The answer to can Savvy Coup win on Saturday?

Can the hot favourite, Savvy Coup, justify her $2.10 price and take out the big Group 1 Livamol on Saturday at Hastings? The answer really does to seem to be yes. Only bad luck or a very fast tempo can beat her. Below is the speed map of the race, which looks ideal for her, plus her closing sectionals over distances too short for her, have been outstanding. An update for races 5 and 9 will be posted by noon Thursday for subscribers.

Race 8

Livamol Classic Open WFA

The speed map shows Contessa Vanessa, Big Mike, Saint Emilion and Authentic Paddy all going forward early. Danzdanzdance  will look for cover according to the trainer and should get that. At least an even tempo likely but more likely that they will average around 12.30 per 200m to the 600m mark setting it up for runners with cosy runs off the pace.

Confidence: 3/5

11.Savvy Coup has had the ideal build up to this race which has been the target for the Pitmans this campaign. Last campaign, she nearly always ran the fastest last 200m no matter what the tempo. She used to over-race which didn’t help, but when she learnt to settle, she was nearly unbeatable. She won the Eulogy, Lowland Stakes and Oaks with those devastating bursts. Last start here in the Windsor Plate she was bolting on the turn and was late getting clear and used that quick action sprint to get up for second running the fastest last 600m of 34.37 and 11.18 for her last 200m of the race. Considering Stratocaster on the same day ran home in the the fastest of  10.81 for his last 200m off a slow tempo, it shows that she is right on top of her game and ready to bury these. The query is can she get the tempo to get over these and get the gaps in time? The answer to both is yes. I’d guess they will run around 12.30 200m sectionals to the 600m mark and many will start moving early from the back which flushes the ones about 5th or 6th out. She maps to be around 7th outer, so the gaps should open up and also get the gaps to balance up in time. Chris Johnson knows her very well and is likely to wait until the right moment to unleash her and I just can’t see anything capable of beating her home with that turn of foot. The only way she could get beaten is if they go very hard and set it up for a horse like Scott Base, a big strong horse who will relish that tempo. But she does look perfectly placed on 55.5kgs, getting weight off her main rivals. Rated price $1.70, $2.10 FF

Dangers:

7.Scott Base had everything go wrong for him last start in The Windsor Plate. Slow out, got back behind the wrong runners and didn’t get a chance to wind up until the race was all over. He’s the type of horse that needs a good tempo and room to wind into it. Savvy Coup did show a much superior turn of foot in the last 200m though last start here. But he should get that here and the harder they go, the more Savvy Coup’s sprint will be negated. So he does look the main danger with the decent tempo. Rated price $6.50, $7.50 FF

10.Our Abbadean  also found the line hard behind savvy Coup here last start. The extra distance will obviously help as with the decent tempo. Opie Bosson jumps on and will likely snag for cover and look to track the right horse into it and should be a strong  place chance. Rated price: $8, $9 FF

12.Danzdanzdance is looking to do what very horses can ever do – win a Group 1 middle distance off a 1400m win fresh up! Co trainer Chris Gibbs said, “She is very forward and I couldn’t have been happier with her work on Saturday. Drawn 4 and couldn’t be happier with that. I’d like her to get cover.”  She did very well last campaign but did look like she would definitely be even better this campaign. Drawn to get a cosy run and she is a clean  winded mare so it is not as big a negative as it sounds. RP $10, $11 FF

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402