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Wednesday preview below

 

Update 11.40 : The head to head options are very well hidden, so well, I can’t find them as at 11.39 a.m! Watch for another update by 12.15 in case they are up after race 1

Some notable market movers with good chances below.

Good morning,

There are some very open big fields at Te Aroha. I have previewed the last quaddie and two races from Caulfield. I’ll post an update by 11.45 with any head to head bets in the earlier races at Te Aroha or elsewhere.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Caulfield race 1 2.Valac $3.30 FF 4th

Value bet of the day Caulfield Race 5 2.Encryption $5 FF  2nd

Other good bets:

Te Aroha Race 9 1.Don’tblamethemusic $4.50 FF 2nd 

Te Aroha Race 11 7.Cleaver $7.50 FF  2nd 

Suggested quaddie for $12.60 for 5%

Leg 1: 3. The Magnate
12. Tintero
14. Dawn Jessie
15. Yatima
Leg 2: 1. Don’tblamethemusic
2. Barcelo
3. Inca Warrior
Leg 3: 1. Iago
5. Link Road
6. Princess Origami
7. Ritani
9. Hypnos
10. Fine Bouquet
14. Matauri
Leg 4: 6. Konstantina
7. Cleaver
9. Flourishing

 

Caulfield

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.Valac ran 2nd to Steel prince two starts back but revferse the runs they got and Valac would have won. Valac won easily next up. Meets Steel prince 0.5kgs better off this time and will likely settle in front of him and be very hard to beat with James McDonald up. RP $2.50, $3.30 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

2.Encryption was unlucky fresh up then ran on late here for fifth over 1200m after being held up. Then last start they put the blinkers on him and after settling back in the big field, could not get  a go until about 100m out but showed a rare turn of foot to blast past and win easily. He has been kept fresh for this $380,000 race  and the small field suits. Craig Williams knows what he is capable of now and with Written Tycoon being vulnerable late, especially if something takes him on or he gets a bit keen again, Williams will be getting him into the right place on the turn to get the last go at him. RP $2.40, $5 FF

Danger:

1.Written By fresh up over 1000m was keen and was under pressure 150m out and just held on over the 1000m. So if he is keen again the 1200m trip second up makes him no $1.70 shot.

 

Race 8 first leg of the quaddie

Confidence: 1/5

15.Yatima  looked good stretching out well when 2nd to subsequent easy winner Marcellina in her September trial and in her last one settled well 6th and once clear 100m out worked home nicely under her own steam. Drawn out but looks the goods. RP $5

Dangers:

3.The Magnate good third fresh up and could have won second up last campaign with a clear run.

12.Tintero back from an R65 race and to 1400m will suit from a good draw.

14.Dawn Jessie  two strong late finishing trials. Drawn to do nothing with Sam Collett on board.

Race 9

The speed map shows Don’tblamethemusic leading with Barcello likely to get 2nd outer early and maybe hand up to Inca Warrior. I can’t see then taking Don’tblamethemusic on so a moderate tempo suiting the first 4 runners.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Don’tblamethemusic  relaxes well and is likely to get a soft lead. His best form has been up to 1300m but he does look stronger now and is very fit. Plus he gets 4kgs off again to bring him down to 58.5kgs. He rated 104 last start and needs to rate 105 to win. He should get every chance to do that and looks well placed to lead all the way as long as the inside is still ok. RP $3.20, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Barcelo had no favours last start in a stronger R82 field when caught wide in the open off a solid tempo, so had no chance to finish off. Fitter for that and third up here where he maps to get 2nd outer or in the 1×1 if Inca Warrior wants 2nd outer. The winkers go on and blinkers off. He’s carrying affair bit of weight but the tempo and pluses could cancel those out.

3.Inca Warrior has won twice over 1400m from 2nd outer on wetter tracks. Maps to get there again with a soft time and even though the better ground maybe against him, he can hang on for a place.

5.The Boy Wonder  is best suited to sitting off a solid tempo and then using his gritty finish to get over them. Likely to be 3 back inner here and with a moderate tempo, be running on for a place at best. $3.30 FF is too short.

10.Supera  is a nice mare. Her two wins came off trailing and back off a decent tempo over 1600m. From the wide draw, she is likely to have to snag and rely on a decent tempo which looks unlikely and be reliant on something going forward and setting it up for her. $3.30FF is too short for those reasons.

6.Donizetti has had two trials and needed a trial and a run last campaign before winning. Speed map says she could end up 8th inner and with the tempo against, may find the sprint home too much.

Race 10

The speed map shows good early speed from inside to outside so an even tempo at least  suiting all runners and a good run will be needed to win.

Confidence: 1/5

1.Iago  nice horse with a nice run in his recent trial,. Ready with Opie up.

Dangers:

9.Hypnos  won in a good speed rating on debut. Drawn well.

6.Princess Origami  looked good winning her trial and is the favourite- wide draw means she has to work early though.

7.Ritani is a nice mare and is ready to go fresh up.

Race 11

Confidence: 3/5

7.Cleaver  showed good ability on debut when sitting outside an even tempo and showed a good kick when attacked 100m out to draw away. The time and sectional splits were similar to the R65 race. Being by Guillotine, the better surface suits better, plus he gets 3kgs off with Wiremu Pinn up and maps to get a cosy run in behind an even tempo. John Wheeler doesn’t travel outside his area unless he has the goods, so he looks a good chance. RP $4.00, $7.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Konstantina  won fresh up last campaign and with a good tempo, could go close.

9.Flourishing  is a nice mare who will be improved by that fresh up 3rd. Better track suits.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!