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Saturday October 6th preview below

 

Update 5.19 pm.

Thanks for joining in the syndicate. We had a bit of a ride but the stars didn’t align late in the day.

Update 4.14 p.m. Buga! It was all going onto Savvy Coup then Love Affair if we got him home.  Straight treble for $64.50 11-4-8

Update 3.55 pm $2850 win on 5.Mongolian Marshal leaves $64 balance. Fingers crossed!

Update: 3.22 Trifecta for 5 and 9 for 1st and 2nd either way in the trifecta with the field for third for $150 for 6.81 %  $2914.50

 

Update 3.09 A good win. $1220 return. Everything worked out well for them. New Balance $3064

Update 2.44 p.m. $200 win 5.Madison County Balance $1844.50

Update 2.23 p.m: $1150 return for a new balance of 2044.50 thanks to you riding them both hard!

Update: $500 quinella 8.Lincoln Falls  and 13.Langkawi.

Update 1.55

That’s more like it. $994.50 returned and new balance is $1394.50

 

Update:

1.32 $150 % box trifecta 2-4-7-10-11-12 for a 1.25 unit

Update: 1.13 p.m.

Power O’Hata 3rd and had an ideal run. Balance $550

Update 1 p.m. $500 win on 6.Power O’Hata ( all bets are on tote- no Final Field betting allowed )

Update 12.35

All around it but Amazing Az couldn’t catch them in time- 4th. Balance $1050

Update: 12.24

Amazing Az looks very fit and ready.

Race 1 bet

All trifectas

5 to win with 1,2,3,6,7,8 for 2nd and 3rd in$10 trifectas Cost $300

1,2,3,6,7,8 to win, 5 for second, and 1,2,3,6,7,8 for third in  $5 trifectas Cost $150

Total bet $450, balance $1050

 

 

 

Update 11.22am No other bets recommended.

For those in the Punter Of The Year syndicate we have $1500 to start with. The average winning total for the last ten years has been around $15,000. There are around 160 teams entered so it will be worth winning! I want to see horses in the birdcage and go round to the start for most races then place the bet and then post it on here as soon as possible.

Thanks for joining in. I’ve done a lot of homework on the fields so if lady luck is on our shoulder, we could be in the hunt.

Good morning,

There is high cloud around at Hastings and the odd shower forecast. So it should be a great day of racing.

I’ll update by noon and the Punters Challenge bets will be posted on this page as well.

Bet Of The day Race 8 11.Savvy Coup $2.10 FF 1st $1.90 

Value bet of the Day Race 2 6.Power O’Hata $4.80 FF

Sneaky of the day Race 5 5.Madison County $6.50 FF 1st $6.10

 

Our Track Walker Brendan said, ” It looks very even and there is no obvious bias. With fine weather and maybe the odd shower Saturday it should be no worse than a Dead 4. The first day the pattern suited on pace and near the inner. A lot of that was tempo based and maybe just the best horses raced near the pace.”

Race 1

The speed  map shows Look Out and Rough Cut from out wide, along with Los Angeles  will go forward with a few inside the 8 barrier that will look to get handy. An even tempo is likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Amazing Az has looked to have the potential to make it to open class right from his first start when charging home for second to Final Suggestion who won the R72 last Saturday at Avondale. He was blocked after that and ran on late. Third up he won easily over 1600m running faster time than the R65 winner over the same distance. Then last start, over 2100m, stepped up to 2100m which trainer Chris Gibbs said he was always going to excel at. He relaxed nicely midfield and sustained a strong finish to win well he’s a long loping galloper suited to the 2200m here. He maps to settle 10th outer and the tempo look even so he should be able to get a track into it and with his determined style of racing, he is going to be coming very hard at these over the last 200 metres and be hard to keep out. RP $3.20, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

3.High Spirits was ridden closer here second up and got out wider after they buttoned off midrace, and put her head down and kept trying to get up for third – a nice effort considering the first two got better runs leading and second outer.

1.Rough Cut 1st $18 certainly appreciated the better track last start and did it the hard way wide and working most of the way. Will go forward and with a good run up in class, can place.

8.Los Angeles will look to lead and if not taken on, could pinch a break and make it interesting.

Other thoughts:

7.Aigne had a tough run last start and will be improved by that. Drawn well.

6.Vittachi ran home well fresh up over 1600m. Was an unlucky 2nd at Ellerslie beating Rough Cut last year.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows good early speed from De Niro and Gift Of Power with three runners near the inner likely to kick up looking for the trail behind who ever leads.  An even tempo likely as runners should get into position early.

 

Confidence: 2/5

6.Power O’Hata 3rd $1.80 won three races on end left handed last campaign. She showed that will to win in all three beating the smart hanger in one and Malambo, who has won in Australia since. She trialed and won strongly left handed at the Cambridge trials then at Pukekohe fresh up settled a distant 4th and was awkward onthe bend and never seemed to get into her stride down the straight. Maybe she is just better left handed as she has shown. She will be improved by that run anyway, so from the good draw, she can tuck in behind the early speed, then Matt Cameron can ease her out on the turn and she responds well for her, and with the nice weight advantage over Gift of Power, is the one they will all have to hold out. RP $4, $4.80 Ff and one I want to have a good look at before the race.

Dangers:

1.Gift Of Power was allowed to hunt through and lead last start then when pressed by Manhattan street started to over race. Johnson nursed round the turn but she was headed by King Cougar and couldn’t fight back to beat him. So with five other runners having enough speed to make her work from the wide barrier, she is going to fire up again and even if she can cross and lead, she is going to be vulnerable late again with some nice horses with less weight getting better runs. So the $2.30 FF is just too short to take.

3.De Niro  trialled nicely for second behind Volpe Veloce. Goes well here and if he can lead then take a trail behind Gift Of Power, can be in the fight.

9.Vinnie’s Volley is getting better with each start. This is a step up again but gets the right draw to get a good run and with the light weight, if the others go too hard, she could get through them late.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

12.Pink Graffiti bolted in here over 1300m and freshened up. Has form on better tracks and Leith Innes knows her well. Nice trial getting home late after being held up and drawn to get every chance. RP $4.80

Dangers:

10.Devine Love won easily at Tauhrenikau and fresh up ran home nicely in 33.93 without being punished for third in a stronger R72 race . Drawn to get a good trip  and looks well placed. RP $3.70

7.Blondlign 1st $18won very impressively at Wanganui on a Slow track in a faster time than the Open and 3yo fillies race. She went out hard and still ran faster times then them. The firmer track is a query but if she can cross and get 2nd outer, she may hold on for a place.

4.Hugo The Boss will have been set for this and drawn ideally.

 

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

8.Lincoln Falls looked very good at the trials when he was hard held. Then on debut showed just what he could do when let go and powered away to impressively in similar rime to the R72 race. His closing sectional off that tempo was 34.42 which in the context of the speed ratings for the day was very good. He just need a fairly trouble free run to beat these over 1400m which looks ideal for him. Lisa Latta avoided the HB guineas with him as he is still learning and that is a high pressure race. It will pay off come November at Riccarton. He has enough early speed to land in the first six and from there should be a class above these.RP $1.90

Danger:

13.Langkawi 1st $2.40 is a nice horse and 1400m suits now with the side winkers going on. Drawn to lead and was just beaten by Madison County here last campaign with a gap to third. If he gets his own way in the lead and Lincoln Falls gets caught up, it will be a very interesting finish.

10.Out Of The Park did well fresh up covering extra ground. Drawn to get the ideal run.

3.Starrybeel is ready to fire up fresh after a very nice trial.

Race 5

The speed map shows Sword Of Osman, King Louis, Bobby Dazzler and a few out wider likely to go forward ensuring  a fast  tempo suiting runners off the pace.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Madison County 1st $6 won really well here second up over 1300m sitting 3 wide on the pace and beating the handy Langkawi. Then fresh up at Ruakaka over 1200m  from the draw began well then eased out of the speed duel, then kept up a strong gallop to run second and found the line the best of anything. Melt had a cosy trip along the inside which proved to be a motorway all day. So for him to make up the ground like he did and get so close was an excellent effort. The step to 1400m is ideal as he relaxes well and has the action of horse needing 1400m now. Drawn out but with the strong tempo likely, Matt Cameron should get be able to just snag back for cover and with a good track into it, he can repeat that fresh up run, which he should do as his win here was second up, he can win this. RP $4.00, $6

Dangers:

13.Melt has won her two races really well and improved lengths to win last start. So third up, she should be close to her peak with the 1000 Guineas next month her target. Her one failure last campaign was on a firm track at Ellerslie when she just didn’t let down how we know she can. So it may pay to watch her in the prelim to see how she goes down and how firm the track is before then.

2.Sir Nate looked in need of the fresh up run and is the type of horse that will get better as the distances increase. Drawn to settle around midfield and the good tempo will allow him to get into it.

12.Star Performance  ran on very nicely for third here two weeks ago giving the impression 1400m off a strong tempo would suit.

Other thoughts:

1.Sword Of Osman had his chance fresh up and just didn’t fire. He may be better left handed,  but it is hard to get any confidence about him here in a harder field despite the good draw where he should get his chance.

8.Cavallo Veloce  put in a top effort fresh up when 3 wide in the open on a good tempo and almost got up. Then second up had every chance and didn’t fire. A combination of being second up and needing more ground, may have been the reasons. Gets 1400m now and the blinkers go on from a good enough draw. Could place at good odds.

6.Qiji Express  got all favours last start and won well. Drawn wide here with plenty of speed inside him. So needs a 3 wide with cover run or will be in trouble if he has to work too hard to get 2nd outer.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.The Mitigator 1st $6.60 won well over 1600m at Pukekohe leading all the way then ran a close third at Ellerslie trying to lead all the way but was swamped late. He looked stronger when he ran a good 4th here fresh up outside a good tempo and fought well. He should get a softer time in front here and with at run under his belt, could prove hard to catch. He has the fastest time over 1600m and maps to lead and get his own way. RP $4.50

Dangers:

9.Le Sablier won strongly here last start and drawn to get a similar run. 1600m suits better too.

4.Spondulux can run time on a better surface and gets 3kgs off from a good draw.

16.Van Diamond always gives his best and with a good run should in it.

Race 7

The speed map shows Heavens keep and Sacred Rhythm likely to look to lead, with Mongolian Marshall, Hartley, The Kipling Girl and Flamingo hunted out to get in behind them handy. A moderate tempo is likely from there suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 3/5

5.Mongolian Marshal  fresh up here began well, showed good early speed then eased 6th inner and travelled nicely. Once balanced up he stretched out like a good horse and then always looked like he would get up over Hartley and did late. They didn’t go hard in that race so it wouldn’t have taken much out of him. Strong fella and Andrew Forsman thinks a great deal of him. So from the good draw, he should land about 5th or 6th again, and over 1600m, which will suit even better, where he won in 1.34.30 over 1600m at Ellerslie, 6 lengths faster than anything else in this race, he does look very well placed to win again. He was a dashing 7th second up last campaign so no concerns with that. RP $1.90, $2.10 FF

Dangers:

8.Hartley was just beaten by MM here last start. He loomed up 200m out and fought well. I reckon he needs blinkers as he didn’t seem to want to go past the horse inside him, so MM has him covered again.

7.Beauty Way closed off strongly from the back with the tempo against him behind MM. If he can jump and  land closer to the pace, he is in this.

12.Fawn looked an improver behind MM fresh up. Has won 2nd and third up over 1600m.

Race 8

Livamol Classic Open WFA

The speed map shows Contessa Vanessa, Big Mike, Saint Emilion and Authentic Paddy all going forward early. Danzdanzdance  will look for cover according to the trainer and should get that. At least an even tempo likely but more likely that they will average around 12.30 per 200m to the 600m mark setting it up for runners with cosy runs off the pace.

Confidence: 3/5

11.Savvy Coup 1st $1.90 has had the ideal build up to this race which has been the target for the Pitmans this campaign. Last campaign, she nearly always ran the fastest last 200m no matter what the tempo. She used to over-race which didn’t help, but when she learnt to settle, she was nearly unbeatable. She won the Eulogy, Lowland Stakes and Oaks with those devastating bursts. Last start here in the Windsor Plate she was bolting on the turn and was late getting clear and used that quick action sprint to get up for second running the fastest last 600m of 34.37 and 11.18 for her last 200m of the race. Considering Stratocaster on the same day ran home in the the fastest of  10.81 for his last 200m off a slow tempo, it shows that she is right on top of her game and ready to bury these. The query is can she get the tempo to get over these and get the gaps in time? The answer to both is yes. I’d guess they will run around 12.30 200m sectionals to the 600m mark and many will start moving early from the back which flushes the ones about 5th or 6th out. She maps to be around 7th outer, so the gaps should open up and also get the gaps to balance up in time. Chris Johnson knows her very well and is likely to wait until the right moment to unleash her and I just can’t see anything capable of beating her home with that turn of foot. The only way she could get beaten is if they go very hard and set it up for a horse like Scott Base, a big strong horse who will relish that tempo. But she does look perfectly placed on 55.5kgs, getting weight off her main rivals. Rated price $1.70, $2.10 FF

Dangers:

7.Scott Base had everything go wrong for him last start in The Windsor Plate. Slow out, got back behind the wrong runners and didn’t get a chance to wind up until the race was all over. He’s the type of horse that needs a good tempo and room to wind into it. Savvy Coup did show a much superior turn of foot in the last 200m though last start here. But he should get that here and the harder they go, the more Savvy Coup’s sprint will be negated. So he does look the main danger with the decent tempo. Rated price $6.50, $7.50 FF

10.Our Abbadean  also found the line hard behind savvy Coup here last start. The extra distance will obviously help as with the decent tempo. Opie Bosson jumps on and will likely snag for cover and look to track the right horse into it and should be a strong  place chance. Rated price: $8, $9 FF

12.Danzdanzdance is looking to do what very few horses can ever do – win a Group 1 middle distance off a 1400m win fresh up! Co trainer Chris Gibbs said, “She is very forward and I couldn’t have been happier with her work on Saturday. Drawn 4 and couldn’t be happier with that. I’d like her to get cover.”  She did very well last campaign but did look like she would definitely be even better this campaign. Drawn to get a cosy run and she is a clean  winded mare so it is not as big a negative as it sounds. RP $10, $11 FF

Race 9

The speed map shows Ugo Foscolo going forward from out wide along with Magnum, Tiptronic, and Amarula getting a good run from the inside barrier. A moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field. Ugo Foscolo may get a softish time in front making it harder for them to get out wider and beat some nice horses up font home.

Confidence: 3/5 in what looks a two horse race with Love Affair and Te Akau Shark but if Ugo Foscolo.

4.Love Affair is mare who can run closing sectionals that only top class horses can do. She put away the Railway winner Volpe Veloce fresh up in April this year. In her last trial she finished full of running and is ready to reproduce those closing sectionals on a decent surface. She should land about 8th outer and will be in front of Te Akau Shark who maps to land about 2 or 3 lengths behind her. From there, I feel that is enough head start on him to beat him and the rest home. Top trainers have her ready as well.  Co trainer Andrew Forsman said, ” 1400m fresh up only race day fitness may be against her. She has worked really well and should be right in this.” RP $2.50, $2.90

Dangers:

3.Amarula got all favours here last start and won well. He always goes well here. Drawn to get a cosy trail behind Ugo Foscolo and if the tempo makes it a print home and the inside is playing on pace, he is going to the one Love Affair and Te Akau Shark have to run down. RP $4.50, $9.00 FF and $2.70 FF place

11.Te Akau Shark 1st $2  was very impressive when winning on the first day beating Lin’ on a Prayer who won easily at Avondale last week. But this is a definite step up in class and he maps to settle last and i can’t see them going harder than an even tempo, which means he will need to get going 600m out and probably have to get out the widest. With Love Affair and Amarula in front of him, he is going to have to be really good to win, especially if the pattern of the day is playing on pace. RP $4.80, $2.90 FF is too short because of those reasons.

9.Tiptronic has won two from two second up and maps to get a chance to make it three from three. May find one or two of the above three runners too good this time though.

Race 10

The speed map tells us Swissswatch, Kaipawe, Hinerangi, Soroc and Braavos  with many looking to get in behind those so at least an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 1/5

6.Hinerangi looked like she would take a lot of improvement out of her good trial second to Saint Emillion at Cambridge where she wore the blinkers, began well, sat 2nd outer and wasn’t pushed late to run 2nd with a gap to the rest. She won fresh up at Tauranga without the blinkers then won two in a row at Trentham over 1600m. She’s a very strong mare who with a good run on the pace likely, be the one they have to beat.  RP $4.50

Dangers:

8.Danger Dee won very strongly on the first day in a good speed rating over the same distance. Drawn to get a similar trip and if the inside is playing ok, can be right in this.

10.Swisswatch 1st $3.40 did well fresh up 3w in the open to keep on for fourth. Looks stronger now and from the inside draw, could lead them a merry chase.

2.Irish Flame needs a good ride from out there but with Opie on, can get that. Has a good horses weight.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!