fresh up drew wide in a stronger Special Conditions race at Hastings and began evenly but had to snag for cover. Once clear, he ran on strongly for fourth alongside Tipperary Mary who won well next up and Langkawi, who almost won. Gets in nicely at the weights in a weaker maiden field. Just needs a decent ride from Coleman to get him home. A Slow 7 or 8 should be ok and the wide draw may be an advantage by this time of day. RP $2.50
10.Palamedes has had a few goes but ran a strong second last start. Looks the main danger.
5.Swiss Stinger nice run on debut when finding the line well late. Fitter and if the inside is of, can be in this.